Raptors offseason primer: Fred VanVleet’s free agency, Pascal Siakam extension potential, more
Toronto zagged pretty hard at the trade deadline when everyone else thought they would zig. Instead of moving some of their best players for future assets, they traded future assets for another good player. This suggests that the Raptors’ front office believes they are close to contending with this group and any sort of rebuild is not on the table. But after missing the playoffs for the second time in four seasons, time on this core could be running out.
This Raptors team is arguably better than the results it put out this season when considering it contains mostly the same group that won seven more games last year. And more continuity with Jakob Poeltl heading into 2023-24 and perhaps a new head coach, if all the smoke surrounding Nick Nurse is real, should help. But with the East getting stronger at the top, they may be closer to being a No. 5 seed again than they are contending for titles.
Here is a preview of the 2023 offseason for the Raptors.
State of the roster and how the new CBA affects them
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Since winning the 2019 championship, the Raptors have tried to retain as much strength as possible to remain in the playoff mix. Talent slowly chipped away over time but they kept several of their young players in hopes of making another run again. Their results have been mixed ever since with two seasons in the playoffs and two missing out on them. Each season they’ve tried to put together the best roster possible against all odds and despite any lack of flexibility they had to improve the roster.
The team’s roster strategy was unsuccessful this season. The approach involved scrounging up as many versatile 6-foot-9 players as possible in order to force turnovers and secure victory in the possession game. However, they sorely lacked rim protection until the arrival of Poeltl and still lack shooting in their lineups. They ranked 22nd in the league in three-point attempts per game and 28th in three-point percentage. Even if a new coach comes in employing lineups in favor of more shooting, the personnel still needs to be addressed to support it.
But even though the Raptors chose to keep this group together, the reality is that the Poeltl deal may have only bought them a little more time. All of Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, Jakob Poeltl, OG Anunoby, and Gary Trent Jr. are due for new contracts with significant raises within the next two years. And after that, Scottie Barnes will be due for a new deal. The Raptors will either have to spend deep into the tax to keep this group together or pick who they want to pay and move the others.
Toronto is heading into the 2023 offseason $55 million below the luxury tax with 11 players, including their first-round pick. This projection factors in VanVleet and Trent Jr. declining their respective player options. Most likely, re-signing all three of VanVleet, Poeltl, and Trent Jr. will take the Raptors over the tax threshold, but not by too much. They would still be able to get under later if needed with a trade or by waiving some non-guaranteed players like Thaddeus Young.
Running back this year’s roster leaves them with little flexibility to address other aspects of it. They can add a rotation player with the mid-level exception and find more via trade. Outside their Top 6 players, they have roughly $40 million combined owed to rotation players they could potentially use as outgoing salaries in trades for bench upgrades.
Even if the Raptors do commit to becoming big tax spenders, either with this exact core or a variation of it, the implementation of the second apron could hamper that. Teams above the second apron can only increase payroll by re-signing their own players, signing draft picks, and minimum players. This will require teams to have their depth in order before going above the second apron since it’ll be harder to replenish it later.
This can probably be said about most teams in the league, but maybe all Toronto is missing is a star. Their core proved to be an excellent support cast around Kawhi Leonard when they won the title in 2019, and that may be what it takes to truly bring them back to contention again. Such a move may justify massive luxury tax payments and navigating the limited flexibility above the second apron. Either way, Toronto’s payroll is quickly adding up and they could easily be back in the same position they were in the 2023 trade deadline.
Free agents
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Fred VanVleet is expected to become an unrestricted free agent this summer when he declines his $22.8 million player option. He remains extension-eligible through June 30, but he can receive more this offseason as a free agent. He could be looking at a contract that puts his annual salary on par with other veteran guards like Jrue Holiday, Kyle Lowry, and Jalen Brunson. VanVleet already could’ve gotten that salary range in an extension if the new higher extension limits that are set to be implemented in the new CBA were already in place.
Jakob Poeltl is another unrestricted free agent the Raptors will prioritize this summer. He could be looking at a contract for around double his current salary range that would be comparable to centers like Jarrett Allen, Nikola Vucevic, and Clint Capela. Like VanVleet, he is currently extension-eligible through June 30 but will be able to receive much more money in free agency.
Gary Trent Jr. could become an unrestricted free agent if he declines his $18.6 million player option. His long-term role with this Raptors core seems uncertain after he was demoted from the starting lineup but still played starter-level minutes as one of their only reliable shooters. It’s unclear just how much the Raptors will prioritize re-signing Trent Jr. if he hits free agency, but his market could be a long-term deal at around his current salary range.
Extensions
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Pascal Siakam will become extension-eligible throughout 2023-24 for up to four years, $189.1 million. That is the equivalent of signing a four-year maximum contract in the 2024 offseason, which would have him earn $52.3 million in 2027-28. However, he could still qualify for the supermax if he earns All-NBA honors this year. That would allow him to extend this offseason for up to five years, projected at $285.6 million. With a heavier emphasis on games played among awards voters going forward, Siakam could get in after playing 72 games.
OG Anunoby will also be extension-eligible next season and will be positively impacted by the new rules. He will be eligible to extend for a maximum of four years, $116.9 million, which is a $16.7 million increase over what the current extension rules allow. It’ll be interesting to see if that will bridge the gap between both sides to get a deal done now. Otherwise, he can decline his player option in 2024 and earn more in free agency.
Precious Achiuwa will be eligible for a rookie-scale extension during the offseason. He was their most reliable center outside of Poeltl and has filled in nicely as a starter when needed. An extension in the four-year, $50 million range similar to what Wendell Carter Jr. and Robert Williams III got could make sense.
2023-24 SALARY SITUATION
Players rostered: 13
Guaranteed salaries: $138.5 million
Non-guaranteed salaries: $9.9 million
Total salary: $148.4 million
Luxury tax space: $13.5 million
Apron space: $20.4 million
Second apron space: $30.4 million
Spending power:
Non-taxpayer Mid-level: $12.2 million
Bi-Annual: $4.5 million
Pascal Siakam
Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports
2023-24 salary: $37,893,408
Remaining salary guaranteed: $37,893,408
Additional notes:
Eligible to extend starting this offseason for up to four years, projected at $189.1 million
If he meets the supermax criteria, he will be eligible to extend during the offseason for up to five years, projected at $285.6 million
Fred VanVleet
Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports
2023-24 salary: $22,824,074 (player option)
Remaining salary guaranteed: $22,824,074
Additional notes:
VanVleet remains extension-eligible through June 30 for up to four years, $114 million
If he opts in, he will be extension-eligible next season for up to four years, $143.2 million
OG Anunoby
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2023-24 salary: $18,642,857
Remaining salary guaranteed: $38,571,428 through 2024-25
Additional notes:
Player option in 2024-25 worth $19.9 million
Eligible to extend starting this offseason for up to four years, projected at $116.9 million
Gary Trent Jr.
Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports
2023-24 salary: $18,635,000
Remaining salary guaranteed: $18,635,000
Additional notes:
$75,000 likely incentives and $175,000 unlikely incentives
If he opts in, he will be extension-eligible next season for up to four years, $116.4 million
Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
2023-24 salary: $11,750,000
Remaining salary guaranteed: $22,560,000 through 2024-25
Scottie Barnes
David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
2023-24 salary: $8,008,680
Remaining salary guaranteed: $18,139,660 through 2024-25
Thaddeus Young
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2023-24 salary: $8,000,000
Remaining salary guaranteed: $1,000,000
Additional notes:
2023-24 salary is partially guaranteed for $1 million. Fully guaranteed if not waived by June 30
$500,000 unlikely incentives
Otto Porter Jr.
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2023-24 salary: $6,300,000 (player option)
Remaining salary guaranteed: $6,300,000
Precious Achiuwa
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2023-24 salary: $4,379,527
Remaining salary guaranteed: $4,379,527
Additional notes:
Eligible to sign a rookie-scale extension during the offseason for up to five years
John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
2023-24 salary: $3,873,025
Remaining salary guaranteed: $3,873,025
Additional notes:
Eligible to sign a rookie-scale extension during the offseason for up to five years
2023-24 salary: $1,927,896
Remaining salary guaranteed: $0
Additional notes:
2023-24 salary is non-guaranteed. Fully guaranteed if not waived by June 30
2023-24 salary: $1,719,864
Remaining salary guaranteed: $1,719,864
Additional notes:
2024-25 salary is non-guaranteed
Jakob Poeltl
Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
Cap hold: $17,856,481
Type of free agent: Bird (unrestricted)
Additional notes:
Can avoid free agency and extend with the Raptors by June 30 for up to four years, $58 million
Dalano Banton
Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
Cap hold: $2,189,698
Type of free agent: Early Bird (restricted)
Will Barton
(Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
Cap hold: $1,989,698
Type of free agent: Non Bird (unrestricted)
Jeff Dowtin Jr.
Cap hold: $1,774,999
Type of free agent: Non Bird (restricted)
Ron Harper Jr.
Cap hold: $1,774,999
Type of free agent: Non Bird (restricted)
2023 Pick No. 13
2023-24 salary: $4,469,400
Remaining salary guaranteed: $21,104,176 through 2026-27
Additional notes: HoopsHype and ForTheWin’s draft expert Bryan Kalbrosky has Nick Smith Jr. being selected with the 13th overall selection in his most recent mock draft.
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