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Scouting report: Xavier Musketeers visit No. 7 Marquette Golden Eagles on Sunday

Shelby Dermer, Cincinnati Enquirer
·5 min read

Xavier faces long odds at a possible NCAA Tournament berth and, in many ways, Wednesday's loss to Providence at Cintas Center felt like the final straw for a young, inconsistent team that was hanging on by a thread.

Realistically, there is still a sliver of a path to March Madness for Xavier, but it would need to likely capitalize on all three of its Quadrant 1 opportunities over its final five regular season games. Then, the Musketeers would probably need a decent run in the Big East Tournament next month at Madison Square Garden.

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Xavier will also need some help to claim a top-5 seed in the Big East Tournament. The Musketeers fell 1.5 games back of Providence after Wednesday's down-to-the-wire finish. Xavier has struggled mightily on the road this season, making winning the Marquette matchup an even taller task.

Here's everything to know about Sunday's matchup in Milwaukee.

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Xavier vs. Marquette scouting report

Tip: Sunday, 5 p.m., Fiserv Forum (17,385)

TV: FS1

Ratings: Marquette is No. 13 in KenPom while Xavier has dropped to No. 49. Marquette is also No. 13 in the NCAA NET Rankings and Xavier is No. 60.

KenPom's final score: Marquette 81, Xavier 72

History: According to Xavier Athletics, Marquette leads the all-time series 13-12. The two teams split the regular-season series last year before Marquette beat Xavier at Madison Square Garden in the Big East Tournament Championship.

Shaka Smart led Marquette to the program's first Big East title last season.
Shaka Smart led Marquette to the program's first Big East title last season.

Marquette Golden Eagles scouting report

Record: 20-6 (11-4 Big East)

Head coach: Shaka Smart (68-26 at Marquette, third season)

Offense: 78.8 ppg

Defense: 68.8 ppg

Overview: Unless Marquette goes into a complete free fall over the next month, Shaka Smart is going to make 11 NCAA Tournaments in his 15 seasons as a head coach between VCU, Texas and Marquette. Smart guided Marquette to the program's first Big East title last season (winning both the regular season and tournament title) but were upset in the second round of the NCAA Tournament by No. 7 Michigan State.

Marquette lost its only game this season as Fiserv Forum Jan. 10 to Butler, a 69-62 defeat that dropped the Golden Eagles to 2-3 in league play. Since then, Marquette has won nine of its last 10 games, with the only loss on the road to No. 1 UConn.

Marquette is one of 10 teams to have a top-25 offense (No. 23) and defense (No. 15) in KenPom. The Golden Eagles are one of the best 2-point shooting teams (No. 10) in the nation, knocking down 57.6% of its shots from inside the arc. Senior forward Oso Ighodaro is second in the Big East in field goal percentage (62.1%).

Guard Tyler Kolek leads the way for Marquette. He was the Big East Player of the Year last season and is making a strong case this season for a repeat. While averaging 15.2 points per game, he leads the Big East in assists (7.6) while shooting over 40% on 3-pointers. Kolek is part of an elite backcourt trio with Kam Jones and Stevie Mitchell, all three were starters for last year's Big East champions.

Marquette guard Tyler Kolek, pictured against Xavier last season, was the Big East Player of the Year in 2023.
Marquette guard Tyler Kolek, pictured against Xavier last season, was the Big East Player of the Year in 2023.

Projected lineup

(Pos., Height, Stats)

Tyler Kolek (G, 6'3", 15.2 ppg)

Stevie Mitchell (G, 6'3", 8.1 ppg)

Kam Jones (G, 6'5", 15.1 ppg)

David Joplin (F, 6'8", 10.5 ppg)

Oso Ighodaro (F, 6'11", 14.3 ppg)

Sean Millers' Musketeers are 13-13 and 7-8 in the Big East. Xavier is in dire need of some Quadrant 1 victories, such as a win over the Golden Eagles would provide.
Sean Millers' Musketeers are 13-13 and 7-8 in the Big East. Xavier is in dire need of some Quadrant 1 victories, such as a win over the Golden Eagles would provide.

Xavier Musketeers scouting report

Record: 13-13 (7-8 Big East)

Head coach: Sean Miller

Offense: 75.7 ppg

Defense: 73.2 ppg

Overview: Wednesday's loss had the feelings of a dream crusher for Xavier. Was it just a matter of time with Xavier lacking the depth due to inexperience and preseason injuries? Xavier brought plenty of energy against Providence, but simply couldn't sustain it on both sides of the ball during crunch time.

"I have no doubt, coaching our team, that we're wearing down," Miller said Wednesday.

According to KenPom, Xavier ranks 244th in the nation in bench minutes, with just 28.4% of playing time coming from substitutions. Miller opted not to sub as much Wednesday since Xavier had fresh legs after a week off between games, but it wouldn't matter as the Musketeers stumbled down the stretch.

Dayvion McKnight and the Musketeers starters have played a large amount of minutes as Sean Miller has been reluctant to go to a young and inexperienced bench.
Dayvion McKnight and the Musketeers starters have played a large amount of minutes as Sean Miller has been reluctant to go to a young and inexperienced bench.

Is 11 the magic number?

Since the Big East realigned in 2013, 41 of the 44 teams to go over .500 in conference play have made the NCAA Tournament. Xavier would need to win four of its final five games to go 11-9 against Big East foes.

It's a lot easier said than done.

Of those four wins, they'll need to snag at least two of the three Quadrant 1 games remaining in the two meetings with Marquette and at Butler March 6. While Xavier's played one of the nation's toughest schedules, they haven't taken advantage of it with a 2-9 record in Quadrant 1 games. Also, three of Xavier's final five games are on the road. The Musketeers are just 2-6 away from Cintas Center this year and weren't competitive in two of their last three road affairs, falling behind 24-7 to UConn in the opening 10 minutes and 18-2 to Seton Hall.

KenPom projects a 16-15 regular-season record for Xavier (10-10 Big East), with the Musketeers winning their two easiest remaining games (vs. DePaul, at Georgetown) and finding a Quad 1 win somewhere in the Marquette/Butler matchups.

Xavier Musketeers guard Quincy Olivari (8) looks to the student section after scoring and getting fouled during the first half Wednesday, February 21, 2024 at the Cintas Center.
Xavier Musketeers guard Quincy Olivari (8) looks to the student section after scoring and getting fouled during the first half Wednesday, February 21, 2024 at the Cintas Center.

Projected lineup

(Pos., Height, Stats)

Dayvion McKnight (G, 6'0", 12.1 ppg)

Quincy Olivari (G, 6'3", 19.1 ppg)

Desmond Claude (G, 6'6", 16.1 ppg)

Gytis Nemeiksa (F, 6'7", 6 ppg)

Sasa Ciani (F, 6'9", 3 ppg)

This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Big East: Can Xavier defy odds, road struggles vs. No. 7 Marquette?