The pros and cons of the Mets signing Aaron Judge

About an hour after Aaron Judge made the final out of the 2022 season at Yankee Stadium, he was asked about what comes next. He didn’t have much of an answer, which did nothing to satisfy the angry fans in New York, the hopeful Mets fans in Queens and the eager fans in his home state of California.

“No, not at all,” Judge said after the Yankees were swept by the Astros in the ALCS on Sunday night. “I’ve got plenty of time to figure that out.”

The outfielder is about to become the top free agent on the market this winter. With the Mets and Yankees doing something of a role reversal in recent years, there has been plenty of speculation that he’s headed to the big-spending team in Queens.

There is a lot to like about Judge in a Mets uniform, namely the prolific power bat he brings. To be clear, every team in the league should do their due diligence on a player like Judge. The price tag would likely preclude teams like the Oakland A’s and Tampa Bay Rays but Judge is a tremendous talent so every front office should, at the very least, kick the tires on him and examine whether or not he would be a fit for their club. His 36.7 fWAR ranks No. 1 for all qualified players since 2017.

We’ll look at the pros and cons of Judge going to the Mets but first we have to start with what his next contract might look like.

Judge turned down a $213.5 million, seven-year contract in the spring, which sent the message that he wants to be among the highest-paid players in baseball because he believes he is one of the best players in baseball. It was a gamble, but he chose to bet on himself.

Then he hit 62 home runs in the regular season and proved that he is among the upper echelon of elite players.

So what would it take to get him? At 30, he’s probably going to want career security, which means long term. Let’s say eight years. And if he didn’t take $30.5 per year in the spring, he certainly isn’t going to be accepting anything less now, so let’s ballpark it in the $40 million average annual value range.

PROS

Judge will hit 40-50 home runs per year, if not more. He has a career OPS of .977, a career OBP of .394 and he puts the ball in play with a career BABIP of .345. These are three metrics the Mets value highly with general manager Billy Eppler citing on-base numbers frequently in his postseason press conference a few weeks ago.

The Mets want to make pitchers work and value hitters who can take a lot of pitches, make hard contact and draw walks. Judge does all of this and adds a huge power element that the Mets badly need.

The station-to-station offense failed the Mets late in the regular season and the postseason when they didn’t get the big hits they needed. Starling Marte’s injury practically broke the Mets’ offense and there is an argument to be made that one player like that shouldn’t affect the rest of the lineup. Judge would make the Mets’ offense significantly more imposing.

The addition of Judge would directly impact Marte, the Mets’ current right fielder. He could slide back to center field, where he played before coming to the Mets.

CONS

According to a source, owner Steve Cohen is not interested in poaching players from the Yankees. But there are other items in the con category.

The Mets’ payroll is expected to exceed $300 million next season, but they have several holes to fill with so many players leaving in free agency, including ace Jacob deGrom. Sure, Cohen could probably give deGrom and Judge $40 million each next year if he really wanted to, but that might mean fewer dollars left to replace three starting pitchers, a closer and a handful of relievers.

The Mets would like to bring back deGrom, closer Edwin Diaz and possibly center fielder Brandon Nimmo. Bringing in Judge would eliminate the possibility of bringing back all three.

It should be noted that Judge’s postseason numbers have not matched his regular season numbers, but he will help a team get to the postseason. He owns a career line of .211/.310/.462 with a .772 OPS and 13 home runs in 12 series over six seasons.

If Judge doesn’t want to be a Yankee, then he probably doesn’t want to be in New York. Much has been made about fans in the Bronx booing him during the postseason but Mets fans booed Max Scherzer in his Wild Card start. The fanbases are different, but ultimately the market and the expectations are largely the same.

No one seems to know what, exactly, Judge and deGrom are looking for. There is speculation that both want to be closer to their respective homes but the only thing we know for sure is that they want to win. But it sounds like Judge isn’t in a hurry to figure it out.

“I’ve never been in this spot before,” Judge said. “So I don’t have the answers.”