The race for fourth: An analysis of Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United's credentials
Going into Sunday's Premier League matches, Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United are separated by a single point and a single goal with 12 games of the season remaining.
Who is most likely to claim the final Champions League spot, and who will fall short?
Manchester United - 4th, Pld 28, Pts 51, GD 17
Reason to be cheerful
Under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, the feel-good factor is well and truly back at Old Trafford. Eight wins and a draw from Solskjaer's nine league matches underlines their improvement and has seen them gain nine and 12 points respectively on Arsenal and Chelsea since he took over. Paul Pogba's renaissance has been especially cheering.
Reason to be fearful
Is United's recent form sustainable? Runs like these tend to be followed by a few setbacks or a lull at the very least. Paris Saint-Germain also showed that United can be exposed by elite opposition.
Strength of opposition
A tricky run-in. United play fellow 'Big Six' opposition in four of their remaining 12 matches, as well as facing potentially awkward trips to Wolves, Everton and Crystal Palace.
Form
Peerless. United have comfortably more points than any other team in the Premier League since Solskjaer took over.
Harmony
If United's current situation were acted out in an episode of Dream Team, Stereophonics' Have a Nice Day would be playing over clips of Pogba and co smiling and high-fiving each other during training. That is how well things are going right now.
Manager rating
Through the roof. Charming, tactically smart, adores the club. If United fans were creating their dream coach in a lab, they'd struggle to produce something better than Solskjaer.
Distractions
Barring a miracle, United's Champions League campaign will end away at PSG on March 6, leaving them with just the FA Cup as a possible distraction. Speculation over Solskjaer's future could become an unwanted sub-plot.
Injuries and squad depth
The absence of Jesse Lingard and Anthony Martial for the next few weeks is a major blow. Romelu Lukaku and Alexis Sanchez are in theory pretty deluxe replacements, but both have been well below their best this season. Other fringe players like Juan Mata may have to step up.
History of bottling
No great pedigree in the bottling stakes, though failed to finish in the top four three seasons ago when they were involved in a similarly tight race.
Pressure - how critical is Champions League qualification?
Financially, United could cope without qualifying for the Champions League, while their history and standing ensures big names will still want to join. The most tangible blow to missing out could be in the calibre of manager they are able to attract should they ditch Solskjaer at the end of the season.
Our prediction:United to pinch fourth
Arsenal - 5th, Pld 28, Pts 50, GD 16
Reason to be cheerful
In spite of recent wobbles, Arsenal are only a point off the top four and with United still to visit the Emirates, theoretically have their fate in their own hands.
Reason to be fearful
Those recent wobbles, especially away from home where Arsenal have only won once in the league since beating Bournemouth in November.
Strength of opposition
Given Arsenal's struggles against elite opposition in recent years, it will be a relief to know they only have two of the Big Six left to play - Tottenham away in early March and then United at home a week later. That said away matches at Leicester, Watford, Everton and Wolves are hardly gimmes - especially given Arsenal's dismal form on the road.
Form
Since beating Tottenham 4-2 at the start of December, Arsenal have barely produced a coherent performance - with the 2-0 win over Chelsea probably the only exception.
Harmony
The anger of the late-Wenger years may have gone, but it has been replaced by a weary apathy. Enthusiasm for Unai Emery has waned since the start of the season, with fans concerned over the club's loss of identity. After last week's first leg defeat to Bate Barisov, they were heading dangerously close to broken badge territory.
Thursday night's second leg win provided much-needed respite, but it will only be a temporary reprieve if league performances continue to be inconsistent.
Manager rating
Most fans are still supportive of Emery, even if an increasing number are concerned by the lack of cohesion and discernible playing style.
Distractions
The debate around Mesut Ozil has been grating for some time, and is a topic that dominates the majority of Emery's press conferences. Aaron Ramsey's looming departure adds to the state of flux.
After securing a place in the Europa League last 16 by defeating Bate Borisov on Thursday, their fixture schedule will continue to be unrelenting.
Injuries
Rob Holding and Hector Bellerin's long-term absences have seriously undermined Arsenal's defence, which has been exposed again and again in recent weeks. Bellerin's injury has been particularly debilitating since he provides so much of Arsenal's width and they have no-one who is even close to being an adequate replacement. Danny Welbeck has also been much missed since his season ended in November.
Otherwise Arsenal have a clean bill of health, though Ozil's next bout of illness is never far away.
History of bottling
Missed out on fourth in the 2017-18 season after a damaging mid-season dip. Last year they were so far from the top four they didn't even have the chance to bottle it.
Pressure - How critical is Champions League qualification?
Extremely. Arsenal's entire business model is predicated on Champions League qualification funding their transfer spending. To miss out for a third straight season would be disastrous.
Our prediction: A painful near miss
Chelsea - 6th, Pld 28, Pts 50, GD 16
Reason to be cheerful
Um, not a lot. The most optimistic spin you could put on Chelsea's predicament is that the last time they were this terrible in February, they ended up winning the Champions League and FA Cup.
Reason to be fearful
The disconnect between manager and players - not to mention the increasing fan dissatisfaction - means the Maurizio Sarri experiment already looks doomed to failure.
Strength of opposition
Trips to Anfield and Old Trafford will fill Chelsea fans with dread, especially after comprehensive defeats at Tottenham, Arsenal and Manchester City this season. To stand a chance of finishing fourth, Chelsea can't afford to drop points in winnable looking home games Brighton, Wolves, West Ham, Burnley and Watford.
Form
Three losses in their last four league games have seen Chelsea drop out of the top four. Monday's FA Cup exit added to the gloom.
Harmony
Even by Chelsea's lofty standards, this is a pretty impressive implosion. If it were a Premier League Years' treatment, imagine Sarri clapping his hands above his head slowly while shaking his head mournfully - to the strains of Cast's Walk Away.
Manager rating
A section of the crowd were singing 'f--- Sarriball' on Monday during the defeat against Manchester United, which tells you pretty much all you need to know. At a club where patience has been in short supply since the Roman Abramovich takeover in 2003, Sarri appears to be heading the way of Andre Villas Boas and Luiz Felipe Scolari.
Anyone got a number for Guus Hiddink?
Distractions
Where to start. Not only are Chelsea expected to change their manager imminently, they also have a transfer ban hanging over them and could be hit with a partial stadium closure after the racist chanting that marred December's draw at MOL Vidi. Oh, and their contractual wrangle with former head coach Antonio Conte could go to court.
On the playing front, Sunday's Carabao Cup final means their fixture list is even more squeezed, which will continue to be the case if they stay in the Europa League. Should league results go against them in the next few weeks, Chelsea may opt for the United and Arsenal tactic of recent years and sacrifice domestic points to focus on the Europa League route into the Champions League.
Injuries
Goalkeeper Kepa Arrizabalaga is a doubt for Sunday's League Cup final with a hamstring injury, while Danny Drinkwater is also out. Despite the pretty much full strength squad, expect little tinkering from the rotation-averse Sarri.
History of bottling
Only twice in the Abramovich era have Chelsea failed to qualify for the Champions League - though one of those was last season when they fell away spectacularly after Christmas.
Pressure - How critical is Champions League qualification?
Financially they could take the hit, but to miss out on the Champions League for a second consecutive year would almost certainly mean losing Hazard. It would also be a reputational disaster, which would not go down well with the image-conscious Abramovich.
Our prediction: A second successive finish outside the top four.
Who do you think will finish fourth? Let us know in the comments below
