Mid-season stock report: Which fantasy rusher has best chance for success in second half?
By John Evans
Special to Yahoo Sports
Time flies when you’re having fun, but it’s hard to believe that we’re halfway through the regular season in most fantasy leagues. A lot has changed since my initial offensive line ranks back in July, so I thought I would revisit the top and bottom units to update the outlook for the running backs they block for.
Dallas Cowboys
Ezekiel Elliott Rest-of-Season Stock: Same
Like most people, I ranked Dallas No. 1 entering the year. Losing all-world center Travis Frederick was a devastating blow to this unit, knocking them off their pedestal before Week 1. Since then, the injury seas have been relatively calm, and yet the Cowboys’ previously dominant run-blocking has been more middle-of-the-pack. While Frederick’s fill-in, Joe Looney, has been an obvious downgrade, their success rate on right-end runs is their glaring weakness. Only the Dolphins have experienced greater futility on such plays, according to Football Outsiders. Right tackle La’el Collins hasn’t developed as hoped, either.
Ezekiel Elliott has been held to an average of 64 rushing yards and 3.1 yards per carry over the last three games. Zeke has only two obviously favorable matchups before Week 17, facing an array of respectable run defenses instead. That said, it’s not time to push the panic button, especially with new addition Amari Cooper giving defenses more to think about. A lot of running backs would love to have this line blocking for them, and Elliott doesn’t need cupcake matchups to produce. He remains a no-brainer RB1.
Pittsburgh Steelers
James Conner / Le’Veon Bell Rest-of-Season Stock: Down
The Steelers were second in my initial ranks and it’s fair to say they’ve underperformed, too. According to Football Outsiders, Pittsburgh is last in the league on left-end runs and even stud right guard David DeCastro hasn’t been himself. A lot of James Conner’s fantasy production stems from his seven touchdowns and reliable involvement in the passing game. He does have three 100-yard rushing games, though.
After a mouth-watering matchup with Cleveland this week, Conner has a tough stretch ahead. That said, the greater concern would be Le’Veon Bell returning to a significant workload. It’s possible that Bell plays a lot in the team’s final six games, but I suspect the Steelers will keep Conner heavily involved as long as he is healthy and productive.
Los Angeles Rams
Todd Gurley Rest-of-Season Stock: Up
This offensive line not only lived up to its lofty ranking; it’s now the top dog. New Orleans can also make a claim to No. 1, but the Rams’ adjusted line yards (Football Outsiders’ run-blocking metric) is a stunning 5.74 compared to the Saints’ 4.89 (a distant third). Rodger Saffold might be the best run-blocking guard in the league right now, and his unheralded teammate Austin Blythe isn’t that far behind. When you consider that the tackles are elite too, it’s obvious why this unit is dominating. Having a special running back like Todd Gurley doesn’t hurt, either. Gurley has more than delivered on his ADP and could break records this year.
New England Patriots
James White / Sony Michel / Kenjon Barner Rest-of-Season Stock: Up
Guess who’s in between L.A. and New Orleans in that run-blocking metric? The Patriots. Ranked fourth in the preseason, New England’s unit is every bit as good as they were last year despite losing their left tackle to free agency (Nate Solder) and a promising rookie before Week 1 (Isaiah Wynn). Legendary OL coach Dante Scarnecchia gets a lot of credit for that, but his boys have been ballin.’ Sony Michel is nursing another knee injury, but with a Week 11 bye we can be hopeful he’ll miss just two games. Upcoming opponents Minnesota and Pittsburgh (Weeks 13 and 15) don’t dole out a lot of rushing yards, but this offense has proven its ability to produce scoring opportunities for traditional ball-carriers as well as someone like James White. Get on board.
Atlanta Falcons
Tevin Coleman / Ito Smith Rest-of-Season Stock: Down
The Falcons’ line has been beset with injuries this year, so it’s no surprise they’re nowhere near a top-five ranking now. What is particularly disappointing, though, is that they’re near the bottom of the league in run-blocking despite center Alex Mack maintaining his lofty standards and tackle Ryan Schraeder being shockingly effective. The whole is less than the sum of its parts in Atlanta. This has contributed to Tevin Coleman lagging well behind such names as T.J. Yeldon and Austin Ekeler in fantasy scoring. Whether you’re tied to Coleman or an Ito Smith-truther, the fact remains that Atlanta has four bad matchups and four good ones the rest of the way. This running game is an iffy bet to capitalize on its opportunities right now.
Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Mixon Rest-of-Season Stock: Up
Turning our attention to the bottom of my preseason rankings, the Bengals checked in at 28th and are now clearly better than that, if not world-beaters by any stretch of the imagination. Cincinnati’s blockers are flirting with average in adjusted line yards even as their mainstay, Clint Boling, grades as subpar. Basically, this is the opposite scenario as Atlanta’s.
The Bengals are piecing together decent blocking for Joe Mixon, especially on left-end and right-tackle runs. After Week 8’s dream date with Tampa Bay, Mixon may test fantasy gamers’ patience as he goes on bye before facing the two best run defenses in the league (New Orleans and Baltimore). After that, it’s clear sailing all the way to Week 17, so I’m generally bullish on the second-year star.
Seattle Seahawks
Chris Carson / Mike Davis / Rashaad Penny Rest-of-Season Stock: Same
Another overachiever, Seattle has vaulted from 29th in my preseason ranks to a gentleman’s “C,” being squarely 16th of 32 in adjusted line yards. Standout Duane Brown is anchoring an otherwise undistinguished run-blocking unit that has paved the way for surprising performances by Chris Carson and even Mike Davis. Coming off a bye, Carson should command the most carries, but Pete Carroll is infamously capricious with his running back usage. If a lead dog emerges, he’ll have six appetizing matchups down the stretch compared to three tough draws. The trouble is that since Marshawn Lynch left, no Seahawk back has held a plum position for long, whether due to coaching, injury, or both.
Buffalo Bills
LeSean McCoy / Chris Ivory Rest-of-Season Stock: Down
To the surprise of no one, the beleaguered Bills have not overcome the loss of three-fifths of their starters in the offseason. The surprise is that Buffalo is merely bottom-10 in run-blocking, rather than contending for worst in the league. While no member of this group has distinguished himself, they’ve held together well enough to produce the 19th most rushing yards per game despite being the NFL’s worst offense by a country mile. The Bills have a soft schedule ahead but it’s impossible to endorse LeSean McCoy even when he’s back to full health. His numbers have been worse than even pessimistic fantasy gamers feared.
Houston Texans
Lamar Miller / Alfred Blue / D’Onta Foreman Rest-of-Season Stock: Up
On balance, Houston’s run-blocking is slightly worse than Buffalo’s, even if left tackle Julién Davenport is currently much better in that area than in pass protection (not a bold statement). Lamar Miller has now reeled off back-to-back 100-yard games, quieting talk of D’Onta Foreman’s return. While Miami was a pillow-soft matchup, the Texans have only Washington and Tennessee to fear the rest of the way. The line is improving despite injuries, with guard Greg Mancz emerging as a super-sub in recent weeks. I’m guardedly optimistic about the Texans’ ground game.
New York Jets
Isaiah Crowell / Elijah McGuire / Trenton Cannon Rest-of-Season Stock: Same
I gave Gang Green the dubious distinction of finishing last in my run-blocking rankings, and they’ve only ascended to 27 in Football Outsiders’ metric. The weak link in the chain is center Spencer Long — part of why only three teams struggle more on inside runs. The Jets yards-per-carry average has been bolstered by Isaiah Crowell’s occasional long runs, but they have a lot of runs stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage.
With Bilal Powell on IR, Crowell will see more opportunity and only the Titans present a tough matchup down the stretch. Still, he’s battling lingering injuries and some combination of Trenton Cannon and Elijah McGuire are likely to fill the Powell role. I’m skeptical that Crowell can achieve cruising altitude with the Jets.
