Previewing Vikings vs. 49ers behind enemy lines
The Minnesota Vikings are going to be desperate for a win on Monday night when they take on the San Francisco 49ers. Sitting at 2-4, they are only a game out of a wild card spot and that isn’t too bad considering the circumstances.
The play of the Vikings so far this season has been quality. The underlying metrics believe that the Vikings are a good football team and their play has matched that. The biggest factor of the Vikings’ poor start? Turnovers.
The Vikings have turned the ball over 13 times with a negative seven turnover differential. To get a better sense on who the 49ers are, we spoke to Kyle Madson of 49ers Wire who gave us a lowdown of the team.
Brock Purdy struggled against the Cleveland Browns, specifically against man coverage. Is that the recipe to beat him?
I think there are a couple of layers to this answer. The short answer is no. Cleveland’s best weapon against Purdy specifically was its very good pass rush that clearly made him uncomfortable in the pocket. He missed a bunch of throws he normally hits, including throws to wide-open pass catchers. Since Week 14 of last year, Purdy has a 77.5 QBR vs. man coverage (No. 6 in the NFL). He also has 18 touchdowns and 1 interception against it according to ESPN.
On the other hand, the only 49ers receiver who’s capable of getting real separation is Brandon Aiyuk. It’s never been a strength of Deebo Samuel’s game and George Kittle is looking more like a 30-year-old tight end with a ton of mileage on his tires. It might behoove defenses to start playing more man if for no other reason than it becomes harder for Kyle Shanahan to scheme his guys open.
Is Christian McCaffrey that important to the 49ers offense? Will they take a step back if he’s out on Sunday?
McCaffrey is very much that important to this version of San Francisco’s offense. Shanahan has built everything around McCaffrey’s dual-threat skill set. They’ll absolutely take a step back if he doesn’t play.
That being said, they’re still a very capable offense with a ton of weapons and a head coach who can scheme a running game as well as anyone in the league. They’re still going to be tough to deal with if McCaffrey isn’t in the game, but it goes without saying that some combination of Elijah Mitchell and Jordan Mason is going to be less prolific than what the offense gets when No. 23 is in the backfield.
Outside of Trent Williams, can the 49ers offensive line be exploited?
Yes. That unit is not great, particularly on the right side. Right guard Spencer Burford and right tackle Colton McKivitz have allowed 27 of the team’s 58 pressures. Center Jake Brendel is also responsible for 11. The left side is responsible for 16 combined.
Communication has been a real problem between Burford (a second-year player) and McKivitz (a first-time starter), and there are a couple times each game where a rusher comes free off the right side. I imagine they’ll be a target of Brian Flores’ blitz-heavy scheme. And if Williams doesn’t play, then we can tack swing tackle Jaylon Moore onto that group as well. Fun!
How can the Vikings neutralize Fred Warner?
A tranquilizer dart? Hypnosis? Other forms of witchcraft? Okay, no but seriously. The best way I can come up with is to get horizontal in the run game and get bodies on and around him. He’s typically too smart to get got on a misdirection more than once, so plenty of pre-snap motion and then getting linemen to the second level after the snap to get a hand on him before he can get vertical is the best way to slow him down. Also the tranquilizer dart thing.
Kyle Shanahan struggled against Brian Flores in their last meeting, losing 43-17. Do aggressive blitzing schemes impact his offenses more than others?
There’s a little context required for that game specifically. Jimmy Garoppolo (who is particularly cheeks against the blitz) was starting on a bad ankle. It was a mess from the jump.
That said, the Giants blitzed Purdy on 33 of his 39 dropbacks when they faced off in Week 3 on Thursday Night Football. It definitely got to the second-year QB early and forced him into some dreadful decisions early in the game. He was lucky at least two throws weren’t picked off. It’s honestly a strategy worth trying again though because it took Purdy some time to figure it out. A better move might be blitzing heavy early and then taking the foot off the gas later while mixing in fake blitzes to try and get him to make a mistake.
So, I don’t think it’s a Shanahan scheme thing specifically that struggles with blitzes. Garoppolo is just terrible against them. Purdy is definitely better, even if it takes him a bit to figure it out.
Let’s get a prediction for Monday night’s game
I don’t think any of Williams, Samuel or McCaffrey are going to play and I think the 49ers offense is going to feel it when the avalanche of blitzes gets rolling. Minnesota’s offensive line is good enough to neutralize the 49ers’ pass rush (which hasn’t been very consistently good this year), and I think it’s going to turn into more of a track meet than the 49ers are capable of participating in without that trio of offensive stars.
Vikings 27, 49ers 24
The Real Forno Show
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