Santucci: First FHSAA power rankings don't pass the eyeball test

The Florida High School Athletic Association is about to release its second set of power rankings, so let’s take a minute to talk about what we learned from the first.

Before we go any further, let me say I really like the power rankings concept. The postseason is better now than it was 10 years ago when every district champion and district runner-up advanced to the playoffs. Too many bad teams were being rewarded for being in bad districts while deserving teams in elite districts were left out.

For the most part, that’s been fixed. The most recent improvement of not automatically giving a top-four seed to a district champion was a big plus.

Let’s also get this out of the way, the first set of power rankings in late September will be wildly different from the ones we see in early November – and that’s the only one that matters.

But the FHSAA releases them each week and a lot of people are talking about it. (Anyone else enjoy Venice playing up how big of an underdog it was against Sarasota Riverside based on the power rankings this past week?)

And, as always, there are some confusing things that will be worth watching over the next month-plus. Part of the confusion is the simple reality that MaxPreps isn’t transparent in how it calculates the ranking. So, we’re left to read and react.

For example, are there really 350 teams in Florida better than Miami Northwestern? Heck, are there really eight teams with the word “North” in their school’s name better than Northwestern?

Yes, the Bulls were 1-4 through the first five weeks but is losing to Vero Beach, Venice and Edison and Columbus really make you worse than a 4-1 team that hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record.

Which leads to our first issue.

It simply doesn’t pass the eyeball test

There’s a reason why the computer system failed in college football. It didn't always add up. This isn’t a plea for the FHSAA to have human oversight … at least not after Week 5. But the first power rankings simply don’t look right. Here’s a couple examples (and there are many of them.)

Lakeland: The defending Class 4S champions were ranked No. 1 in Class 4S after Week 5. A few hours later, the FHSAA power rankings said the Dreadnaughts were fifth … in their region. Lakeland, which is 3-2 with losses to two nationally ranked opponents, is No. 92 in the state, 17^th in Class 4S and third of teams in Lakeland.

Jones: The Tigers are No. 34 in Class 3M, No. 226 in the state and are not one of the top eight teams in their region. Their losses are against Cocoa (No. 1 Class 2S), Our Lady of Good Counsel (Maryland, No. 35 nationally) and Edgewater (No. 2 Class 3M).

Two of the teams that are currently No. 1 in their class in the power rankings aren’t ranked in the USA Today poll or in the top 10 on the MaxPreps state polls.

The power rankings determine postseason teams, but punishes teams preparing for the postseason

That’s a really long-winded way of saying wins matter too much and scheduling doesn’t matter enough. (More on schedules later.) But good teams are going to schedule elite competition early in the season because it helps prepare them for the playoffs. In every one of those games between two good teams, someone is going to lose. Wins should matter, but the power rankings shouldn’t reward mediocre teams who have padded their schedule against lesser competition. Seriously, just go through the power rankings and ask yourself how many of the top 200 teams are beating Jones on the field or how many of the top 350 are beating Northwestern. Those teams aren’t perfect squads but they’re definitely better than most of the teams ahead of them. Maybe their power rankings would look better if they played inferior opponents instead of trying to be a become a better team.

Strength of schedule doesn’t really add up

So, the strength of schedule component has some issues and it appears to be rewarding teams for losing. Miami Central had the toughest strength of schedule in the state at 16.06. There is no questioning the difficulty of the Rockets schedule during the first five weeks (Bishop Gorman, Booker T. Washington and Chaminade-Madonna). But Chaminade, which played five nationally ranked opponents during the first five weeks, has a strength of schedule rating of 10.66. That’s more than five points less than Central. The difference? Central lost to Bishop Gorman and Chaminade, so they have two undefeated teams on their strength of schedule. Chaminade is undefeated, so all five of their opponents have a loss. So, if you lose, your strength of schedule goes up and if you win it goes down. It sort of makes sense, unless you really think about it. If Central beats Chaminade, it somehow would have played a weaker schedule than if they lost. The reality is that Chaminade is Chaminade whether they win or lose. Maybe head-to-head matchups should be factored differently or eliminated completely.

Not all schedules are created equal

Pretending that all wins and losses are the same isn’t realistic and strength of schedule should reflect that. Consider Class 2S for example Cocoa has the highest strength of schedule at 8.08, while Dunnellon Is second at 7.86. That’s pretty close to even. So, the formula says their schedules are equally difficult. But are they?

Cocoa: Jones, Venice, St. Thomas Aquinas, Eau Gallie. Combined record: 12-7

Dunnellon: West Port, Vanguard, Williston, Forest. Combined record: 14-5

Ok. But what about the programs they played?

Cocoa: Jones (2022 Class 3M regional champion), Venice (2022 Class 4S state runner-up), St. Thomas Aquinas (2022 Class 3M state champion), Eau Gallie (2022 Class 3S regional quarterfinalist)

Dunnellon: West Port (4-6 in 2022), Vanguard (2022 Class 3S regional semifinalist), Williston (Class 1R regional quarterfinalist), Forest (5-5 in 2022)

These schedules aren’t the same. That’s not some diss at Dunnellon. It’s just a reality. So why do the rankings say these schedules are basically the same?

This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: Santucci: First FHSAA power rankings don't pass the eyeball test