The Regression Files: Week 11
Spotting guys who have overperformed their opportunity and those who have been on the wrong side of what we’ll call variance — because “luck” is so crass — can help us with waiver wire additions, start-sits, and sneaky DFS plays, if you’re into that sort of thing.
That’s my goal with the Regression Files: Pinpointing players seemingly due for regression to the mean, for better or worse.
We’ll start with players who have run cold of late, and who might be due for something of a bounce back in Week 11 and beyond.
Regression Candidates (The Good Kind)
Running Back
Tony Pollard (DAL)
It feels cruel to put Pollard in this space nearly three months into the season. He’s been a regression candidate for the entire season, and no matter the game script — good, bad, ugly, sideways — Pollard can’t get there for one reason or another. You know this if you drafted him. It’s all you think about, in fact.
I would only like to reiterate how frigid Pollard is running in 2023: He’s managed a single touchdown on nine inside-the-five rushes; he has two scores on 21 inside-the-ten carries; and only Christian McCaffrey has more inside-the-20 rushing attempts than Pollard. Eventually, if Pollard keeps seeing these high-value touches, he’s going to accidentally fall over the goal line and get six points for your fantasy squad. In Week 11, Pollard faces a Carolina defense allowing the NFL’s highest rush EPA, the seventh lowest stuff rate, and the third highest rush yards after contact per attempt. Trust the process.
One last thing on Pollard: His target commanding ways have dwindled this season. He’s seeing a target on a humble 16.5 percent of his pass routes through Week 10. Last year, that number was 20.8 percent. In 2021, it was 25.2 percent. Maybe it’s offensive play design or maybe it’s Pollard’s mysterious lack of burst — Ezekiel Elliott is probably better than Pollard right now — but Pollard is not the pass-catching factor he has been over the past two years.
Wide Receiver
Chris Godwin (TB)
In some ways, Mike Evans is Tampa’s runaway WR1. He leads Chris Godwin by 215 receiving yards and has six touchdowns to Godwin’s one. Evans’ 2.81 yards per route run makes him worlds more efficient than Godwin, who has a pedestrian 1.87 yards per route run. Most importantly for our purposes, Evans is a top-12 fantasy wideout while Godwin has been outscored by 35 receivers.
In other ways, the split between Godwin and Evans isn’t all that massive. Godwin enjoys a 21.9 percent target share to Evans’ 22 percent and Godwin has been targeted on 24 percent of his pass routes, a tick lower than Evans at 26 percent.
It’s Godwin who has a massive edge in the scoring area. He’s seen 12 red zone targets and seven green zone (inside-the-ten) targets through Week 10. Evans has seven and four looks, respectively. The problem, as Godwin drafters know, is that he’s managed just one touchdown on all those scoring area opportunities. He's been tackled inside the five yard line three times in nine games. No receiver has run worse in the red zone this season.
Godwin has quietly — almost too quietly — been good in 2023, as Bandit Football’s Brad Beatson recently pointed out. He’s 18th in ESPN’s open score, tied with Davante Adams and DK Metcalf. Some halfway decent luck (variance) inside the 20 and he could be a key to making fantasy title runs. Tampa, by the bye, has the NFL’s fourth highest pass rate over expected in the red zone, largely because Rachaad White is the league's least efficient runner. Stay the course on Godwin in Week 11. The Bucs are certain to establish the pass against the Niners.
Zay Flowers (BAL)
The questions during my Friday start-sit live stream on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel are becoming increasingly hostile toward plugging and playing Zay Flowers. And I get it. I do. He’s the 32nd highest scoring wideout in fantasy since Week 5 and had 30 total receiving yards in Week 8 and 9 before a halfway decent outing against Cleveland (five grabs, 73 yards).
And yes, Flowers has scored precisely one touchdown on the season. That’s one score on 68 targets and 50 catches. To say the rookie has run cold would be an understatement and an insult to the rage-filled tears you’ve shed over Flowers this fall. Again, I get it. You’re upset.
It’s not that Flowers isn’t being used where it counts the most: He has ten red zone targets through Week 10, second on the Ravens behind Mark Andrews (13). Flowers has caught eight of those looks for his lone 2023 touchdown. Baltimore, to my great surprise, has not been all that run heavy in the red zone. They’re middle of the pack in pass rate over expected inside the 20. Despite all the Gus Bus touchdowns, the Ravens have been at or above their expected drop back rate in four of their past five outings. That should work out in Flowers’ favor.
Flowers’ 80 percent route rate over the past three weeks is far higher than touchdown-scoring teammate Odell Beckham’s 60 percent. Against an extreme pass funnel Bengals defense in Week 11, I like Flowers’ chance of getting off the touchdown schneid. He’s coming off a decidedly unlucky game against the Browns. Flowers dominated with a 40 percent air yards share and led Baltimore in first read target rate against Cleveland. He was one Lamar Jackson overthrow away from a fun little fantasy day.
A note on the Ravens-Bengals Thursday night matchup: Cincy, as we saw in Week 10 against Noah Brown — and to a lesser extent, Dalton Schultz — has been eaten up by slot pass catchers. Mark Andrews happens to be leading the Ravens in slot routes (Flowers operates from the slot on 30 percent of his routes). Andrews should eat, as the zoomers say, against the Bengals.
DJ Moore (CHI)
Things are bleak for Moore. We’re looking strongly into whether DJ has made any deals with malignant spirits -- something to explain why he can never, ever play with a good quarterback.
I’m contractually and legally obligated to tell you Moore last week against the Panthers saw a stunning 51 percent air yards share and the seventh most air yards of any pass catcher in the league. That it resulted in five catches for 58 yards is another matter entirely. I don’t want to talk about that.
Moore’s 44 percent air yards share is the fourth highest mark in the NFL through Week 10. He has the 11th highest rate of first-read targets in a Chicago offense 3 percent under its expected drop back rate. I’m not sure Justin Fields’ eventual return makes things better or worse for Moore, but he remains one of football’s most obvious (good) regression candidates in the coming weeks. Keep banging your head against that wall and don’t bench Moore in Week 11 against a pass-funnel Detroit defense. We would like to see more easy targets for Moore, whose average depth of target hints at a player with a wide range of weekly outcomes.
Michael Pittman (IND)
This one will be brief because you’re starting the target-hogging Pittman no matter what.
Pittman has been on the wrong side of variance in the red zone through Week 10, catching one touchdown on a league-leading 16 inside-the-20 targets. Though he’s not seeing much action inside the ten yard line for reasons I can’t explain, Pittman should eventually cash in on that sweet, sweet red zone action. His 45.5 percent red zone target rate is second in the NFL, behind only Garrett Wilson, who has a 110 percent target share on the season.
Pittman has been Gardner Minshew’s first read target on 36.5 percent of his throws since Week 6. Josh Downs is second on the team with a 17 percent first read target rate. Against the Patriots in Week 10, Pittman enjoyed a 54 percent first-read target rate, the highest in the NFL. His receiving profile is ludicrous.
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Regression Candidates (The Bad Kind)
Quarterback
Sam Howell (WAS)
Washington’s massive pass volume should keep Howell afloat as a top-12(ish) fantasy option for the rest of the season. The team’s Swiss cheese defense and their offensive coordinator’s determination to establish the pass means Howell is all but guaranteed 40 drop backs every week. It’s a rare thing. Enjoy it.
Howell has been crazily efficient in the green zone though, with eight touchdowns on nine pass attempts inside the ten yard line. That’s right: Eight of nine. If that wild touchdown production near the end zone regresses in the coming weeks — or if a Washington running back stumbles into the end zone once or twice — Howell’s fantasy production will take a hit. The baked-in passing volume should provide him with a good-enough floor to keep starting in all formats.
Running Back
Brian Robinson (WAS)
Robinson drafters need a heat check after their guy went ballistic in Week 10 against the Seahawks — doing it in the least sustainable way possible.
Robinson had 38 scoreless yards on eight rushes and scored 28 PPR points. That’s because he caught all six of his targets for 119 yards and a touchdown, including a 51-yard catch and run. Robinson had seen five targets total in Washington’s past four games. He had a whopping 136 receiving yards on the season before transforming into CMC against Seattle. Only three backs — McCaffrey, Mostert, and Achane — are further above their expected fantasy points than Robinson.
Robinson has run a route on just 31 percent of the Commanders’ drop backs this season. That’s well short of Antonio Gibson’s mark of 46 percent. He is by no means a regular part of the team’s passing attack. That’s a big problem seeing that Washington is third in pass rate over expected; the Commander have been over their expected drop back rate in nine of their ten 2023 games. That the Commanders have targeted the running back position at the league’s 11th lowest rate (16 percent) can’t be good for Robinson or Gibson.
Fantasy managers should continue treating Robinson as a game-script dependent, somewhat touchdown-dependent fantasy option going forward. I realize now that I’ve put Robinson in the bad regression space right before he takes on the shell of the Giants and puts up 150 total yards and multiple scores. Nevertheless, the point stands.
Wide Receiver
Courtland Sutton (DEN)
Sutton has been good in the green zone. Almost — as you can tell by his place in this column — too good.
Sutton has three touchdowns on four inside-the-ten targets this season. All seven of his touchdowns have come on a mere nine red zone looks from Russell Wilson. The increasingly run heavy Broncos, who now rank 26th in pass rate over expected and are 3 percent under their expected red zone pass rate, likely won’t generate the needed pass volume necessary for Sutton to keep fending off the Regression Reaper. That lack of volume and Sutton’s usage as a short-area target are reflected in his recent air yards numbers. He’s 86th in wideout air yards over the past month, tied with Darius Slayton and Byron Pringle, who is apparently still in the NFL.
Sutton remains a fine WR3 play. Just don’t get too excited about his 11-target outing against the Bills on Monday night — a glut of opportunity that produced exactly 53 receiving yards.
Odell Beckham (BAL)
There is a somewhat palatable explanation for why OBJ has gotten away with it over the past two games. He has two touchdowns on a mere eight targets ove those two contests while running about half the routes in the Baltimore offense.
Beckham is fourth on the Ravens in air yards share (15 percent) over that two-game stretch and a distant second to Mark Andrews with a 16 percent target share. The Ravens, however, are being intentional in force feeding the ball to the wily veteran. OBJ’s first-read target rate has increased over the past couple games. When he’s out there running a route, the plan is usually to get him the rock, possibly to prevent another in-game meltdown like the one we saw against the Cardinals a few weeks ago.
Beckham in Week 11 against the Bengals has a nasty little matchup. Cincinnati’s defense has been nails against perimeter receivers and OBJ runs more than 80 percent of his routes from the outside. I don’t love his chances of continuing to Get Away With It on Thursday night.
Tight End
George Kittle (SF)
Kittle gets away with it because he happens to be a supremely good pass catcher and one of the best run-after-catch guys in modern NFL history. So there’s that.
There’s also this: No tight end is further over their expected fantasy production than Kittle this season and it’s not even close. Against the Jaguars in Week 10, he turned four targets into 116 yards and a touchdown thanks to a Brock Purdy Hail Mary gone right. Kittle now has five games in 2023 with four or fewer targets. Even the great Kittle can’t get away with it on such sporadic volume.
His target commanding has taken a hit this season. Kittle has seen a target on 18.5 percent of his pass routes, well short of his career rate of 22.7 percent. Probably that has something to do with the target-hogging CMC coming out of the San Francisco backfield.
Kittle isn’t getting anything easy where it counts the most. He’s seen just one green zone target this season, which, naturally, he converted into a touchdown. Only six teams are more run heavy in the red zone than the Niners, whose inside-the-20 plans begin and end with Christian McCaffrey. I think Kittle drafters should consider starting tight ends with more reliable floors (unless Deebo Samuel misses more time). Guys like Dalton Schultz and Taysom Hill come to mind.
