Previewing the final rivalry matchup between Texas and Baylor
The Texas Longhorns (3-0) face the Baylor Bears (1-2) on Saturday. It could be the final meeting between the two teams.
It’s a significant game for both teams. We have noted the importance of the game to Baylor alumni this week, but it needs to be as important to Texas given what is at stake.
The Longhorns have something to lose. The team is undefeated and ranked No. 3 in the country presently. Its goals and aspirations are all ahead of the team.
In our fall camp preview, we stated the importance of a 4-0 start in the 2023 season. I wrote the following on that topic.
“Texas can avoid letting a win slip away against Alabama or getting upset by Baylor early with a changed mindset. … (The program) shouldn’t be able to stomach another bitter upset loss to Baylor by the fourth game. It’s no longer okay for Texas to lose any of the first four games. Leadership will have to elevate the Longhorns to meet that standard.”
Now Texas’ leadership gets its opportunity to play championship-level football. It can start by performing well in the conference opener.
Let’s preview the game between Texas and Baylor.
Texas player to watch
The bigger the game gets, the more prominent a role it seems Sanders plays for this Texas squad the last two seasons. Baylor knows it needs to limit junior wide receiver Xavier Worthy. Certainly, it should be aware of what Adonai Mitchell brings opposite Worthy on the outside. This is a game you would like to see Sanders help out his quarterback in the intermediate game.
Baylor player to watch
The Baylor quarterback is throwing the football downfield. Robertson’s average target distance is 12.3 yards downfield. That’s not the greatest recipe for efficiency and explains why his completion percentage is 45.2%. His performance could have the greatest impact on Saturday’s game.
Reason for Texas confidence
Texas defense vs. Sawyer Robinson.
The Texas defense has been suffocating so far this season. Given the Longhorns’ defensive success against three opponents that were bowl eligible last season, you can expect that success to continue. Questions over Robertson’s mobility and banged up ankle could turn him into a more one-dimensional player.
Area of concern
Texas’ offensive start.
The Longhorns offense has struggled to start fast enough to separate from lesser opponents. Texas needs to bring a better effort offensively on Saturday. It needs its receivers to start catching screen passes that hit both hands. Certainly, it’s time for receivers not to drop two screen passes in the same set of downs. It needs its quarterback to be more precise in the intermediate passing game.
Baylor wins if...
Baylor wins if Texas starts slow and the Bears can control time of possession to shrink the game. It could take a couple of hits on explosive plays, and likely would need Sawyer Robertson to eclipse 50% passing on the day. Robertson has yet to complete better than 50% of his passes in any of his three appearances this season. The Baylor defense will need to dominate for the Bears to win.
Texas wins if...
Texas wins if it brings a focused effort in the game. The Longhorns’ turnover margin is plus-five so far, and starting quarterback Quinn Ewers’ zero interception season is playing a huge role. If the Texas defense continues to play well and the team can break a couple of explosive plays of its own, it could overwhelm the Baylor squad.
Game prediction
The Texas offense is due for a strong first half after struggling through the first three games. They have probably heard some of the noise about the team’s slow starts. I expect we see a more focused effort, though Baylor could keep it close and might hold the lead early. Texas separates late.
Texas 30, Baylor 16
