Ranking the 5 Southwest Missouri high school football teams most likely to win state
Postseason football begins this week and every team in the area will have the opportunity to chase its dream of storming the field in Columbia as state champions.
We ranked the five teams in the area we think have the best chance at making a special run this postseason. We ranked it based on the team's play during the regular season and how difficult the road is ahead.
1. Lamar
The Tigers' lone loss this year came to Seneca which is playing in the Class 3 tournament while Lamar stays in Class 2. The Tigers are the top-ranked team in Class 2 and have showcased one of the best defenses in the state this season.
Lamar's district is full of teams it's played well against in years past. We could see the Tigers' first big test come in the state quarterfinals if they were to meet up with No. 3 Lafayette County. The next week in the state semifinals, Lamar could play No. 2 East Buchanan.
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It's difficult to bet against Lamar when it's been to the state championship in three consecutive seasons. No matter the turnover on the roster, the Tigers have gotten there each year since Jared Beshore took over the area's best powerhouse program over the last decade.
2. Marionville
We almost had the Comets as the most likely team to win state but we couldn't pass on Lamar. The Comets are ranked No. 1 in Class 1 and have been the most dominant team against their competition in the area this season.
Their most difficult competition could come in district play with a potential date with Portageville in the district championship. Portageville is the No. 2-ranked team in the state. In Class 1 this year, district championships also serve as state quarterfinals.
A look at the remainder of the field and the Comets wouldn't have to play No. 3 North Platte or No. 4 Milan until a potential state title game or No. 5 Tipton until the state semifinals. Many eyes will be on the Class 1, District 1 championship game. The Comets should get there easily as they could play opponents they blew out during the regular season. Portageville could have a tough test against Thayer in the district semifinals — when the Bobcats' schedule is full of teams that play in higher classes.
3. Winner of potential Ava vs. Seneca quarterfinal
Yeah, we cheated here. Sorry. These two have been so good this season and we'd expect them to meet in the Class 3 state quarterfinals. Ava's closest game was within 24 points this season while Seneca went undefeated in a gauntlet of a Big 8 West schedule.
Ava is a heavy favorite in its district having beaten two-seed Mountain Grove by 24 earlier in the year. Seneca has great Big 8 East teams in its district including Mount Vernon and last year's Class 3 runner-up Reeds Spring. Seneca beat Reeds Spring 54-21 in Week 6.
After these two potentially play, Class 3 No. 3 Maryville or No. 8 Odessa could be waiting for them in the state semifinals. A matchup with No. 1 Blair Oaks, the reigning Class 2 champ, could come in a state championship.
More: Here are your Southwest Missouri high school football power rankings after Week 9
4. Nevada
The Tigers have one of the best offensive lines and ground attacks in the state. We saw them go toe-to-toe with Lamar and Seneca this season. They have to be in the Class 4 conversation as they're ranked No. 8 in the state.
Nevada could get a quick challenge after a bye if Grandview was to advance. At 3-6, the Bulldogs are still ranked No. 10 in the state. They had to forfeit their first four games of the season after using an ineligible player, which skews their record and district ranking.
A win there and Nevada could be looking at a path to the state quarterfinals where it could meet up with No. 1 Smithville which is 8-1 this season. The Warriors' lone loss was by a touchdown to Class 5 No. 9 Platte County. If the Tigers come out of that, there's no one they feel will be able to beat them.
5. Lebanon
The Yellowjackets have been awesome this year on both sides of the ball. Their rushing attack remains among the state's best and they rarely turn the ball over. At the same time, the defense can shut you down and get after the quarterback.
The Class 5 No. 4-ranked team is the favorite when there could be a matchup with No. 7 Republic in the district championship and a potential date with No. 3 Helias Catholic in the state quarterfinals. You're also looking at the possibility of No. 2 Grain Valley or No. 6 Webb City in the state semifinals.
Lebanon's ability to run the ball should have it in any game it plays. Most of these teams have defenses that have been solid against the run this year but we haven't seen anyone that has been able to slow the Jackets down yet.
Where the heck is Nixa?
The angry shouts we hear outside our newsroom are the Nixa half of Christian County wondering where their Eagles are in the top five. Tied for third in the state, the Eagles would be right there at No. 6 but we made a top five instead of a top six.
Nixa's the favorite in its district that features Kickapoo and Joplin as its toughest competitors. We're very curious to see how Joplin looks against Kickapoo when Quin Renfro's been on a tear over the last few weeks after he was injured for part of the season. Could his late-season emergence make up the eight points Joplin lost to Nixa by if the two were to meet again?
Whoever then comes out of that district will go up against the Class 6 No. 1 team out of Lee's Summit North — which has been overwhelmingly the best team in the state this year. This was a state runner-up team a year ago that beat Nixa 24-10 in a district championship game. Lee's Summit North features defensive end Williams Nwaneri, who some have as the No. 1 overall player in the 2024 class, four-star receiver Isaiah Mozee, three-star linebacker Chase Pearsall and others. This has turned into a college football factory.
If Nixa/Joplin/Kickapoo beats Lee's Summit North? Southwest Missouri football is feeling pretty good about itself with No. 2 Liberty North in the state semifinals and a potential date with DeSmet in the championship.
Wyatt D. Wheeler is a reporter and columnist with the Springfield News-Leader. You can contact him at 417-371-6987, by email at wwheeler@news-leader.com or X at @WyattWheeler_NL. He's also the host of the weekly "Wyatt's World Podcast" on Spotify, Apple Podcasts and other podcasting platforms
This article originally appeared on Springfield News-Leader: Springfield high school football state contenders in 2023 playoffs
