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Report: John Wall contract buyout with Rockets is matter of when, not if

ben dubose
·4 min read
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It’s a matter of when, not if for John Wall and a contract buyout with the Houston Rockets, per ESPN’s Tim MacMahon. The 6-foot-4 guard is owed nearly $92 million over the next two seasons.

Wall, a five-time NBA All-Star, averaged 20.6 points and 6.9 assists in 32.2 minutes per game during his first season in Houston.

“I think we all understand that it’s a matter of when, not if, the buyout talks heat up again,” MacMahon said on the newly released “Brian Windhorst & The Hoop Collective” podcast. “You can’t do it with $92 million left, but (maybe) when there’s $47 million left on his last year?”

Former NBA executive John Hollinger recently outlined a scenario in The Athletic where Wall could be bought out sooner:

Do we think John Wall could get two years, $20 million in free agency right now? If he’s the caliber of player who could still start for some teams, even with the health questions, that seems a fair price — maybe even on the low side. And if so, does it make more sense for Houston to accept that haircut in a buyout deal with Wall rather than keeping him around for another year of nightly drubbings?

Such an arrangement would be similar to Blake Griffin’s with Detroit, except Wall wouldn’t even have to leave any money on the table. Houston would lower its cap hit over the next two years from $92 million to (roughly) $72 million, and Tilman Fertitta would no doubt be elated that he could spread the payments over five seasons. (This is true even if the Rockets do not use the stretch provision on the cap hit.)

Wall turns 31 years old this offseason, and with an extensive career injury history, the team with the league’s worst record this season may not be the best fit for the dwindling years of his NBA prime.

Houston would undoubtedly love to trade Wall, rather than settle for a buyout. However, positive trade value isn’t likely to be there for a 31-year-old who is paid like one of the game’s top five players — but clearly isn’t of that stature. Assuming that’s the case, the rebuilding Rockets would likely prefer a buyout, relative to scenarios where they’d need to attach sweetener (i.e. future draft assets) to offload Wall’s contract.

But even in buyout scenarios, Houston isn’t likely to be interested in paying Wall significant money for years and years — along with having that figure attached to the team’s salary cap — to play for another team. General manager Rafael Stone would want the number to be reasonable.

Whether a buyout happens in 2021 or is tabled until at least a year from now, a lot of it will likely come down to how much money Wall is willing to give back in exchange for moving to a better team.

For example, if Wall pledged to turn down the player option on his contract for the 2022-23 season, he would effectively become an expiring contract for 2021-22 — which would make trade and/or buyout scenarios far more palatable to the team. However, as a free agent, he wouldn’t be likely to make anywhere near the $47.4 million figure that he’s currently owed for 2022-23. Is that something Wall is willing to do?

Only Wall can answer that question. But as Houston wraps up its 2020-21 season this weekend and begins shaping its roster for 2021-22, it’s a storyline worth monitoring in the coming weeks and months.

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