Ranking eleven schools by likelihood of joining the next round of potential Big Ten expansion
The college football world was pushed into chaos again a little over a week ago when — seemingly out of the blue — news broke that USC and UCLA were all set to join the Big Ten beginning in 2024.
It was a further springboard of change that we’ve seen in the landscape of college football after the news of Texas and Oklahoma joining the SEC last year. Add that to the transfer portal, Name, Image, and Likeness, and talks about expanding the College Football Playoff, and there’s no doubt we’re in a period where we are experiencing a complete remake of the CFB model.
But is it done? Reports have surfaced that the SEC will be staying put at 16 teams right now, and it has gotten a bit quiet since the Big Ten bombshell. But it was also pretty silent before the news of Big Ten expansion made a sonic boom.
And in a world where it seems the Big Ten and SEC are trading blows to become the king of college football revenue, one has to wonder when another aftershock occurs. So, if the Big Ten isn’t done, what other schools might be candidates for being added to the conference that now spans from sea to shining sea?
We break down and rank ten teams and their likelihood of joining the Big Ten if things continue to move towards superconferences. We are only focusing on teams that are AAU members since that seems to be a considerable prerequisite for culture and academics (that somehow seems to matter in all of this).
Colorado
Oct 19, 2019; Pullman, WA, USA; Colorado Buffaloe’s helmet sits during a football game against the Washington State Cougars in the first at Martin Stadium. Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
Why it makes sense
This makes sense only because Colorado would likely jump at the chance. It was always a little weird having the Buffs in the Pac-12 anyway being so far away from the west coast, and the institution is an AAU member that puts it on the shortlist for the Big Ten.
Arizona
Nov 17, 2018; Pullman, WA, USA; Arizona Wildcats helmet sits during a football game against the Washington State Cougars in the first half at Martin Stadium. Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
Why it makes sense
Arizona joining the Big Ten is low on the list, but it is intriguing when you consider that it’s a new market to get into with a booming Phoenix a part of being in play. Arizona State would make more sense for that reason, but it is not an AAU member.
California
Nov 3, 2018; Pullman, WA, USA; California Golden Bears helmet sits during a football game against the Washington State Cougars in the second half at Martin Stadium. The Cougars won 19-13. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
Why it makes sense
No two conferences are aligned with culture and academics like the Big Ten and Pac-12 (or whatever it’ll be called going forward). That’s why USC and UCLA joining the conference made so much sense. And, with UCLA being a part of the California network, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Cal also make the jump.
Stanford
Nov 20, 2021; Stanford, California, USA; General view of the Stanford Cardinal helmet during the third quarter against the California Golden Bears at Stanford Stadium. Credit: Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports
Why it makes sense
You are going to see a lot of Pac-12 teams on this list because all of those programs are probably the ripest for picking when it comes to wanting to jump ship for survival and health. Stanford is a great athletic and academic reputation and would be a great addition to the Big Ten if there is interest from both sides.
Pittsburgh
Sep 25, 2021; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; A Pittsburgh Panthers helmet sits on the sidelines against the New Hampshire Wildcats during the fourth quarter at Heinz Field. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Why it makes sense
I haven’t seen Pitt discussed very much when looking at teams that make sense, but it wouldn’t surprise me. Getting out of the Grant of Rights agreement in the ACC is going to be a challenge for any team trying to make the move from that conference, but geographically it makes a lot of sense and would be a great addition for Penn State as a rival. Yes, Pitt is an AAU member as well.
Duke
A Duke football helmet on the Duke’s sideline during the game against MTSU on Saturday, Sept. 14, 2019, at MTSU. Credit: USA TODAY Sports Network
Why it makes sense
The Blue Devils don’t have much of a football tradition, but it would significantly enhance the basketball pedigree of the league. The culture isn’t a great fit with Northwestern already the upper-end academic school of the league, but with North Carolina being among the teams that have been considered and talked about when it comes to Big Ten expansion, it would make sense for Duke — its heated rival — to be a package deal.
North Carolina
Oct 30, 2021; South Bend, Indiana, USA; A detailed view of a North Carolina Tar Heels football helmet during warmups before the game against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Notre Dame Stadium. Credit: Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports
Why it makes sense
North Carolina has come up more than once when talking about Big Ten expansion, even in previous years. It’s mainly because the Research Triangle is a growing television market, the culture is a fit. Carolina would significantly enhance the basketball perception of the league. This probably doesn’t happen though if Duke isn’t also on board. Oh, yeah, and the Grant of Rights will have to be addressed at some point.
Kansas
Nov. 2, 2019; Lawrence, KS, USA; A general view of a Kansas Jayhawks helmet during the game against the Kansas State Wildcats at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Why it makes sense
Kansas doesn’t check off all the boxes, but it does have appeal for the Big Ten. There are almost no football reasons to do it, but we all know what the move would do for basketball. Add that to a geographical match and academic similarities and you could very easily see this one happening. There have been whispers of it already after Texas and Oklahoma made the move to the SEC.
Washington
Nov 23, 2018; Pullman, WA, USA; Washington Huskies helmet sits during a football game against the Washington State Cougars in the second half at Martin Stadium. Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
Why it makes sense
With USC and UCLA now gone from the Pac-12, Washington is one of the two most attractive teams left on the left coast. There’s the Seattle television market that is a top fifteen one, and the school fits many of the desires with a pretty good football pedigree and academic culture.
Oregon
Jan 2, 2021; Glendale, AZ, USA; Oregon Ducks running back Sean Dollars (5) against the Iowa State Cyclones in the Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium. Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Why it makes sense
Phil Knight of Nike fame has reportedly been calling to see if there is interest in adding Oregon to another conference. And make no mistake, Oregon has turned itself into a prize that makes sense for the Big Ten. It’s now a top-ten fanbase that also has AAU membership with academics. Getting the Ducks into the conference makes more sense than almost any other program out there, save for one.
Notre Dame
ARLINGTON, TEXAS – DECEMBER 29: A detailed view of a Notre Dame Fighting Irish player’s helmet showing the CFP logo during the College Football Playoff Semifinal Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic against the Clemson Tigers at AT&T Stadium on December 29, 2018, in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Why it makes sense
Could the latest tectonic shift in college football finally, mercifully, make this happen — at least in football? Notre Dame has long been chased and there’s been interest on both sides, but never at the same time. Culturally, geographically, and almost every other way possible, joining the Big Ten has always made sense save for the Irish wanting to stay independent because of the money it gets with its own television deal. However, with the money the Big Ten is about to make and dole out to its members, that might have a shelf-life.
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