Rangers-Panthers preview: Inside the line-by-line matchups, with series prediction

Chris Kreider didn't need any words to get his point across.

Asked if he allowed himself much time to savor his third-period hat trick in the Rangers' memorable Game 6 win to close out the Carolina Hurricanes on Thursday, he simply motioned as if he was turning the page of a book.

That said it all.

The Blueshirts' focus has fully shifted to the Eastern Conference Final, where the mighty Florida Panthers await for Game 1 on Wednesday at 8 p.m. at Madison Square Garden.

"We understand that the hardest work is yet to come, starting in this round," Rangers head coach Peter Laviolette said following Monday's practice at the MSG Training Center in Tarrytown. "I think our guys are ready for that challenge. I don't think we're looking backwards in our rearview mirror with a big smile on our face. I think that the toughest work is in front of us, and we've got to be ready for it."

With that in mind, let's continue with our look ahead to this showdown between the East's top-two seeds.

Part one of our EFC preview included five questions regarding the best-of-seven series, and now part two will dissect the lineups for each team and analyze how they match up.

Forwards

Top lines

NYR – Chris Kreider (LW) ⋄ Mika Zibanejad (C) ⋄ Jack Roslovic (RW)

FLA – Vladimir Tarasenko (LW) ⋄ Aleksander Barkov (C) ⋄ Sam Reinhart (RW)

Analysis: There are some stark similarities between these two lines. Both have strong two-way centers in the middle and former 50-plus goal-scorers on the wing, with Kreider netting 52 back in 2021-22 and Reinhart potting 57 this season.

Their results have been similar, as well. Kreider’s historic hat trick boosted his line’s offensive output in the playoffs, but they generally play a low-event style and draw some of the toughest defensive assignments.

The same can be said for the Panthers’ top line, which has only produced three goals through 11 playoff games but allowed just one. There’s a reason Barkov was awarded his second career Selke Trophy on Sunday, with opponents only averaging 1.48 goals per 60 minutes while the 6-foot-3, 215-pounder was on the ice at five-on-five this season, according to Evolving Hockey.

“He’s a top centerman in the league,” Laviolette said.

Barkov’s line has generated a 56.3% xGF in these playoffs, according to moneypuck.com, while Zibanejad’s line is at 46.5%. And with the addition of Tarasenko, who Rangers’ fans know well as a proven playoff performer, the scales seem tilted slightly in Florida’s favor.

Edge: Panthers

Second lines

NYR – Artemi Panarin (LW) ⋄ Vincent Trocheck (C) ⋄ Alexis Lafrenière (RW)

FLA – Carter Verhaeghe (LW) ⋄ Anton Lundell (C) ⋄ Matthew Tkachuk (RW)

Analysis: This should be a much higher event matchup.

Trocheck’s line was the league’s highest scoring unit this season, racking up 54 goals with an average of 3.75 goals for per 60. Panarin led the charge with 120 points (49 goals and 71 assists), but Trocheck (77) and Lafrenière (57) also hit new career highs to make this a well-balanced attack.

That’s continued in the playoffs, as they’ve led all NHL lines with seven goals scored while posting a 56% xGF. But they’ve also allowed a league-high six goals against, showing how their push for offense can sometimes get them into trouble defensively.

While the Panarin-Trocheck-Lafrenière trio has been together pretty much all season, the Panthers’ second line has seen more turnover. The 22-year-old Lundell moved up to replace Sam Bennett during Friday’s series-clinching win over the Boston Bruins, which is the arrangement they’re expected to use to begin the ECF.

That line has been much more effective with Lundell in the middle, outscoring opponents by a 5-1 margin in just 47.3 minutes with a 66.7% xGF and 40-25 advantage in unblocked shot attempts. All three have produced at least nine points in the playoffs, led by 14 from Tkachuk, while Tkachuk and Verhaeghe have combined for 11 game-winning goals between the last two postseasons.

The likelihood is that Florida will mix and match it’s top-six forwards, with Barkov’s line being used to shutdown Panarin at times. But whoever the Rangers’ most productive trio lines up against, they’re going to need to win their matchup more often than not to win the series.

Edge: Rangers

Third lines

NYR – Filip Chytil (LW) ⋄ Alex Wennberg (C) ⋄ Kaapo Kakko (RW)

FLA – Eetu Luostarinen (LW) ⋄ Sam Bennett (C) ⋄ Evan Rodrigues (RW)

Analysis: All signs are pointing to Chytil rejoining the Rangers’ lineup for Game 1.

He’s missed three straight following his triumphant return in Game 3 against the Canes, but whatever illness he was dealing with last week has clearly subsided. Chytil said he felt “great” on Sunday and left no doubt about his desire to play, then practiced in full with the third line on Monday.

Even with the rust factor, adding the dynamic 24-year-old makes the Rangers look much deeper. He may be the fastest skater on the team (it’s either him or Kreider) and has never met a shot he wouldn’t take.

Finishing has been an issue for the third line we've seen the most of lately. Kakko, Wennberg and rookie Will Cuylle have generated excellent underlying numbers, with their 69.8% xGF ranking first among lines that remain in the playoffs and have logged at least 60 minutes together. But they’ve only registered two goals in 66.7 minutes.

“I do think they’re playing pretty good hockey, so if the process is right, it can lead to the right results,” Laviolette said. “I’d like to think that they are going to contribute. … Everybody has to find moments inside of a long playoff run.”

Perhaps Chytil will help fuel those results and take advantage of a winnable matchup against a trio of Florida forwards who haven’t spent much time together.

Edge: Rangers

Fourth lines

NYR – Will Cuylle (LW) ⋄ Barclay Goodrow (C) ⋄ Jimmy Vesey (RW)

FLA – Nick Cousins (LW) ⋄ Kevin Stenlund (C) ⋄ Ryan Lomberg (RW)

Analysis: The ripple effect of adding Chytil is that Laviolette can now roll all four lines with fewer restrictions.

He was constantly cutting down the bench in the games when raw rookie Matt Rempe occupied the 4RW spot, and while there was a clear uptick in usage when Jonny Brodzinski slotted in, Cuylle does more to complete a physical, grinding unit that can be trusted in key defensive situations.

The Panthers’ fourth line should be a pain in the you-know-what to play against, with Cousins and Lomberg likely to push the limits of the whistle and do everything they can to agitate the Rangers. Stenlund, who's winning 52.2% of his faceoffs this postseason, provides a steady defender in the middle.

They haven’t allowed a goal again in over 67 minutes combined minutes together between the regular season and playoffs, but they also spend a lot of time defending. Their regular-season xGF of 17.6% doesn’t inspire much confidence.

Edge: Rangers

Defensemen

Top pairs

NYR – Ryan Lindgren (L) ⋄ Adam Fox (R)

FLA – Gustav Forsling (L) ⋄ Aaron Ekblad (R)

Analysis: A healthy Chytil would be huge for the Rangers, but the biggest boost they could ask for would be a return to form for Fox. The former Norris Trophy winner hasn't looked like himself since his leg-to-leg collision with Caps defenseman Nick Jensen in the first round and has now failed to record a point in four consecutive games.

Fox was one of the few players to skip Sunday's optional practice, with the hope being the extra rest will benefit him going into the series against Florida. He returned for Monday’s practice, and when he’s right, he's a puck-moving, blue-line-dancing, point-producing force.

Meanwhile, Lindgren has missed back-to-back practices for maintenance, but anyone who’s followed this team over the years knows better than to question the status of the Rangers’ iron man.

The longstanding pair hasn’t been at their best in these playoffs, as evidenced by a 44.4% xGF and 41.94% shot share. And on the other side, the Panthers will be icing one of the NHL’s best duos.

Ekblad is their top defenseman – a 6-foot-4, 215-pound former No. 1 overall pick who eats up large chunks of ice with his long strides and closes gaps as well as anyone in the league. But it was Forsling who garnered some Norris votes this season for his outstanding defensive play, with the Panthers allowing only 1.52 goals against per 60 while he was on the ice at five-on-five. The 27-year-old also led all Florida defensemen with 39 points (10 goals and 29 assists), completing one a well-balanced, dynamite top pair.

Edge: Panthers

Second pairs

NYR – K'Andre Miller (L) ⋄ Jacob Trouba (R)

FLA – Niko Mikkola (L) ⋄ Brandon Montour (R)

Analysis: Laviolette surprised everyone by going back to the Miller-Trouba pair for Game 6 in Carolina after breaking up the longtime partners at the end of the regular season. And based on what we saw at Monday’s practice, he intends to keep it that way heading into the ECF.

Only one NHL pair has been on ice for more goals against the past two seasons than Miller and Trouba, who have combined to surrender to 97 in that span. (St. Louis’ Nick Leddy and Colton Parayko are slightly ahead at 101.) That’s made them a frequent subject of ire from the Rangers’ fan base, with some criticism warranted while some is over the top.

It’s now been three coaches in a row who prefer Miller and Trouba as a go-to matchup pair, but it feels especially risky given the captain’s uneven play since returning from a lower-body injury in late March. He was on ice for nine of Carolina’s 19 goals in the previous series, including one stretch of eight out of 10.

If those struggles continue, don’t be surprised to see Laviolette reunite Miller with Braden Schneider.

On the Florida side, Montour and Mikkola – another former Ranger who was acquired at last year’s trade deadline – have been solid. They posted a 51.7% xGF during the regular season, with Montour handling many of the puck-moving responsibilities while Mikkola uses his 6-foot-4 reach and closing ability to shut things down in the D zone.

Edge: Panthers

Third pairs

NYR – Erik Gustafsson (L) ⋄ Braden Schneider (R)

FLA – Oliver Ekman-Larsson (L) ⋄ Dmitry Kulikov (R)

Analysis: The Gustafsson-Schneider pairing worked well to begin the season but tailed off later on. Schneider certainly seemed to play better next to Miller, while Gustafsson has produced some of the shaky moments on the back end in these playoffs.

Laviolette put them back together for Game 6 in Carolina, then proceeded to cut down their ice time, with both defensemen logging their lowest totals of the postseason in that contest.

Florida coach Paul Maurice doesn’t use his third pair a ton, either, but they’ve been effective in limited minutes with a 54.6% xGF that leads all Panthers’ pairs in these playoffs. They’re both trusted veterans with size and mobility, which all coaches value at this time of year.

Edge: Panthers

Goalies

NYR – Igor Shesterkin

FLA – Sergei Bobrovsky

Analysis: There are a handful of very good Russian netminders in the NHL at the moment, with these two near the top of the list.

We can debate the merits of Bobrovsky’s inclusion as a Vezina Trophy finalist – I wouldn’t have had him in my top three – but there’s no denying this was another strong campaign from a 35-year-old who’s already won the award twice. He went 36-17-4 with a .915 save percentage, 2.37 goals against average and a league-high six shutouts.

“He worked on his game constantly,” said Laviolette, who coached Bobrovsky when he first entered the NHL with the Philadelphia Flyers. “He’s proven to be a top goaltender in the league, but he was a guy who worked every day on the ice. He wanted to get better at his craft, and he did.”

Bobrovksy’s 15.76 goals saved above expectation fell just short of Shesterkin’s 17.36 during the regular season, but the gap could have been even wider if not for the latter’s midseason slump.

Shesterkin took off after the all-star break, with 16.69 of those GSAx coming in his final 23 starts. His .930 SV% led all goalies who appeared in at least 15 games after the break.

The 28-year-old has carried that momentum into the playoffs, going 8-2 with a .923 SV% and 9.09 GSAx that both rank first among goalies whose teams are still alive.

The Rangers' advantage in net isn't as pronounced as it was in the previous two rounds, but the arrow remains pointing firmly in New York’s direction. They'll go as far as Shesterkin takes them.

Edge: Rangers

Power play

NYR – PP1: Fox, Zibanejad, Trocheck, Panarin and Kreider; PP2: Gustafsson, Lafrenière, Roslovic, Chytil and Wennberg

FLA – PP1: Montour, Reinhart, Barkov, Tkachuk and Verhaeghe; PP2: Ekman-Larsson, Bennett, Rodrigues, Tarasenko and Lundell

Analysis: Whether you’re talking regular season (26.4% or 23.5%) or playoffs (31.4% vs. 22%), the Rangers’ power play has the better track record.

It’s been a decisive advantage for them through the first two rounds – and that will need to continue with the Panthers grading out as the better five-on-five team.

They hit a little 0-for-9 funk against Carolina after beginning the playoffs by going 10-for-25 (40%), which Kreider snapped with his tying goal on Thursday.

“It wasn’t in a rut,” Laviolette said. “We were playing an extremely good penalty kill – one that had been really good at what they’ve done for the entire year. To think that we were going to score three goals a game, I think that was maybe the wrong thought process to have. You hope that the power play can make a difference in the series, and I think that they did.”

The biggest difference between New York and Florida is that, while the Rangers can beat you in a variety of ways – Kreider (18), Zibanejad (12), Panarin (11) and Trocheck (11) each record double-digit PP goals this season – the Panthers are reliant on one source. Reinhart led the league with 27 PP goals, followed by a significant drop-off to Verhaeghe with eight.

Edge: Rangers

Penalty kill

NYR – PK1: Goodrow, Trocheck, Lindgren and Trouba; PK2: Kreider, Zibanejad, Miller and Fox

FLA – PK1: Barkov, Reinhart, Forsling and Ekblad; PK2: Stenlund, Luostarinen, Mikkola and Kulikov

Analysis: It’s a similar story with the penalty kills.

Both teams are very good, but the Rangers are better. They ranked third in the league with an 84.5% kill rate, compared to 82.5% for the sixth-ranked Panthers, and have pushed that number to 89.5% in the playoffs, ahead of Florida’s 86.1%.

The Blueshirts also notably lead all playoff teams with four shorthanded goals, while the Panthers have halved that total with two.

Simply put, New York's PK is buzzing.

Edge: Rangers

Coaching

NYR – Peter Laviolette

FLA – Paul Maurice

Analysis: Here’s a fun/kind of weird fact: Laviolette replaced Maurice in Carolina, where he won his first and only Stanley Cup in 2006, before Maurice took the job back when Laviolette was fired in 2008.

Their paths are crossing again because, despite neither being 60 years old, they’ve both been around for a long time and racked up a lot of wins. Maurice ranks fourth all-time with 869, while Laviolette sits at No. 7 with 807.

That longevity comes from demanding coaching styles that preach similar principles – communication, accountability and work ethic.

“He was a big influence on my career – as a player, as a person,” said Trouba, who played six seasons under Maurice in Winnipeg. “You kind of know where you stand at all times with him. How he coaches is pretty straightforward. You’re either doing it correctly, or you’re not. I think he’s pretty blunt about that, but I also think he understands players and where they’re at, what they’re going through, and he’s got a certain way to sometimes deflect from it, or sometimes just pat you on the back, sometimes pick you up. He’s got a good read on what a player needs to do or hear at certain times.”

Both bench bosses have pushed their teams to balance out their skill with tenacity and aggression, helping propel them to the NHL’s elite. There’s been an emphasis on implementing an playoff-like intensity all season, and now we’ll find out which team is best prepared for the moment.

There's no question that Laviolette has raised the Rangers' level with his competitive practices and detailed approach, but much of the same could be said about Maurice since arriving in Florida two seasons ago.

Edge: Push

Prediction

There's a logical side of my brain that believes the Panthers are the better team.

They're battle-tested, having gone through the disappointment of losing in the first round after claiming the Presidents' Trophy in 2021-22, then using that as motivation to upset the historic Bruins last season on their march to a conference title. And they epitomize the balance of skill and snarl that every team desires at this time of year.

You want to talk about tenacity, well, Florida has it in spades.

Then there's the balanced collection of high-end talent. Barkov, Reinhart and Tkachuk are legitimate stars up front, with all three bringing the physical edge and 200-foot game needed to succeed come playoff time, while the rest of the forward group is deep and versatile. There's a clear advantage with their big, mobile D corps, as well, and Bobrovsky remains one of the best goalies in the NHL.

Much like the Hurricanes in the previous round, I believe the Panthers − who profile as the tougher opponent of the two − will tilt the ice in their favor at five-on-five. And while it's somewhat risky to continue and rely on New York's formula of goaltending, special teams and finishing ability, it's also why I keep coming back to them.

If there's a drop-off in any of those three areas, the Rangers will be in trouble. But if they can maintain that edge, their first trip to the Stanley Cup Final in 10 years is within reach.

Ultimately, though, this comes down to a gut call. I thought the Blueshirts were in big trouble when they entered the third period of Game 6 against Carolina trailing 3-1, but what happened in those final 20 minutes served as yet another reminder that something special is happening with this team. Their uncanny knack for coming through in the clutch − that "calm confidence" − has made me a believer, which is why I'm taking the Rangers in seven.

Vincent Z. Mercogliano is the New York Rangers beat reporter for the USA TODAY Network. Read more of his work at lohud.com/sports/rangers/ and follow him on Twitter @vzmercogliano.

This article originally appeared on Rockland/Westchester Journal News: Rangers-Panthers preview: Inside the matchups, with series prediction