Scouting the Patriots’ offense and defense for Week 10
The New England Patriots are next up for the Ravens, with the two sides meeting in Week 10. The Ravens need a win to keep up their hunt for a playoff berth, while the Patriots need to build on their victory over the New York Jets on Monday to kickstart their season from their present 3-5 standing.
Bill Belichick is the longest-tenured head coach in the NFL, and arguably one of the best of all time. But New England has not looked like their old selves so far this season. Tom Brady, the starting quarterback for most of the last two decades, is now sunning it in Florida with the Buccaneers, and the offense has struggled all season. Defensively, the Patriots have been several steps down from the dominant unit they were in 2019. Injuries, free-agent losses, and COVID-19 abstainers have hit them hard.
Let’s take a closer look at what the Ravens can expect to see from the Patriots this week.
Patriots offensive overview
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Josh McDaniels has held the role of offensive coordinator for New England since 2012. 2020 is not shaping up to be a season to remember for the boys under his wing. The Patriots have finished no lower than 8th in points scored since 2012, but they are currently 30th. They are 19th in yards gained, but the fact that 19% of their offensive drives have ended in a turnover has limited their ability to put points on the board. Only 38% of their drives have ended with a score. Football Outsiders has the Patriots ranked 24th in offensive DVOA. In neutral situations, the Patriots are perfectly balanced between pass and run, with a 50:50 pass to run ratio. The Patriots line up under center and in the shotgun equally, with a 50:50 split between the two. The Patriots line up in 11 personnel as their base grouping, but their 56% usage rate is below the league average of 60%. They use 21 personnel on 29% of their offensive plays, the second-highest rate in the NFL, and run the ball on 70% when two backs are on the field. The Ravens have called 91 play-action passes so far this season, the fourth-most in the league. They are middle of the pack in terms of RPOs with 32, but it's something to watch for with the considerable presence of Cam Newton in the backfield.
Patriots offense - Passing
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Through eight games, the Patriots have 1,618 passing yards. Only three teams have picked up fewer yards through the air. They only have three passing touchdowns, with the last one coming back in Week 4. New England's trio of quarterbacks Cam Newton, Brian Hoyer, and Jarrett Stidham have combined for 11 interceptions. Newton has played seven games in 2020 and he has the bulk of the passing yards with 1,417. He also has two of the passing scores and seven of the picks. Newton has had an issue with batted passes this season, with 10 of his attempts being batted down. This is the second-most in the league. Newton's on-target pass rate of 75.3% is 25th among NFL quarterbacks, while his Bad Throw rate (according to Pro Football Reference) of 19.9% is the seventh highest. Newton has not enjoyed stellar protection from his blockers either, feeling pressure on 23.8% of his dropbacks. This is the 9th highest rate felt by any quarterback this season. Damiere Byrd leads the Patriots with 26 receptions, which he has converted into 337 scoreless yards. James White is only one catch behind and has 195 yards. An emerging star in the passing game is Jakobi Meyers. The second-year wide receiver has commanded a whopping 38% of the teams' targets in the last three weeks, with 22 catches and 287 yards. The three players to catch touchdowns in 2020 are N'Keal Harry, Rex Burkhead, and fullback Jakob Johnson.
Patriots offense - Rushing
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The Baltimore Ravens are the only team with more rushing attempts this season than the Patriots, who have run the ball 262 times. Their 1,277 team rushing yards are the fourth-most in the league. The 49ers are the only team with more rushing touchdowns than the 13 notched by New England. Cam Newton leads the team with 69 rushing attempts and eight touchdowns, although he does trail Damien Harris in yardage. Harris has 350 while Newton isn't too far behind with 314. Rex Burkhead's 57 attempts have seen him gain 236 yards and score three times.
Patriots defensive overview
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The Patriots don't have a named defensive coordinator, but the man charged with calling the defensive plays is Steve Belichick, the outside linebackers coach, and son of Bill. New England ranks 12th in both points and yards allowed. According to Football Outsiders, the Patriots actually rank 31st in the NFL, ahead of only the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Patriots are not what you would describe as a high percentage blitzing defense. They've called 80 blitzes so far this season, more than just 10 teams. But in terms of blitz rate, their rate of 33.2% is the 11th highest.
Patriots defense - Passing
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The Patriots have allowed 1,775 passing yards this season, the sixth-fewest in 2020. They're allowing the tenth-highest completion percentage across the league at 67.8%. New England has allowed 10 receiving touchdowns and have intercepted 12 passes. Only the Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have more picks than the Patriots. New England has only recorded 11 sacks all season and are tied for 29th with 33 quarterback hits. Their sack rate of 5.0% is the 11th lowest in the league. J.C. Jackson leads the team with five interceptions, while Devin McCourty has two. But Jackson has allowed three touchdowns in coverage while McCourty has surrendered four. Stephon Gilmore, the NFL Defensive Player of the Year in 2019, has not been as shut down as he was last year. Although he's been far from awful. 16 of the 30 passes in his general area have completed for 218 yards and a touchdown. Chase Winovich has the most sacks for the Patriots with 2.5 so far. New England's most frequent blitzers have been Ja'Whaun Bentley (31) and Adrian Phillips (26). But they've combined for just 2 hurries, a knockdown, and 1.5 sacks.
Patriots defense - Rushing
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New England has allowed the 11th most rushing yards in 2020, giving up 1,048 at an average of 4.5 yards per attempt. Only seven teams are allowing more rushing yards per game than the Patriots, who are allowing 131. Missed tackles have not been a huge problem for New England, with only 38 on the season so far. The Colts are the only team to have fewer than this. But they've not been able to hold rushers behind the line of scrimmage, with just 24 tackles for loss on the year. The Bengals have 21, and they are the only team below the Patriots in this category.
