Ranking Patriots' 2024 regular-season matchups, from best to worst

As the Patriots head into the first week of OTAs, it's a good time to rank their 17 matchups from best (likely the closest and most entertaining games) to the worst (likely the most lopsided, underdog games). These are all based on the current Patriots' roster and their opponents.

Of course, things like injuries, acquisitions, and development of younger players are hard to predict. So these will strictly be looked at as on-paper matchups.

It has been an exciting offseason for the Patriots so far with the team first naming Jerod Mayo as head coach, Eliot Wolf as executive vice president of player personnel, drafting quarterback Drake Maye and extending mainstays such as Mike Onwenu and Christian Barmore. It feels like there’s been an overall refresh of the New England football program.

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How will it all impact the 2024 season? Here’s a ranking of the Patriots’ 2024 regular-season matchups, from best to worst:

17. Week 2: Patriots vs. Seahawks

This game is the home opener, but these two teams are fairly even with promising youth on both sides of the ball that have yet to see action. Could we see Drake Maye in the home opener? That is yet to be determined, but regardless, this should be a fairly good game for both sides.

16. Week 9: Patriots at Titans

This is another game in which both teams are evenly matched on paper. I also like the potential of this being a shootout between Will Levis and Maye, as both have strong arms and some receivers with sure hands. This will be a fun one to watch with both teams essentially resetting their programs and roster at the same time as they try to get back to the playoffs.

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15. Week 17: Patriots vs. Chargers

This one is all but a guarantee that we see a shootout between Justin Herbert and Maye. I view the two of them as very similar quarterbacks, and it is very likely that Maye will be the starter by then. Herbert and the Chargers might even be swinging for a playoff spot as the Patriots try to play spoiler.

14. Week 3: Patriots at Jets

I personally enjoy Thursday nght football, and the Patriots and Jets have had some close matchups recently. But they have yet to face off with Aaron Rodgers as a New York Jet. It is likely he will be playing in this game, and we could see a fun battle between Maye and Rodgers in the only primetime game of the year for the Patriots.

13. Week 8: Patriots vs. Jets

Much like the game before, the Patriots and Jets always seem to have close matchups, and this will be the final one of the season with the Jets coming to New England. If we see Jacoby Brissett taking on Aaron Rodgers in the first matchup, it is likely this could be the game in which Maye takes the field. A matchup between Maye and Rodgers could be a lot of fun as two extremely talented quarterbacks throw the football around the yard.

12. Week 7: Patriots at Jaguars

This Jaguars and Patriots matchup is across the pond, and I have both teams relatively similar on paper right now. The Patriots will unfortunately get a Jaguars team that is well adjusted to the time zone — Jacksonville will stay in London for two straight weeks — and they will need to figure out ways to squeeze out a victory.

11. Week 10: Patriots at Bears

Caleb Williams and the Bears host Drake Maye and the Patriots in this game. It will be the No. 1 overall pick taking on the No. 3 overall pick of the draft. I don’t have this one higher because the Bears, on paper, have a much more talented offense around Williams, who is already listed as the starter for the team. He should have eight games of experience under his belt by this game.

10. Week 11: Patriots vs. Rams

The Patriots host the Rams, and although there is no Aaron Donald to scare Maye into throwing every pass in the fourth row, the defense is still solid. Matthew Stafford seems healthy again, and Cooper Kupp is also in a good place. The Rams are set up for success, and although this could be a close game, I ultimately feel this is one where the Patriots may fall behind fast.

9. Week 12: Patriots at Dolphins

The Patriots don’t have to travel to Miami in the sweltering heat of September, and they will likely see a nice breeze in late November. This game will be fun to watch as Christian Gonzalez will likely shadow one of the game’s best receivers in Tyreek Hill. The Patriots should have a much better offensive unit than last year, making this a more competitive game than originally thought.

8. Week 13: Patriots vs. Colts

The Patriots welcome the Colts, who improved their defense and will have a healthy Anthony Richardson with some much-needed speed on the outside. They also will have running back Jonathan Taylor fully healthy and engaged. I think the Colts will give the Patriots a harder run for their money than most think, which is why this is one of their harder games in 2024.

7. Week 15: Patriots at Cardinals

This game will be harder on paper, as the Cardinals are much improved and will have a healthy Kyler Murray. Mobile quarterbacks have given the Patriots fits in the past, and this should be more of the same. This game is also one in which the Patriots will be fresh off a bye week. If Maye hasn’t made his debut yet, this will probably be the game that he does.

6. Week 1: Patriots at Bengals

Joe Burrow is healthy, Tee Higgins is hungry and the Bengals’ offensive line is much improved. The Patriots also have a couple of old friends in Mike Gesicki and Trent Brown playing for the Bengals now.

The Bengals pose a tough matchup for everyone, including the Patriots. They’re looking to dust off last year’s frustrations. I expect this to be a very tough game for the new coaching staff and whoever is starting under center for the Patriots in the season-opener.

5. Week 5: Patriots vs. Dolphins

Although this is a home game, it is an important divisional one that I believe will be very hard for the Patriots to win early in the season. Weeks 5-7 are typically where a lot of the more dominant teams start to shine, and Miami, on paper, could give this Patriots team nightmares early.

4. Week 6: Patriots vs. Texans

CJ Stroud has the makings of a top-five quarterback, and the Texans clearly see it, too. After how good they looked last year, they made significant upgrades on both sides of the ball, shelling out real money to high-end players.

You don’t win games on paper, but this one certainly has the makings of an early blow out over the Patriots, who are lacking in talent. We have yet to see the young players in New England take form, but as of now, this game is a rough one for them early in the season.

As I previously mentioned, good teams start to heat up around that Week 5-7 range.

3. Week 18: Patriots vs. Bills

The Patriots play the Bills twice in three weeks to end the season, but this game will be at home. The weather will likely be frigid, but not as bad as it could be in Buffalo. Regardless, Josh Allen and the Bills always give the Patriots fits. However, this one should be closer as the season is very likely decided at this point, and the stars will rest for the playoffs.

2. Week 16: Patriots at Bills

This game will be under much different circumstances. This game will be held in a much colder Buffalo, and the Bills will still be fighting for the best seed possible. I think this could be a brutal loss for the Patriots.

1. Week 4: Patriots at 49ers

The Patriots travel to San Francisco to take on the defending NFC champs and one of the best defenses in the last five years. Although the Patriots have a top defense, the offense is too inexperienced at this juncture.

I believe if Drake Maye is starting, it will be harder for him to find success. Not that he shouldn’t play, but this is a game for which the 49ers might be heavily favored — and rightfully so. This is likely the hardest game on the Patriots’ schedule, and it comes early in the season, when the 49ers will likely be fully healthy. On paper, San Francisco is just the better football team.

This article originally appeared on The Providence Journal: Rankings Patriots' 2024 regular-season matchups, from best to worst