The rebuild begins: Here's what the Red Sox need to do for 2024
Sunday brought a merciful end to the Red Sox season. Now the serious business begins in Boston.
This 2023 campaign was effectively over since Chaim Bloom declined to strengthen his roster at the August trade deadline. A second straight 78-84 record and another last-place finish in the American League East — a third in four years — spelled an early firing for the club’s former Chief Baseball Officer.
The next top executive at Fenway Park has a host of important decisions to make. There are veterans set to depart, a farm system that could be evaluated with a fresh set of eyes and a fan base that is somewhere between frustration and apathy. Attendance at Fenway Park and NESN ratings still haven’t rebounded to their 2019 level, suggesting some discontent with the current state of the major league product.
Where to start? Good question. Here are a few areas of focus the Red Sox front office simply must address prior to spring training in February:
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Red Sox must hire a bold top executive
Boston finished with a 272-274 record during Bloom’s tenure, and a lone appearance in the 2021 A.L. Championship Series isn’t good enough while failing to contend otherwise.
The next top executive with the Red Sox simply must be bolder. Make decisions with conviction, set a clear course for the franchise and don’t look back. Bloom’s willingness to retreat in the name of building prospect capital and tendency to dither at the roster’s edges were maddening at times.
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Identify someone who’s been tasked with making major decisions or previously worked in a big market. Take a couple of swings behind the scenes at the likes of Chris Antonetti (Guardians), Ross Atkins (Blue Jays), Derek Falvey (Twins), Mike Hazen (Diamondbacks) and Kim Ng (Marlins) before pivoting to deeper organizational figures like Sam Fuld (Phillies) and Brandon Gomes (Dodgers).
And if the Red Sox decide on that second route ...
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Hire in-house candidate Eddie Romero
... Go ahead and promote Eddie Romero.
The executive vice president and assistant general manager has been with the organization since 2006. Romero’s time overseeing international scouting has included the signings of Rafael Devers, Brayan Bello, Ceddanne Rafaela and six more of the club’s top 14 minor-league talents per SoxProspects.com.
Romero’s father, Ed, played with Boston from 1986-89. He’s a lifer here and a sharp mind who understands the culture of both the club and the city. You’d have a hard time imagining Romero demeaning the Red Sox by implying they’re underdogs or disadvantaged in any way against their A.L. East rivals.
The other obvious strength here — Romero already has an established relationship with manager Alex Cora, who has one year remaining on his current contract. Their ability to work together could make for a smoother road than the one traveled by Bloom and Cora. The result could be better, more effective decisions about which prospects to retain or trade, the 26-man roster and the future.
Tie up an Brayan Bello now
Speaking of Bello, it might be time to start talking with him about a long-term extension.
If Boston really believes he can play a key role until 2030 or so, buy out his arbitration years and benefit by making a couple of his expected free-agent years considerably cheaper. Bello’s changeup is already a clear weapon, and the rest of his mix features the raw elements any pitching development staff would love to shape.
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Ideally, if the Red Sox can improve their infield defense, the weak contact and ground balls forced by Bello will turn into outs more frequently. He worked to a 3.04 earned-run average, limited opponents to a .668 OPS and struck out 70 through his first 14 starts and 80 innings this season. Another year of strength and conditioning should allow him to carry that sort of effective stuff deeper into the summer.
Upgrade the pitching rotation
But, even if Boston does indeed think Bello is part of the solution, the goal should be to make him a No. 3 starter at best by Opening Day in 2024.
The Red Sox should add one superior starting pitcher through two different avenues — a free-agent signing and a trade. They’re comfortably under the Competitive Balance Tax and overdue to juice a payroll that has sunk into the middle third of the league. They’ve also allegedly accumulated enough depth in their system under Bloom to turn some heads.
The top target on the market will be a Japanese right-hander — and no, it’s not Shohei Ohtani. The two-way phenom won’t pitch in 2024 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Yoshinobu Yamamoto will take his place, a 25-year-old who’s likely to command more than $200 million.
Lucas Giolito, Sonny Gray, Aaron Nola, old friend Eduardo Rodriguez and Blake Snell are among the veterans who should be available. Boston simply can’t go through another year attempting to mix and match and middle its way through constructing a rotation. No more signing Corey Kluber, paying James Paxton for an extended rehabilitation period and getting outbid for Zach Eflin.
Starters who fit the above criteria and remain under team control include Brandon Woodruff (Brewers, 2025), Corbin Burnes (Brewers, 2025), Dylan Cease (White Sox, 2026), Zac Gallen (Diamondbacks, 2026), Mitch Keller (Pirates, 2026), Jesus Luzardo (Marlins, 2027) and Tarik Skubal (Tigers, 2027). The price for each of them would be steep — even more so if the Red Sox ultimately reached an agreement to sign an extension that would keep them from free agency.
A couple of notes of caution among that group — Cease saw a few troubling trends from 2022 to 2023. His hard-hit rate jumped (31.2% to 41.6%), his ERA more than doubled (2.20 to 4.58) and his strikeout rate dropped for the second straight year. Luzardo earned $2.45 million in his first year of arbitration with three still to come — he could wind up more expensive over time than other pitchers on this list.
Trevor Story needs to improve offensively
Boston needs to get Trevor Story on track.
He has four years and $93.3 million left on the contract he signed prior to 2022, and to blame his struggles thus far on a late report date two years ago and an elbow injury last year is to miss something that could be deeper.
Story has been a declining offensive player going back to 2019. His OPS has gone down with each following season, and opposing pitchers torment him regularly with breaking balls. Story’s batting average and slugging percentage against spin has cratered from .271/.536 four years ago to .070/.088 in this limited 2023 sample.
The Red Sox can afford to carry a utility player with a golden glove and no bat. They won’t make much progress if Story matches that description.
Fill the hole at second base
Story needs a reliable double-play partner, and it shouldn’t be Rafaela.
Evaluators peg him as a potentially elite shortstop or center fielder — two positions that carry greater value and are more difficult to fill. Boston needs to address a clear hole at second base, and it should be with someone who can reliably field the position. Story and that player to be named are likely to defend sides of an infield that also includes Devers and Triston Casas — neither is expected to develop into a plus glove.
Enmanuel Valdez isn’t a capable defensive alternative in that spot. The other Red Sox options from the minors have yet to reach Triple-A Worcester. Nick Yorke, Chase Meidroth, Mikey Romero and Brainer Bonaci all could remain multiple years away.
Boston could make a play for Ha-Seong Kim if the Padres are looking to shed some salary. He’s signed for $8 million in 2024 and holds an undisclosed mutual option for 2025. Kim was 10th in fielding run value at the position according to Baseball Savant, stole 38 bases and walked at a 12.1% rate in 2023 — not a powerful one, but an athletic, varied skillset.
The Red Sox could also approach the Giants about Thairo Estrada, who tied for first in fielding run value and doesn’t reach free agency until 2027. Estrada is a bit light at the plate — he holds a career .725 OPS — but has 44 stolen bases and 28 homers over the last two seasons. That extra team control would almost certainly carry a steeper cost for Boston in prospect capital.
Sort out the outfield
The Red Sox shouldn’t continue with Masataka Yoshida as an everyday left fielder.
He ranked last among their position players in outs above average, and the rigors of a big-league schedule took a toll on his legs — and, by extension, his bat — over the second half. It was the known major flaw in Yoshida’s game when he was signed away from Japan, but Bloom charged forward with a $105-million bid — $90 million on a five-year deal, $15 million in posting fee — regardless.
Justin Turner is likely to opt out of the remaining year on his contract, and Boston might need to let him walk in order to clear designated hitter at-bats for Yoshida and others. That would hurt the Red Sox in terms of clubhouse leadership and clutch hitting, but it could be a required sacrifice. The rest of the outfield mix needs sorting, and they might consider an outside addition at the position.
Will Alex Verdugo be traded with one year of arbitration remaining? Could Boston coax Adam Duvall back in a matchup or hybrid role in left field? Was this a flash from Jarren Duran, or something more lasting? Did the Red Sox see enough from Rafaela or Wilyer Abreu to offer a full-time role in center or right field entering next spring?
Boston could use an established bat that inspires a little fear if it opts for some combination of Verdugo, Duran, Abreu and Rafaela. The Red Sox could make the dream trade with the Padres for Juan Soto, try to determine which is the real Cody Bellinger (.881 OPS in 2023, .648 OPS the previous three seasons) or approach the Orioles about clearing the way for prospects like Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad by trading an arbitration veteran like Anthony Santander (61 home runs, 65 doubles in 2022-23).
Boston could also look at someone who, according to The Athletic, has been out of favor at times with his manager. Chas McCormick, an Astros outfielder about to enter his first arbitration year, finished with an .842 OPS, 22 home runs and 19 stolen bases in 2023. He's a right-handed bat to balance Devers and Casas and doesn't reach free agency until 2027.
On X: @BillKoch25
This article originally appeared on The Providence Journal: Here's what Boston Red Sox need to do to contend in MLB AL East in 2024
