Reveiwing the Oregon Ducks’ Football Power Index ranking since 2005
Life for an Oregon Duck fan has been quite eventful over the past couple of decades.
After going for decades as a relatively irrelevant team on the national landscape, Mike Bellotti turned things around at the start of the Melinium and a rise to prominence quickly followed. The start of the 2010s brought multiple trips to the National Championship game and a pair of Rose Bowl victories, but Oregon has also seen brutal losses at the hands of Auburn and Ohio State, as well as a 4-win season that ended in no bowl game and a fired coach just years later.
In recent years, things have still been a bit rocky off of the field with a litany of coaching changes, but the on-field product has remained stellar. In 2022, Dan Lanning proved his worth early on, becoming just the fifth coach in Oregon history to notch 10 wins in a single season, and the third to do it during his first year with the team.
By all accounts, there is real confidence that the Ducks are on a trajectory that could land them in the College Football Playoff and competing for a national championship in the coming years.
This past week, ESPN published its updated Football Power Index (FPI) which measures team strength based on 20,000 simulations as explained on their website.
This year the Ducks have the following preseason FPI ratings:
FPI: 15.0
Overall Ranking: No. 13
Pac-12 Ranking: No. 2
According to those numbers, the Ducks should not only be in a great spot to compete for a spot in the Pac-12 Championship, but if things break the right way down the stretch, they could very well be in the mix for a spot in the College Football Playoff, as well.
We wanted to see how the numbers at the start of this year compared to those in the past, though. Here is Ducks Wire breaks down each final FPI dating back to 2005:
2005
(Photo by Donald Miralle/Getty Images)
FPI: 16.6
Final Record: 10-2
Overall Ranking: No. 13
Pac-12 Ranking: No. 2
Bowl Game: Loss to Oklahoma in the Holiday Bowl (17-14)
2006
(Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
FPI: 10.8
Final Record: 7-6
Overall Ranking: No. 27
Pac-12 Ranking: No. 3
Bowl Game: Loss to BYU in Las Vegas Bowl (38-8)
2007
(Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
FPI: 19.8
Final Record: 9-4
Overall Ranking: No. 7
Pac-12 Ranking: No. 2
Bowl Game: Win over Southern Florida in Sun Bowl (56-21)
2008
(AP Photo/Tom Strickland)
FPI: 17.7
Final Record: 10-3
Overall Ranking: No. 8
Pac-12 Ranking: No. 2
Bowl Game: Win over Oklahoma State in Holiday Bowl (42-31)
2009
(Photo by Steve Dykes/Getty Images)
FPI: 16.5
Final Record: 10-3
Overall Ranking: No. 9
Pac-12 Ranking: No. 1
Bowl Game: Loss to Ohio State in Rose Bowl (26-17)
2010
Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-USA TODAY Sports
FPI: 28.2
Overall Ranking: No. 1
Pac-12 Ranking: No. 1
Bowl Game: Loss to Auburn in National Championship (22-19)
2011
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
FPI: 26.4
Final Record: 12-2
Overall Ranking: No. 4
Pac-12 Ranking: No. 1
Bowl Game: Win over Wisconsin in Rose Bowl (45-38)
2012
Scott Olmos-USA TODAY Sports
FPI: 25.0
Final Record: 12-1
Overall Ranking: No. 2
Pac-12 Ranking: No. 1
Bowl Game: Win over Kansas State in Fiesta Bowl (35-17)
2013
(Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images)
FPI: 27.2
Final Record: 11-2
Overall Ranking: No. 3
Pac-12 Ranking: No. 1
Bowl Game: Win over Texas in Alamo Bowl (30-7)
2014
Scott Olmos-USA TODAY Sports
FPI: 28.3
Final Record: 13-2
Overall Ranking: No. 1
Pac-12 Ranking: No. 1
Bowl Game: Loss to Ohio State in National Championship (42-20)
2015
Scott Olmos-USA TODAY Sports
FPI: 14.4
Final Record: 9-4
Overall Ranking: No. 23
Pac-12 Ranking: No. 4
Bowl Game: Loss to TCU in Alamo Bowl (47-41 3OT)
2016
(Photo by Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images)
FPI: 3.6
Final Record: 4-8
Overall Ranking: No. 61
Pac-12 Ranking: No. 9
Bowl Game: None
2017
Scott Olmos-USA TODAY Sports
FPI: 9.4
Final Record: 7-6
Overall Ranking: No. 28
Pac-12 Ranking: No. 14
Bowl Game: Loss to Boise State in Las Vegas Bowl (38-38)
2018
Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
FPI: 9.9
Final Record: 9-4
Overall Ranking: No. 31
Pac-12 Ranking: No. 5
Bowl Game: Win over Michigan State in Red Box Bowl (7-6)
2019
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
FPI: 21.7
Final Record:12-2
Overall Ranking: No. 6
Pac-12 Ranking: No. 1
Bowl Game: Win over Wisconsin in Rose Bowl (28-27)
2020
Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
FPI: 14.3
Final Record: 4-3
Overall Ranking: No. 17
Pac-12 Ranking: No. 1
Bowl Game: Loss to Iowa State in Fiesta Bowl (34-17)
2021
Daniel Dunn-USA TODAY Sports
FPI: 8.4
Final Record: 10-4
Overall Ranking: No. 30
Pac-12 Ranking: No. 2
Bowl Game: Loss to Oklahoma in Alamo Bowl (47-32)
2022
John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
FPI: 10.2
Final record: 10-3
Overall Ranking: No. 23
Pac-12 Ranking: No. 2
Bowl Game: Win over North Carolina in Holiday Bowl (28-27)
