Pros and Cons: Should Yankees trade for Juan Soto?
The Yankees desperately need some thump in a lineup that was both injury-plagued and ineffective last season. A left-handed hitting outfielder who specializes in doing damage would be ideal.
Hello, Juan Soto?
Soto, one of the biggest offensive threats in baseball, might be available via trade as the Padres sort through their winter plans. He is one year away from free agency – more on that in the “Cons” department of this Pros and Cons piece – but he is a true offensive difference-maker who would inject life into an attack that sags behind the mighty Aaron Judge.
If he doesn’t stay in San Diego this year, Soto coming to The Bronx may be just the kind of mega, old-timey Yankee move that would tilt the dialogue about a team coming off a dismal 82-80 season. Perhaps it changes some fans’ minds about GM Brian Cashman and owner Hal Steinbrenner, even with the risk it entails.
Let’s delve into the reasons to trade for Soto and the reasons not to. Whatever happens, could go a long way toward shaping the 2024 Yankees. And beyond.
The Pros
Where do we start? Soto just turned 25 years old, meaning he’s not that much older than some of the prospects the Yankees might have to trade for him. This is not like dealing for a slugger whose best years are behind him. This is a hitter ascendant – his 35 homers in 2023 were a career-high and, for some players, power develops later. What if Soto’s got even more bombs in him? Swinging for that short right-field porch at Yankee Stadium could help him add to his total.
The Yankees were 29th in at-bats taken by left-handed hitters in 2023. Anthony Rizzo’s injury certainly impacted that, but it’s a low number for a team playing in the Stadium, traditionally a lefty haven. Soto’s handedness would help them balance a lineup that skews right-handed.
And it’s not much of a lineup right now. The Yankees were 25th in runs per game last year, 24th in OPS and 29th in batting average. Whatever you think of batting average as a statistic, it’s awful that the Yankees were only better than one team in that category all year – the 112-loss Athletics. Injuries were a part of that, sure, but so was ineffectiveness.
Soto’s .946 OPS over the course of his career is the best of any player who’s played at least 700 games since 2018, when Soto started. If you trim the games requirement on Baseball Reference’s Stathead to 500, Soto drops to third behind Mike Trout (1.024) and Judge (.980).
But that illustrates another one of Soto’s positive traits – he plays a lot. He’s got a streak of four straight full MLB seasons of appearing in 150-plus games.
Soto gets on base a ton – his .421 on-base percentage is the highest of any player who’s played at least 500 games since 2018, too. Soto, Trout and Freddie Freeman are the only three players over .400 in that span with that many games played. Imagine a guy who gets on base like that batting in front of Judge.
Yankee fans adore players who’ve performed in the MLB Postseason and Soto has done that, too. He shared the 2019 Babe Ruth Award, given to the top Postseason performer each year by the New York chapter of the BBWAA, with Nationals teammate Stephen Strasburg after Washington won the World Series. Soto had three homers, seven RBI and a 1.178 OPS in a seven-game series victory over Houston. In 29 career postseason games, Soto has 12 extra-base hits and 21 RBI.
Soto is often mentioned among some giants when talking about achievement at a young age. Baseball Reference’s Similarity Scores lists four Hall-of-Famers – Frank Robinson, Ken Griffey Jr., Orlando Cepeda and Eddie Mathews as comps through age-24 season. Soto, it seems, is always in lofty company.
The Cons
Soto has only one year of club control remaining and then he’ll head into an expensive free agency. Will the Yankees really take on another “aircraft carrier” contract when they’ve already got so many dollars committed to the likes of Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón?
Of course, can they really get appreciably better quickly if they don’t? What an uncomfortable question.
Soto is represented by Scott Boras and Boras has taken many, many big-name clients to free agency with great success. It might be difficult to trade for Soto and sign him to an extension if the market beckons. And once a player is up for bidding, who knows what could happen?
There’s also the cost in prospect talent. The Padres gave up promising players to get Soto midway through the 2022 season, but they got control of him for two-plus seasons at that point, which jacked up the talent price. In trade talks, the Yankees doubtless would point out how a potentially one-and-done-in-pinstripes acquisition can’t be as costly, prospect-wise.
Then there’s the one perceived weakness in Soto’s game: He’s not a great outfielder. MLB’s Statcast had him at minus-9 defensive runs saved last year, the third percentile. (For what it's worth, he was a Gold Glove finalist in left field back in 2019 before moving to right field.) If he were to be the everyday Yankee left fielder, he’d have to cope with an expansive left at the Stadium.
The Verdict
Honestly, this is easy. Make the move, if the Padres do shop him. Here are two numbers that illustrate why: 33 and 32.
Cole turned 33 in September and Judge will be 32 in April. Their primes are now and the Yankees might be squandering them.
Trade for Soto, show him how great The Bronx can be and maybe he sticks around to form, with Judge, one of the greatest hitting tandems in the game.
Soto is a star with skills – and swagger – the Yankees sorely need. Now. Trading young players for him might hurt, though prospects are no exact science. But Soto is only 25 and he’s already one of baseball’s best offensive players.
