In Roob's Observations: The importance of a more unpredictable passing game
In Roob's Observations: The importance of a more unpredictable passing game originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia
The importance of varying the passing game, a salute to Fletcher Cox's toughness and a look at the Eagles' 4th-quarter defensive issues.
Here's this week's edition of Roob's 10 Random Eagles Observations:
1. D’Andre Swift’s receiving yards are down from 30 per game with the Lions to 9 per game with the Eagles. Dallas Goedert has gone from 57 yards per game the last two years to 22 per game this year. Before he got hurt, Quez Watkins was targeted twice for 17 yards after averaging 29 yards per game and 9 yards per target the last two years. Olamide Zaccheaus caught two passes for 58 yards and a TD in Tampa and has two targets for 11 yards on 103 offensive snaps in the Eagles’ three other games. You can’t miss the pattern. On the one hand, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are so dang good you can understand why 60 percent of the targets, 58 percent of the catches and 73 percent of the yards have gone their way. But for this offense to really operate at peak efficiency, Nick Sirianni, Brian Johnson and Jalen Hurts have to diversify just a bit. The offense has been effective much of the year, but if the Eagles just become a little more unpredictable, a little more varied, a little more multiple, they’ll be unstoppable. The weapons are there. Getting some other people involved in the passing game will make defenses play the Eagles a little more honest. And that in turn will only help Brown and Smith.
2. Eight Eagles have made their NFL debut this year. Five of them are defensive backs (Sydney Brown, Mario Goodrich, Tristin McCollum, Eli Ricks, Kelee Ringo). That’s already the 3rd-most Eagles defensive backs who’ve made their NFL debut in a single season (not including the 1987 replacement players). In 2010 and 2021 they had six d-backs play their first game – Nate Allen, Colt Anderson, Jorrick Calvin, Brandon Hughes, Trevard Lindley and Jamar Wall in 2010 and Andre Chachere, Tay Gowan, Mac McCain, Zech McPhearson, JaCoby Stevens and Kary Vincent Jr. in 2021.
3. The Eagles are the sixth team in NFL history to win at least 14 games one year and open the next season 4-0. The others: The 1979 Steelers, 1987 Bears, 1990 49ers, 2004 Patriots and 2006 Colts. The Steelers, 49ers, Patriots and Colts all won the Super Bowl the year before opening the next season with at least four straight wins. The Bears had lost a conference semifinal game in the strike season. The 49ers won their first 10, the Colts their first nine and the Patriots their first six. The Bears and Steelers, like the Eagles so far, opened up 4-0.
4. Fletcher Cox doesn’t get enough credit for how tough he is. He rarely misses games with injuries, and you know if he’s not playing Sunday he’s really in tremendous pain. Plus the fact that you don’t want a guy with a bad back taking two five-hour flights in a row. Cox has played 188 of a possible 192 games since he was drafted in 2012, and two of the four games he missed were the last day of seasons (2012, 2020) when there was no reason for him to play. He missed two games in 2017 with a calf strain and that’s it. The only defensive linemen to play more games than Cox since 2012 are Cameron Jordan of the Saints and Jerry Hughes, now with the Texans. Fletch has been around so long he played with Nnamdi, Babin and Mike Patterson. Now in his 12th season with the Eagles, Cox has been very good this year. We talk about Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis all the time, but Fletch has played the most snaps of all the Eagles’ defensive linemen – 46 per game. Carter, Milton Williams and Davis are all between 26 and 32 per game. Those numbers will have to go up Sunday and we might see Kentavius Street as well. He actually played over 500 snaps for the Saints last year. But as deep and as talented as the Eagles are up front, no question they’ll miss Cox.
5. We’ve seen the Eagles’ defense struggle at times this year and they’ve dropped from 2ndin the NFL in yards allowed to 16th, from 1st to 27th in passing yards allowed, from 13th to 18th in first downs allowed, from 14th to 25th in third down conversions, from 7th to 17th in points allowed. They have improved from 16th to 2nd in run defense. Obviously, a lot of the declines have to do with personnel and trying to replace C.J. Gardner-Johnson, T.J. Edwards, Marcus Epps, Javon Hargrave and Kyzir White. And a lot has to do with injuries on that side of the ball. But to compound all that has been a complete overhaul of the coaching staff. Not just Sean Desai replacing Jonathan Gannon but D.J. Eliot replacing linebackers coach Nick Rallis, D.K. McDonald replacing secondary coach Dennard Wilson, safeties coach Joe Kasper leaving for the Dolphins as well as the addition of three outside coaches - senior defensive assistant Matt Patricia, assistant d-backs coach Taver Johnson and nickel coach Ronell Williams. The only defensive coaches back in the same role as last year are Tracy Rocker and Jeremiah Washburn, who work with the defensive tackles and edge rushers. The Eagles had eight defensive coaches last year and only two are back in the same position. Nick Sirianni has shown a good ability to hire talented coaches, so you’d expect things to calm down as the season goes along, but that’s a ton of change on one side of the ball, both in personnel and coaching.
6. This is somewhat alarming: Mac Jones, Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield and Sam Howell in the fourth quarter against the Eagles are 41-for-62 (66 percent) for 456 yards with five TD passes, no interceptions and a 115.3 passer rating - worst in the NFL. Going back to the middle of last year, the Eagles have now gone 15 games without a 4th-quarter interception. They’ve allowed 13 4th-quarter passing TDs since their last 4th-quarter interception – Chauncey Gardner-Johnson’s off Taylor Heinicke last November. Since then, the Eagles have faced 159 pass attempts without an interception. The Eagles have held on and are 4-0 despite being outscored 42-26 in the fourth quarter. They've allowed the 27th-most 4th-quarter points this year. The fourth quarter is when you want to be at your best, and way too often so far the Eagles have just been trying to hang on in the fourth quarter.
7. Sirianni is the seventh consecutive Eagles head coach who’ll finish his third season with a winning record. That’s wild. The last Eagles head coach who didn’t have a winning record after three years was Marion Campbell, who was 17-29-1 from 1983 through 1985 (and was fired with one game left in 1985). Since then (not counting 1987 strike games played with replacement players), it’s been Buddy Ryan (22-21-1, .511), Rich Kotite (29-19, .604), Ray Rhodes (26-21-1, .552), Andy Reid (27-21, .563), Chip Kelly (26-21, .553) and Doug Pederson (29-19, .604). The only other Eagles coaches who had winning records after three years are Jim Trimble (21-13-2 from 1952 through 1954) and Buck Shaw (19-16-1 from 1958 through 1960). At 27-11 with 13 games left, Sirianni is already guaranteed a winning record at the end of this season.
5. Derek Barnett has now gone 315 snaps over his last 11 games without a sack. Barnett’s last sack came Nov. 14, 2021, in Denver when he sacked Teddy Bridgewater. Barnett is rarely included along with Fireman Danny, Marcus Smith, Freddie Mitchell, Jalen Reagor and Michael Haddix when people discuss Eagles 1st-round busts. Probably because he’s now in his seventh year here, and most of their 1st-round disasters are gone within a couple years. But Barnett is one of only 12 defensive ends ever drafted with a top-14 pick to play 69 or more games and record fewer than 22 career sacks. The Eagles obviously still believe in him because he's in his seventh year here and still getting 15 snaps a game. Maybe he’s about to turn the corner. But he’s now got two sacks in his last 24 games. Nick Morrow just had three in one game. And they cut him. Barnett’s Pro Football Focus grade of 59.3 so far this year ranks 84th out of 124 edge rushers who’ve played at least 50 snaps. Since Barnett was drafted in 2017, his 21 ½ sacks are 92nd-most in the league. Even factoring in that he’s missed most of two seasons with injuries, really a monumental disappointment. There was another edge rusher available at 14. T.J. Watt.
8. There’s no way to know yet whether Bradley Roby will pan out. You never know with these types of acquisitions. Roby was released by the Saints in final cuts and was out of football for five weeks before signing to the Eagles’ practice squad. He’s 31, he’s on his fourth team in six years and he was one of the NFL’s lowest rated corners last year according to Pro Football Focus. If he does pan out and starts at least one game? With 32-year-old Darius Slay and 30-year-old James Bradberry starting outside and Roby inside, the Eagles would become only seventh team in NFL history with three starting corners in their 30s, the first since the 2007 Ravens (Corey Ivy, Chris McAlister, Samari Rolle). The only team to ever use three starting corners in their 30s and have a winning record was the 2003 Saints (Ashley Ambrose, Dale Carter, Fred Thomas).
9. This is wild, but Jake Elliott already has 12th-most field goals of 54 yards or more in NFL history, according to the Stathead field goal finder. Elliott is 10-for-16 all-time from 54 yards and out – but has made six of his last seven. The top four on that list are Matt Prater (30), Greg Zuerlein (24), Sebastien Jankowski (23) and Justin Tucker (20). His three this year have him halfway to the record of six, shared by Jason Myers in 2018 and Daniel Carlson and Matt Gay last year.
10. Since 2002, the Eagles are 11-6 on the West Coast, and that .611 winning percentage is highest among all teams not based on the West Coast. The Seahawks are 130-73 in the Pacific Time Zone for a .640 winning percentage, and the Eagles are 2nd-highest. The Falcons (12-8, .600) and Commanders (9-6, .600) are the only other teams over .600. The worst West Coast records during that span belong to the Lions (2-13, .133), Jaguars (3-13, .188) and Browns and Steelers (both 4-11, .267).
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