Preview and Predictions: Michigan football vs. Nebraska
The Michigan Wolverines (9-0) will take the field against the Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-6) on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. EST.
The maize and blue have a small lead against the Huskers in the series. Michigan leads Nebraska 6-4-1 all-time.
The Wolverines are ranked No. 3 in the College Football Playoff rankings, and they are coming off a 52-17 victory against Rutgers last weekend. Meanwhile, the Cornhuskers have lost three straight games.
Nebraska fired Scott Frost after three games this season and Mickey Joseph took over as the interim head coach for the remainder of the season. The former Nebraska star lasted in Lincoln for four full seasons and three games.
The Wolverines are big favorites in this matchup in Ann Arbor — nearly 30-point favorites. But games are played for a reason, and the Wolverines will need to show up and compete to remain undefeated on Saturday.
Here is our full preview and staff predictions on what we think the results will be.
By the numbers: Stat comparisons
Photo: Isaiah Hole
Scoring offense:
Michigan 5th (42.2 points per game)
Nebraska 85th (25.6 points per game)
Scoring defense:
Michigan 3rd (12.1 points allowed per game)
Nebraska 91st (29.4 points allowed per game)
Passing offense:
Michigan 93rd (215.7 yards per game)
Nebraska 60th (243.9 yards per game)
Passing defense:
Michigan 9th (170 yards allowed per game)
Nebraska 103rd (258.1 yards allowed per game)
Rushing offense:
Michigan 4th (250 yards per game)
Nebraska 75th (143.2 yards per game)
Rushing defense:
Michigan 1st (72.4 yards allowed per game)
Nebraska 108th (182.8 yards allowed per game)
Total offense:
Michigan 22nd (465.7 yards per game)
Nebraska 73rd (387.1 yards per game)
Total defense:
Michigan 2nd (242.4 yards allowed per game)
Nebraska 113th (441 yards allowed per game)
Nebraska offense vs. Michigan defense
Dylan Widger-USA TODAY Sports
It was announced on Thursday that Nebraska starting quarterback Casey Thompson would miss his second straight game this weekend. The Cornhuskers will start either Chubba Purdy or Logan Smothers. Neither has been very good this season.
Purdy, a former Florida State transfer, earned the nod last weekend against Minnesota, but he was pulled in favor of Smothers. Purdy completed six-of-16 passes for 41 yards and one interception. Smothers didn’t do much better against the Gophers. Smothers completed 50% of his passes and threw for 80 yards.
As of Thursday night, we don’t know who is going to start for the Cornhuskers, but we expect both quarterbacks to see action. Purdy is more of a thrower while Smothers has a running element to his game. For the season, Purdy has completed 44% of his passes with zero touchdowns and three interceptions. Smothers has only thrown one other pass outside of the Minnesota game last week.
Nebraska will run an up-tempo offense regardless of which quarterback suits up. The Cornhuskers control the ball for just over 26 minutes a game and they could be in for a long day if they can’t keep the chains moving.
Running back Anthony Grant has been a focal point of the Nebraska offense. Grant leads the team gaining 858 yards this season. He averages nearly five yards per carry, and he has rushed for six scores. According to Pro Football Focus, Grant does most of his damage when he runs left of the left tackle. He averages 6.2 yards per carry and he has scored once when running in that direction.
The Huskers have a few players at receiver that can do damage, but LSU transfer Trey Palmer is their star. Palmer has been one of the better receivers in the entire Big Ten. He has recorded 53 receptions for 819 yards and five scores. Palmer has been Thompson’s deep ball target this season. He has caught 10 passes for 402 yards and all five touchdowns have come on targets more than 20 yards down the field.
Junior receiver Marcus Washington is second on the team with 367 yards receiving and no touchdowns. Tight end Travis Vokolek is third on the team with 18 receptions, and he also has 220 yards and two touchdowns.
A big weakness of the Nebraska offense is its offensive line. The Cornhuskers have allowed 26 sacks this season and the O-line grades very poorly by PFF. According to PFF, the starting O-line’s pass blocking grades are 64.1, 60.5, 56.8, 24.4 and 13.2. The starting five have combined to allow nine sacks this season.
The Wolverines lead the Big Ten in sacks (29). Mike Morris is second in the conference with 7.5 sacks, and this could be a game where he sees his stats soar.
Michigan also has a chance to gain some turnovers. The Huskers have turned the ball over 18 times this season, which is the second most in the Big Ten behind Northwestern. The Wolverines just forced three turnovers last weekend against Rutgers.
Michigan offense vs. Nebraska defense
Photo: Isaiah Hole
J.J. McCarthy is no longer the nation’s most accurate thrower, statistically. But he is still No. 6, completing 70.9% of his passes. The sophomore quarterback has thrown 12 touchdowns compared to two interceptions this season. The only knock on the former five-star quarterback has been his inability to hit the deep ball. On throws from zero-to-nine yards, McCarthy is completing 87.5% of his passes. When he throws between 10-to-19 yards he completes 59.5% of his throws, and when McCarthy attempts throws for more than 20 yards down the field he is completing 39.3% of his passes.
But what truly keeps Michigan rolling is its ability to run the ball. McCarthy has run for over 200 yards this season on the ground to keep the chains moving, but the Wolverines have a Heisman hopeful on their roster. Blake Corum has been nothing short of fantastic this year and he is tied for first with 16 rushing scores. He is seventh in the country averaging 131.8 yards per game. Corum does most of his damage on the edges. Between running on the left side of the line and the right side, Corum has carried the ball 82 times for 589 yards and 10 touchdowns. The junior back also has 665 yards after contact through nine games.
Sophomore Donovan Edwards has looked the part this season, too. Edwards has run for 458 yards and four scores. The former five-star has gained 6.7 yards per carry and he adds a whole new element to the Michigan offense. He has the ability to make catches out of the backfield and it has shown this season. Edwards has caught 14 passes for 179 yards and he has scored twice through the air.
The Wolverines have plenty of targets for McCarthy to air the ball out. Ronnie Bell has been the No. 1 target this season. He has 525 yards on 41 catches but only one touchdown. Luke Schoonmaker has really stepped up in the absence of Erick All. The starting tight end has been a good safety net for Michigan in the passing game. Schoonmaker is second on the team catching 30 receptions for 315 yards and two scores. Cornelius Johnson leads the team with four receiving touchdowns and Roman Wilson is right behind him with three.
The Michigan offensive line has had its share of injuries this season but the Wolverines have weathered that storm well. Pro Football Focus has Michigan ranked inside the top 25 in both pass blocking and run blocking. PFF ranks the Wolverines 18th (run blocking) and 24th (pass blocking). The Wolverines have allowed 10 sacks on the season, and they are one of the better teams at keeping the quarterback upright.
The Cornhuskers are ranked 94th in the country, sacking the opposing quarterback 15 times this season. Nebraska has nine players that have recorded a sack. Garrett Nelson leads the team with 4.5 sacks. Nelson also leads the team with 7.5 tackles for loss.
Nebraska has intercepted the ball seven times this season. Marques Buford Jr. and Malcolm Hartzog lead the team with two each.
The Cornhuskers’ red-zone defense is ranked 101st in the country. Nebraska has allowed teams to score 87.8% of the time they reach the red zone. Teams score touchdowns nearly 64% of the time in the red zone.
Staff predictions
Wolverines Wire staff writers Isaiah Hole and Trent Knoop share their thoughts on the game, two soft predictions, one bold prediction and the final score.
Isaiah Hole:
Michigan 41, Nebraska 10
Trent Knoop:
Usually up-tempo teams give Michigan fits, especially if the opposing quarterback can run the ball. That is exactly what Casey Thompson can do, but the Cornhuskers are without their starter. Both of the backups, Purdy and Smothers, are pretty average at best. Neither seemed like they could get the job done last weekend against Minnesota, and the Wolverines are better than the Gophers.
I think the Michigan defense shuts down the Cornhuskers’ passing game, and I don’t look for Anthony Grant to do much on the ground against a really stout run defense.
Offensively, Michigan should be able to attack Nebraska however it wants. The Cornhuskers rank toward the bottom in every defensive category. The Wolverines, I’m sure, will want to run the ball, and Blake Corum could be in story for another big day.
-Soft predictions
Blake Corum runs for 120-plus yards
Michigan forces two turnovers
-Bold prediction
J.J. McCarthy completes three pass attempts of more than 20 yards
Final score prediction
Michigan 41, Nebraska 10
