The Regression Files: Week 3
You may ask why Puka Nacua is not the cover guy of this week’s Regression Files.
The rookie has to crash back to statistical earth at some point, you cry out, sweat on your brow, wishing more than anything that you had taken Nacua in the late rounds of your drafts.
I take great pleasure in reporting we don’t worry about regression for the guy leading the entire NFL in targets, and importantly, first-read targets. And if you’re clamoring for Puka regression talk, this might put you into a coma: Nacua through Week 2 is under his expected fantasy points. In other words, he has underperformed his massive, mind-breaking opportunity in the pass-heavy Rams offense.
But enough about the most important player in fantasy football.
Spotting guys who overperformed their opportunity and those who were on the wrong side of what we’ll call variance — because “luck” is so crass — can help us with waiver wire additions, start-sits, and sneaky DFS plays, if you’re into that sort of thing.
We’ll start with players who have run cold through two weeks, and who might be due for something of a bounceback in Week 3.
Regression Candidates (The Good Kind)
Quarterback
Justin Herbert (LAC)
The Chargers, after posting the league’s lowest neutral pass rate in Week 1, were among the league leaders in neutral pass rate against the pass-funnel Titans in Week 2. Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore seems to have embraced the Do What It Takes approach to offense.
While Herbert had a fine outing against Tennessee (305 yards, two touchdowns), slightly more exciting days could be ahead of those who drafted QB whose arm resembles a medium-sized cannon. Herbert so far hasn’t made the most of his high-value attempts, completing five of his nine throws inside the ten yard line for a measly two touchdowns. Only Tua has more green zone attempts through two games -- and no one has more red zone passes than Herbert.
Herbert’s modest fantasy output doesn’t quite reflect how good the Bolts’ passing attack has been. They have the NFL’s seventh highest drop back success rate and rank fifth in EPA per play. The touchdowns: They are coming.
Trevor Lawrence (JAC)
There you are, a wallflower at a house party this coming weekend, sipping your drink and watching folks having fun and carrying on. The box score bros, you mutter, don’t know Lawrence almost had four touchdown passes in Week 2 against the Chiefs.
None of the Jacksonville wideouts could get two feet in bounds on four gorgeous throws from Lawrence in the team’s pathetic nine-point outing against the Chiefs. Nevertheless, we persist. Through Week 2, Lawrence has 11 attempts in the red zone, sixth among quarterbacks. Two of those 11 throws have gone for touchdowns. I refuse to believe Jacksonville’s passing offense is the worst in the NFL, as the analytics tell us. Look for a bounce back — hopefully an outsized one — in Week 3 against the Texans.
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Running Back
Josh Jacobs (LV)
The corrupt and dishonest mainstream media will tell you I highlighted Jacobs as the good kind of regression candidate in last week’s column. I refuse to confirm or deny these reports.
Fresh off rushing for -2 yards on nine carries against a Buffalo defense that was shredded by the Jets rushing attack in Week 1, Jacobs remains a regression-adjacent player. He once again dominated the Raiders’ backfield touches before being pulled in the fourth quarter of a blowout loss to the Bills on Sunday. Jacobs was targeted on six of his 14 pass routes through three quarters, totaling 51 yards through the air. He remains the Only Game In Town for Josh McDaniels.
That Jakobi Meyers — the most important player in Raiders history — is returning this week from a brain injury should help everyone in the Vegas offense.
Dameon Pierce (HOU)
The so-called experts told you drafting Pierce would be fun. They said you would not stop smiling all season; your face, they said, would hurt from all the smiling. They said it would make you a better parent and improve your relationships.
Rostering Pierce has been something short of fun through two weeks. But the second-year back is seeing the kind of playing time and getting the sort of opportunities we want. Pierce has four of the Texans’ five red zone rushing attempts, and against the Colts in Week 2, he was in for all four goal line snaps. No running back has a lower fantasy points over expected this season.
Better, more touchdown-driven days could be ahead for Pierce, though he has next to zero upside with every other Houston back seeing passing down work. Don’t yank him from your lineups quite yet. The folks who raved about Pierce’s preseason usage are looking very strongly into new hobbies.
Wide Receiver
Michael Pittman (IND)
You weren’t jumping on your kitchen table after seeing Pittman go for 56 scoreless yards in Week 2 against a terrible Houston secondary. Buddy, you better clear that table and stretch those hamstrings because Pittman’s usage will make you want to jump. Or maybe just smile. It’s hard to say.
Pittman, who had a hefty 40 percent target share against the Texans, has been targeted on 27 percent of his routes through two games. That’s good. His low 5.8 average depth of target (aDOT) probably means he’ll continue gobbling up PPR points as the Colts’ far-and-away WR1. Only three wideouts have more targets than Pittman as of this writing. The Colts not being nearly as run heavy as some of us feared should mean (far) better days are ahead for Pittman.
Indy should be forced to air it out this week against the Ravens. Prepare for the table jump.
DeAndre Hopkins (TEN)
Hopkins is doomed to be a Regression Files mainstay. Please do not tell him. I take no pleasure in constantly telling you Nuke’s utilization is fantastic.
Through two games, Hopkins has the NFL’s sixth highest rate of first read targets (42.3 percent) and a 36 percent target share (Treylon Burks’ first-read target rate sits at 7.7 percent). How much that means in a Titans offense straight out of the Vietnam era is up to you. Hopkins’ 35 percent slot rate should be good for scammy PPR production if and when the Titans are pushed into a pass-heavy script.
A.J. Brown (PHI)
Brown spoke for those who drafted him in fantasy leagues last Thursday when he made his immense displeasure known to Eagles players and coaches. A.J., thank you sir. Keep agitating, sir.
Better days are coming for AJB in an Eagles offense with the league’s tightest target distribution. While DeVonta Smith devours the team’s air yards (seeing 60 percent of the air yards to 24 percent for Brown) and has an average depth of target roughly three times higher than Brown’s, it’s Brown who has the higher targets per route run (21 percent) through Week 2. He came oh-so-terribly-close to a 30-yard score against the Vikings on Thursday night, having his touchdown negated by a penalty.
Then there’s the squeaky wheel narrative. No alpha wideout wants to play second fiddle, especially the one for whom the enemy speaks kindly and holds a knife. The squeaky wheel is the purest form of analytics.
Jonathan Mingo (CAR)
Touting a Panthers player is probably the road to ruin for fantasy football analysts. But I only do what the numbers tell me to do, nothing more or less. So get mad at the numbers, not me.
Mingo has a hefty, team-leading 91 percent route participation rate over the season’s first two games. His 18.4 percent target share leads Carolina, though the Panthers’ run heaviness (they’re 28th in pass rate over expected) means that heady target share has translated to 13 targets. Mingo’s 45 percent air yards share is the eighth highest rate among all NFL receivers. He’s had no help through two games: Bryce Young, by many measures the league’s worst starting quarterback, has delivered catchable throws to Mingo at a 45 percent rate, the second lowest in the NFL. Only Panthers teammate Terrace Marshall has seen a lower rate of catchable balls.
Mingo has given you almost nothing through Week 2 unless you play in point per route formats (highly recommended). Don’t give up on the rookie quite yet.
Darnell Mooney (CHI)
The knee injury Mooney picked up Sunday against the Bucs is reportedly “not serious” and probably shouldn’t keep him sidelined this week against the Chiefs. My Week 2 DFS lineups are not soothed.
Mooney’s air yards share (53 percent) through Week 2 is the third highest among all wideouts. Forget for a moment that he’s outside the top-50 in total air yards and instead focus on his top-20 rate of first-read targets. Mooney has a strong route rate in the miserable Chicago offense and should be a boom-bust flex option in deeper formats if the knee issue doesn’t linger. Plus, the Bears are destined for an entire season of garbage time. We like that.
Rashod Bateman (BAL)
I am compelled by an obscure Maryland state law to mention Bateman in this space after he caught all three of his targets for a humble 18 yards against the Bengals on Sunday. Odell Beckham went down with an ankle injury — apparently the non-serious variety — and forced the Ravens to deploy Bateman and Nelson Agholor, who caught a touchdown and might appear to be the natural OBJ replacement for Week 3 (if Beckham sits).
Not so fast, my internet content consuming friend. It was Bateman who had a 94 percent route participation rate against the Bengals after Beckham left the game. Agholor, meanwhile, ran a route on 43 percent of the team’s drop backs following the OBJ early exit. Bateman may have finally found a way to get onto the field. I’d prefer him over Agholor — who had five catches against the Bengals — if Beckham can’t go against the Colts in Week 3.
Tight End
Evan Engram (JAC)
Engram hasn’t done much through two weeks in the struggling Jacksonville offense. His 11 catches on 13 targets for 106 yards has been fine, if totally forgettable.
What if I told you Engram is third in tight end receiving yardage and third in tight end targets? What if I followed up these shocking statistical revelations by adding Engram has more first-read targets than any tight end not named T.J. Hockenson? You would be bowled over, shellshocked. You would need to sit down.
Engram’s route participation (77 percent) remains strong. Against a Texans defense that allowed six receptions for 79 yards and a touchdown to Colts tight ends in Week 2, Engram could finally post a stat line that might not be forgettable in Week 3.
Durham Smythe (MIA)
Smythe, whether we like it or not (we don’t), is part of the Miami offense because unlike Mike Gesicki, he’s a willing blocker. Through two games, Smythe has a route participation rate of 86 percent, the highest among tight ends. A mere four tight ends have more total pass routes through Week 2. In an aggressive, pass-first Miami offense, Smythe’s profile is exceptional.
Smythe’s production is bound to tick up if he maintains this role in Mike McDaniel’s system.
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Regression Candidates (The Bad Kind)
Quarterback
Deshaun Watson (CLE)
The face mask-yanking, ref-pushing Watson — whose Monday night histrionics will reportedly be reviewed by the NFL — has been miserable as a passer through two games in a Kevin Stefanski system that clearly doesn’t fit with Watson’s play style.
Watson through Week 2 has the league’s fourth lowest completion rate over expected and the seventh lowest drop back success rate. He’s 27th out of 35 qualifying quarterbacks in adjusted net yards per attempt. His off-target throw rate is the fifth worst in the league. Suffice it to say Watson has been a bottom-barrel passer in the season’s early going.
Watson, of course, has salvaged his fantasy days with a rushing touchdown in Week 1 and some decent rushing production (including a two point conversion rush) in Week 2. It all feels flukey and ready to collapse at any moment. I don’t think Watson drafters should feel compelled to start him if they have a viable alternative on their bench. Of course, he plays the pass-funnel Titans in Week 3.
Jordan Love (GB)
Did Love make me look like a damn fool in Week 2 after I highlighted him as a surefire victim of the Regression Reaper? Yes, he did. Will that stop me from trying it again? No, it will not.
Love is Getting Away With It more than anyone has ever Gotten Away With It, thanks in large part to a well-designed Matt LaFleur offense that’s clicking on all 16 cylinders through two games. Love’s six touchdown passes through two games — at a remarkable 11.5 percent touchdown rate — serve as potent deodorant on an otherwise-poor start to his time as Green Bay’s starter.
No quarterback has a worse completion rate over expected than Love through Week 2. Four of his five red zone completions have gone for touchdowns. This is the stuff of which regression is made. LaFleur can certainly coach solid performances out of Love this season. I’m highly skeptical Love can keep Getting Away With It, especially when game script turns sour and enemy defenses can sit back and play the pass.
Daniel Jones (NYG)
The Giants made the bold decision to try to score points in the second half of Sunday’s miracle win against the actively-tanking Cardinals. For that, the G-people deserve our respect.
Daniel D. Dimes threw for 321 yards and two scores while adding 59 rushing yards and another touchdown in furious comeback mode against Arizona. That works! It’s also deserving of your most cynical sort of skepticism. Through two weeks, Jones is 23rd in completion rate over expected and 21st in drop back success rate. Only Josh Dobbs has a higher rate of turnover worthy plays than Jones. New York’s offensive line is an abject disaster: Jones has faced pressure on 71.2 percent of his drop backs through two weeks, by far the highest rate in the league.
Unless the Giants start deploying Mr. Dimes on designed rushing attempts the way they did last December and January, he (likely) won’t deliver for fantasy managers the way he did in Week 2.
Running Back
Ken Walker (SEA)
I’m not telling you to reconsider starting Walker. Keep him rolling. But I’ve determined you must know that Walker is running pure through two games. He has the tenth most rushing attempts and the 20th most rushing yards, and his peripherals are down across the board compared to his outstanding rookie campaign. Walker’s stat line was helped by two short scores against Detroit in Week 2.
Walker’s route participation rate (37 percent) is less than desirable, and lower than we expected headed into the season. He has five targets in two games. He has a death grip on the Seahawks’ rushing opportunities and has five of Seattle’s six carries inside the ten yard line. That, clearly, will go a long way in fantasy.
Probably things will pick up for the boom-capable Walker, who has yet to rip off a long run on his 29 carries. The first two games have been a tad bit concerning for him though, and he could be more sensitive to game script than fantasy managers would like to admit.
Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook (NYJ)
The nightmare for Hall drafters is unfolding in real time. Zach Wilson, who is by no means a pro-caliber quarterback, is well on his way to destroying any fantasy value Hall and Cook may have had with Aaron Rodgers listening to dolphins mating in his Achilles recovery. Hall had four carries for nine yards in Week 2 against the Cowboys; Cook had 12 yards on five touches.
Michael Carter mixed in once again in Week 2. He saw all ten snaps in the Jets’ two-minute drill and saw four of six third down snaps. That’s quite bad for both Hall and Cook. Hall, for one, is going to have to rip off a long run or three every week if he’s going to be a usable RB2 this season. I regret to inform you that for as long as Wilson is under center for the Jets, it is Joever for Hall and Cook.
Wide Receiver
Marvin Mims (DEN)
Your best ball teams don’t care that Mims — a blazing fast deep ball threat — only ran 16 percent of the Broncos’ pass routes in Week 2 against Washington. Mims secured both of his targets for 113 yards and a touchdown against the Commanders. It’s exactly the role head coach Sean Payton said the rookie would have in 2023: That of a downfield specialist.
Probably Mims shouldn’t be on 12-team waiver wires, but you can’t possibly start him until he does the unthinkable and leapfrogs Lil’Jordan Humphrey and Brandon Johnson on the Broncos’ depth chart.
Josh Reynolds (DET)
Only five wideouts have a higher fantasy points over expected than Reynolds this season. He has two touchdowns on his nine early-season receptions while running a route on 70 percent of Detroit’s drop backs. It’s not a sparkling profile by any means. There's also the pesky issue of the Lions having the NFL's second lowest pass rate over expected.
Reynolds, however, leads the Lions in air yards and should function as the team’s lone downfield threat until Jameson Williams returns from his suspension. Fantasy players should know the touchdowns have kept him afloat.
Rashid Shaheed (NO)
Maybe Shaheed is just spectacular and will continue making me look like a complete tool for mentioning him in this space. But there’s no denying the second-year wideout is running hotter than anyone in fantasy right now.
Shaheed has caught nine of his 10 targets for 152 yards and a touchdown through Week 2, converting an unholy 90 percent of his air yards into actual, real life yards. Shahid’s 65 percent route share leaves a lot to be desired too. Eventually, unless his route involvement increases, that eye-popping air yards conversion rate is going to drop and Shaheed is going to deliver a total dud.
Jordan Addison (MIN)
Addison’s Week 2 stat line, much like his Week 1 stat line, is perfectly cromulent for fantasy managers who started the rookie. Dig a little deeper and we have all the classic signs that Addison is running hotter than the coolant-starved engine of the Mercury Sable I drove in college.
Addison in many respects is the Vikings’ No. 3 receiver. His route participation rate (71.3 percent) is well below that of KJ Osborn (87 percent). Addison’s 11 percent target share is a tick below Osborn’s 13 percent share; both wideouts have been targeted on a not-stellar 15 percent of their routes. It’s just that Addison is seeing more high value downfield looks and cashing them in. Maybe that will force Minnesota coaches to get Addison — eighth in receiver fantasy points over expected — on the field more going forward, or maybe he’ll continue being big-play reliant.
Even if Addison’s role doesn’t change, the extremely pass-heavy nature of the Vikings offense should keep the rookie viable in 12-team formats. Addison drafters should mentally, emotionally, and physically prepare for some volatility though.
Tight End
Jake Ferguson (DAL)
I had Jake “Don’t Call me Turd” Ferguson in the “good” regression section last week and his route rate promptly dipped to a dismal 49 percent in Week 2 against the Jets. That he caught a short touchdown on one of his four targets might fool one into believing Ferguson remains a viable fantasy option in 12-team formats.
He’s probably not. As long as he’s splitting pass routes and tight end targets with Luke Schoonmaker and Peyton Hendershot, Ferguson, who is blocking way too much for my liking, is nothing beyond a desperation streaming play in deep leagues. I suppose there is a glimmer of hope for those banking on Ferguson continuing to get away with it: No one has more inside-the-ten targets (5) through two weeks.
Will Dissly (SEA)
Dissly’s three-catch, 35 yard Week 2 outing came with a 42 percent route rate. Noah Fant, meanwhile, ran a route on 40 percent of the Seahawks’ drop backs. Neither guy should be rostered outside of 32-team leagues.
