Rams’ 7 keys to victory: How LA can upset the Packers
Not many people expect the Rams to win on Saturday. They opened as 7-point underdogs to the Packers, are playing on the road in chilly conditions and are battling a number of injuries to key players.
But they shouldn’t be counted out. They upset the Seahawks in the wild-card round and there’s no reason to believe this defense can’t pull off another win against the Packers this weekend.
Here are seven keys to success for Los Angeles in the divisional round, with an emphasis on red zone conversions and keeping the ball out of Aaron Rodgers’ hands.
Keep the Packers offense on the sideline
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The best way to slow down a high-scoring offense is to keep it on the sideline. There are two ways the Rams can do this, too. Getting the Packers off the field on third down will be crucial, albeit difficult; they ranked second in third-down conversion rate at 49.4%. The second way is to run the ball successfully. Again, easier said than done, but if there’s a weakness to this Packers team, it’s the run defense. They allowed 4.5 yards per carry, which ranked 21st in the NFL. Keeping Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense on the sideline and limiting their time of possession is maybe the single most important thing in this game. If the Rams can't get off the field on third down or they can't maintain possession with the ground game, they’ll need a few breaks to win this one.
Sack Aaron Rodgers at least four times
(AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)
It’s no secret that a team’s winning percentage drops the more its quarterback gets sacked. The same is true of the Packers and Rodgers. As good as he is at avoiding sacks and escaping trouble, Rodgers does take sacks like everyone else. And in games where he gets brought down a bunch, the Packers are notably worse than when he’s kept upright. Take a look at the difference in record when Rodgers is sacked more than four times and fewer than four times in his career (including postseason)
At least four sacks: 23-30-1 (.435)
Fewer than four sacks: 117-45 (.722)
That’s quite the gap, and if there’s a team that can get to Rodgers four-plus times, it’s the Rams. In 17 games played this season, the Rams had at least four sacks in nine of those games. They’ve had at least four sacks in each of their last three games, totaling 14 in that span. Pressuring Rodgers is one thing, but getting him on the ground to stall drives is another. They have to do more than just pressure him.
Force a turnover (or two)
(AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)
Alongside third-down percentage, the turnover battle is also a strong indicator of success. When the Rams force a turnover this season, they’re 9-3. When they don’t have a takeaway, they’re only 2-3. The same trend applies to the Packers offense. They only had six games with a turnover this season, but they were 3-3 in those games. When they didn’t have a turnover, they were a perfect 10-0. It’ll be a bonus if the Rams can turn an interception or fumble into a touchdown, as they did four times this season. In games where they scored a defensive touchdown, the Rams were 3-1.
Win the red zone battle
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Outscoring the Packers will be difficult enough. It’ll be even harder if the Rams can't convert in the red zone, which has been a trouble spot for them all season long. The Packers are phenomenal in the red zone, both offensively and defensively. The Rams, on the other hand, are not. The Rams ranked 19th in the regular season with a red zone touchdown rate of only 57.9%. They were better defensively, ranking 12th in the red zone, but that’s still not nearly as good as the Packers were on both sides of the ball. When Green Bay reached the red zone, it scored a touchdown a league-high 80% of the time. On defense, opponents found the end zone just 57.7% of the time, eighth in the NFL. The Rams have to be much better in the red zone than they have been lately if they’re to win this game because put simply, field goals won’t get it done.
Limit big plays
As we covered this week, the Packers love to create big plays on offense. They had 14 passes of at least 40 yards, which was tied for the most in the NFL. They also scored 13 passing touchdowns of at least 20 yards, tied for sixth-most. In games where the Packers had a play of at least 40 yards, either on the ground or through the air, they were 11-2. They were 2-1 in the other three games, so creating big plays is certainly a driver of success for Green Bay. The Rams only allowed two touchdown passes of at least 20 yards during the regular season and surrendered four passes of 40-plus yards, both of which were tied for the fewest in the league. Keeping plays in front of them will be key for the Rams defense.
Force the ball to go away from Davante Adams
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Adams is an absolute stud at wide receiver, but the Packers’ other players at the position aren’t exactly game-changers. Adams had 115 receptions in 14 games, and the next-closest wideout had just 33 – a tie between Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Allen Lazard. Valdes-Scantling is a big-play weapon, averaging 20.9 yards per catch, but he’s also not the most reliable receiver. He dropped seven passes on 63 targets. Lazard also had five drops on 46 targets, giving them each a drop rate of 11% – which is a high number. If the Rams can erase Adams and force Rodgers to look elsewhere with the football, it’ll make life difficult for the All-Pro quarterback.
Score at least 21 points
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The magic number for the Rams is 21. When they score more at least 21 points, they’re 8-1. When they score 20 points or fewer, they’re 3-5. That doesn’t mean scoring 21 against the Packers will automatically lead to a victory. Green Bay is the best offense that the Rams will have faced all season. But it’s hard to imagine the Rams beating the Packers by scoring fewer than 21 points. The Packers have only scored fewer than 22 points once this season, a 38-10 loss to the Buccaneers back in Week 6. This is the best defense the Packers will face, but their offense is capable of lighting up the scoreboard.
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