Preview and Predictions: Michigan football vs. Penn State
Preview
The Wolverines (6-0) are set to host the Nittany Lions (5-0) in a matchup of top-10 teams on Saturday. There is a three-way tie in the Big East division among Michigan, Penn State and Ohio State.
Saturday marks the 26th meeting between the two teams; Michigan is 15-10 all time against Penn State. The Wolverines defeated the Nittany Lions last year in Pennsylvania, 23-17.
This will be the third time both teams are ranked in the top 10 when they meet. The maize and blue are 1-1 against Penn State under that circumstance.
Last week, Michigan defeated Indiana in Bloomington, 31-10. While Penn State is coming off a bye week, that doesn’t mean the Nittany Lions have any sort of advantage. Under James Franklin, Penn State has a 2-5 record in the game played right after the bye.
Let’s dig deeper into the matchups that will take place on the field this Saturday.
Penn State offense vs. Michigan defense
Scoring offense: Penn State 37th (34.4 points per game)
Scoring defense: Michigan 5th (11.3 points per game allowed)
Rushing offense: Penn State 33rd (192.6 yards per game)
Rushing defense: Michigan 7th (81.6 yards per game allowed)
Passing offense: Penn State 60th (251 yards per game)
Passing defense: Michigan 11th (165.3 yards per game allowed)
The Nittany Lions trot out sixth-year senior Sean Clifford at the quarterback position. Clifford has accumulated 1,030 yards (62%), nine touchdowns, and two interceptions through five games. He is averaging 206 yards per game. True freshman Drew Allar has seen game action in all four out of five games this year. Allar has 163 yards through the air and two touchdowns.
Penn State relies on the run game to get its offense moving. The Nittany Lions have two freshmen that are the lead running backs. Nicholas Singleton has 463 yards on 63 carries and five touchdowns. He is also second in the Big Ten averaging 7.3 yards per carry. The other freshman you will see is Kaytron Allen, who has 57 carries for 303 yards (5.3 yards per carry) and three touchdowns.
When the run game is working, Sean Clifford is much more accurate since the Nittany Lions can utilize the play-action pass. According to Pro Football Focus, when Clifford throws the ball out of play-action then he completes 71% of his throws, but he completes a meager 57% when he drops back to pass.
The Nittany Lions have some dangerous threats in the receiving game for Clifford to work with. Parker Washington leads the team with 20 catches for 285 yards, but he has been held to zero touchdown receptions. Mitchell Tinsley, a transfer out of Western Kentucky, has 19 catches for 225 yards and three scores. Penn State, like Michigan, has used the tight end this season. Brenton Strange is the Nittany Lions’ receiving touchdowns leader. He has 15 receptions for 231 yards and four touchdowns.
The PSU offensive line has allowed seven sacks through its first five games. PFF ranks the Nittany Lions’ O-line as the 57th-best pass-blocking team and Pro Football Focus gives them a 68.0 grade.
The Michigan defense has been excellent as of late getting home on the opposing quarterback. Michigan has racked in 22 sacks during the course of the season and it averages over three sacks per game. Mike Morris has really emerged as a threat at the edge position for the Wolverines this season. He is second in the Big Ten with five sacks.
Michigan offense vs. Penn State defense
Scoring offense: Michigan 7th (43 points per game)
Scoring defense: Penn State 13th (14.8 points per game allowed)
Rushing offense: Michigan 20th (212.3 yards per game)
Rushing defense: Penn State 5th (79.8 yards per game allowed)
Passing offense: Michigan 69th (246.3 yards per game)
Passing defense: Penn State 102nd (262 yards per game allowed)
Total offense: Michigan 29th (458.7 yards per game)
Total defense: Penn State 38th (341.8 yards per game allowed)
J.J. McCarthy continues to excel for Michigan. He leads the nation completing 78.3% of his passes. The sophomore has 1,152 yards, nine passing scores and one interception in the six games he has played.
It’s hard not to note he will be going up against the 102nd-ranked pass defense. But the Nittany Lions do have some really good players in the secondary. Safety Ji’Ayir Brown has two interceptions, and Joey Porter Jr. is another name to keep an eye on Saturday.
The Wolverines look to pound the rock early and often on Saturday — even against one of the top run defenses in football. Blake Corum, if he wasn’t already, has emerged as one of the top backs in college football. He has 735 yards on 118 carries for an average of 6.2 yards per carry. The junior back is second in all of football with 11 rushing touchdowns.
Michigan will hope to get Donovan Edwards involved. Edwards has been effective as a runner and a pass catcher out of the backfield or lined up in the slot.
The Wolverines hope to get Roman Wilson back for Saturday, but if he misses his second straight game, Michigan has plenty of playmakers for its five-star quarterback. Ronnie Bell and Luke Schoonmaker are McCarthy’s go-to guys. Bell leads the team with 30 receptions for 390 yards and a score. Schoonmaker is second with 23 catches for 229 yards and two scores.
Both Roman Wilson and Cornelius Johnson lead the team with three receiving touchdowns each.
One key stat to know about Penn State’s defense is it has allowed six touchdowns in the red zone this season. The opposing teams have had 15 opportunities inside the Nittany Lions’ 20-yard line in five games.
A few names to keep an eye on on the Nittany Lions’ defense:
Linebacker Abdul Carter: 18 tackles and one sack
Defensive tackle PJ Mustipher: 16 tackles and one QB hurry
Edge Dani Dennis-Sutton: Five tackles and three sacks
Safety Zakee Wheatley: Two interceptions
The game can be seen on Fox at noon EDT. See the next page for our staff predictions
STAFF PREDICTIONS
Wolverines Wire staff writers Isaiah Hole and Trent Knoop share their thoughts on the game, two soft predictions, one bold prediction and the final score.
Isaiah Hole:
What do we really know about either team going into this one? For all of the talk of Michigan’s cupcake schedule to begin the year, the Wolverines did what they were supposed to do in all three games. Penn State mostly did, but has had closer than expected games against Central Michigan and Northwestern, which doesn’t give me a ton of confidence in the Nittany Lions. However, though Auburn may be about as daunting as Indiana this year, PSU also went down and handled business in a daunting environment.
Both teams feature stellar run defenses, with Michigan’s middle being equivalent to P.J. Mustipher — who the Wolverines didn’t see in Happy Valley last year. The Penn State pass defense is among the country’s worst, but that’s due to teams throwing more on them due to an inability to get the run game going. J.J. McCarthy has been more consistent thus far than Sean Clifford, who has been hit or miss as usual. The PSU offensive line seems improved and it’ll be relying on two freshman running backs, who will be in, again, a daunting environment, and certainly playing against the best defense they’ve seen all year.
Also, I feel like Michigan’s had more individual tests — Maryland’s offense and Iowa’s defense — than Penn State has had. However, I could see this game going either way for either team. I do think Michigan is the better team, but it will all come down to who executes better on Saturday.
-Soft predictions
Penn State leads going into halftime, but Michigan dominates the second half
The Michigan defense allows about 100 yards rushing to the Nittany Lions
-Bold prediction
Michigan’s offense looks completely different, and J.J. McCarthy again hits 300 yards
-Final score prediction
Michigan 24, Penn State 17
Trent Knoop:
This game comes down to two things for me. First, which team runs the ball better? These two teams are similar in the fact that they both want to pound the rock and let their passing games work off the run game. The Nittany Lions rely on two freshmen, and Michigan has mostly relied on Blake Corum to lead the team,. But Donovan Edwards is capable of giving Corum a breather.
Secondly, which quarterback can put his respective team on his back if the run game isn’t working? Both Michigan and Penn State are really good against the run this season, but the Nittany Lions are one of the worst against the pass whereas Michigan has been mostly good against the pass.
If you look at talent and potential, Michigan should win this game, but if the Wolverines start turning the ball over, then Penn State can easily win this game.
-Soft predictions
Both tight ends lead their respective team in receptions
Michigan gets three or more sacks
-Bold prediction
Blake Corum runs for 120 yards
Final score prediction
Michigan 27, Penn State 17
List
Michigan vs. Penn State: Three keys to a Michigan football victory
