Reporters roundtable: What doomed Ohio State in third straight rivalry loss to Michigan?
Editor's note: After each Ohio State football game, beat reporters Joey Kaufman and Bill Rabinowitz discuss the lasting storylines and other key developments.
Ryan Day said he was sick.
The aftermath of Ohio State’s 30-24 loss at Michigan on Saturday left him with an uneasy feeling.
It marked the third consecutive defeat the Buckeyes had suffered at the hands of their archrival.
“We worked a whole year for it,” Day said, “and we came up short.”
The setback is uncharted territory in this century for the Buckeyes. The losing streak against the Wolverines is their longest since 1995-97.
The outcome of the 119th edition of The Game is likely to cost Ohio State a berth in the College Football Playoff, keeping it out of the national championship race, but also reinforced the idea that Day’s program has a Michigan problem.
Kaufman: The narratives that followed the Buckeyes in their previous losses to the Wolverines were easy to define. They were outmuscled in the trenches in 2021, out-gained by more than 200 rushing yards. They gave up too many big plays in 2022, allowing five touchdowns of at least 45 yards. But there was no single issue to pinpoint as the root cause of a defeat that went down to the final drive, right?
Rabinowitz: There were plenty of turning points. The early interception Michigan turned into a touchdown that caused Ohio State to play from behind. The non-reversal of the touchdown on Denzel Burke's strip. Day's decision to settle for a 52-yard field goal at the end of the first half. We could go on for a while. But also credit Michigan for playing nearly a perfect game. Especially after rewatching the game for my DVR review, I thought Ohio State played well overall. But not well enough. So it'll be a long, tough offseason with whatever bowl they're in a brief respite.
Kaufman: If there is a defining narrative following this loss, it involves Day’s fourth-down management. In addition to the decision to attempt the field goal on fourth-and-2 late in the second quarter, he also opted against going for it on a fourth-and-1 at the Buckeyes’ 46-yard line on their second drive. It was in contrast to acting Michigan coach Sherrone Moore, who went for it on fourth down three times. The Wolverines had better field position in those situations. Keep that in mind. All of them were on Ohio State’s side of the 50, including one at the goal line, but there is a perception that he has become too conservative against Michigan.
Rabinowitz: The one at the end of the first half is more objectionable. Jayden Fielding's longest successful kick is 47 yards and this was a 52-yarder. A first down makes the field goal much more manageable and makes a touchdown at the end of the half possible. What a momentum boost it would have been to go to halftime ahead. Michigan was creative on offense. The halfback pass by Donovan Edwards was the longest gain of the day for Michigan.
Kaufman: The Buckeyes have tried trickeration in the past. Remember when they were lined up for a fake punt in the third quarter last season? Long snapper Mason Arnold hiked the ball to punter Jesse Mirco instead of the upbacks in the backfield, botching the attempt. But there wasn't anything up their sleeve this past weekend.
Rabinowitz: The Buckeyes also didn't get the benefit of the refereeing, but that's often a loser's lament. Xavier Johnson appeared to have gotten an early first down that was marked short. The Denzel Burke strip of Roman Wilson at the goal line was a 50-50 play. It's hard to know whether Wilson had sufficient possession when he reached the end zone, but that was a 7-point play. On Michigan's last drive, the Wolverines got away with offensive pass interference to keep the drive alive. Again, it's a loser's lament, but it was another way OSU had an uphill battle.
Kaufman: Falling behind in a 14-3 hole did not help the Buckeyes. The deficit allowed Michigan to lean on its ground game, running the ball nearly two-thirds of the time and bleeding clock while it held a late lead. In the fourth quarter, the Wolverines maintained possession for 10 out of the 15 minutes, most of them on 13-play drive that lasted for seven minutes. Had Ohio State instead been ahead early, it would have put more stress on Michigan, which was able to pick its spots as a result.
Rabinowitz: That early touchdown was huge, no doubt. But OSU fought back to tie it at 17 in the third quarter and it looked like the Buckeyes were in position to take control. But the defense allowed a touchdown and it was back to playing behind. They still had a chance at the end, though it's a lot to ask a team to go 81 yards in one minute with no timeouts. If Kyle McCord hadn't been hit on the last throws, who knows? And the narrative out of the game would have been completely different. That's why the loss was so excruciating for OSU.
Kaufman: A favorite stat for Jim Knowles, the Buckeyes' defensive coordinator, is stop rate. It's the percentage of a defense's drives that end in punts, turnovers or turnovers on down. Through 11 games, the Buckeyes had an 82% stop rate, ranking second in the Football Bowl Subdivision. But they didn't get once get a stop in the second half on Saturday. Excluding the final kneel-down, all four of Michigan's drives in the third and fourth quarters resulted in a touchdown or field goal. Over three straight losses to the Wolverines, they have forced a punt only once in the second half.
Rabinowitz: That is an amazing stat. This game was obviously more competitive than the last two, which makes the sting for OSU even worse. Added to it is the knowledge that it ended Ohio State's Big Ten title hopes and almost certainly its chances for the College Football Playoff. But I think what is even more painful is that it happened while Michigan is in the middle of its sign-stealing scandal. OSU wanted Michigan to feel a comeuppance. That didn't happen. It's going to be another long offseason for the Buckeyes, regardless of what happens in their bowl game.
Joey Kaufman covers Ohio State football for The Columbus Dispatch. Follow him on Facebook and X, the platform formerly known as Twitter. He can also be contacted at jkaufman@dispatch.com.
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This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: Ohio State football reporters roundtable following loss to Michigan
