My preseason predictions look great now, but then Texas did make me look good, too | Bohls
I saw it coming.
Seriously.
It was as clear as the (growing) nose on Jim Harbaugh’s face.
The combination of a fully stocked, veteran-laden Longhorns roster with speed and athleticism and depth and a belief in Steve Sarkisian’s ability to rally his team and call the right plays (save for a few fourth downs) convinced me this team was for real in August.
And I haven’t been able to say that in awhile. Hey, given the fact Texas was 5-7 just two years ago, it was hardly a given that it was of championship caliber.
So here were my preseason predictions from summer, which published under the headline "Yeah, I'm going all-in on these CFP-bound Longhorns this year":
On the season: Yep, I'm patting myself on the back
1. “It says right here that Texas will win the Big 12 for the first time since 2009 and will reach the College Football Playoff for the first time ever. Cue the confetti.”
Lots of confetti. The Longhorns, in fact, did win their first Big 12 title in 14 years and did earn their first spot in the CFP.
2. “The Longhorns will lose one game and wind up 11-1 in the regular season.”
Got that right, too. They did finish at 11-1 in the regular season. Who would have guessed?
3. “Texas will beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa. I see the loss coming at TCU unless Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark has more pull than we think when it comes to the final Big 12 regular-season game between Texas Tech and the lame-duck Longhorns. I’ll check which side Iowa State is betting on.”
Nail, meet head. Texas did take down mighty Alabama on the road by 10 points. I was wrong about the loss to TCU although, had Quinn Ewers not connected with Adonai Mitchell on that improbable third-and-long, the Horned Frogs just might have pulled off the upset.
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4. “Still, it looks to be a banner year for Texas, which third-year coach Steve Sarkisian promises will ‘embrace the hate’ and gear up for big battles every week.”
Was there hate? Does a bear spit in the woods? The Longhorns got their share of vitriol on a weekly basis but also a lot of payback in redemptive wins over Alabama, Kansas State, TCU and Texas Tech.
On the roster: it all started with the defensive line
5. “Texas' best three positions are wide receiver/tight end, the secondary and the defensive line.”
Got two right. Sorry about overrating the secondary. I’d say the premier positions were defensive line and wide receiver/tight end. The pass defense? Not so much, partly because of recurring injuries to top cornerback Ryan Watts and safety Jalen Catalon, whom we barely saw. Texas ranks 95th in passing yards allowed. That said, let’s give a shoutout to nickel back Jahdae Barron, who had a stellar season.
6. “The biggest question marks revolve around quarterback consistency and accuracy, the maturation of the offensive line as a blocking force, the second linebacker spot, and Sarkisian’s own play-calling, especially in the fourth quarter, which has been an Achilles' heel for him.”
On Sark and Ewers: coach and quarterback were on the ball
I guess Ewers answered questions about his performance just fine. He was outstanding.
The offensive line, while still not that stout at run-blocking, excelled at protecting the quarterbacks but did give up 26 sacks.
David Gbenda was a more than pleasant surprise at outside linebacker to go with standout Jaylan Ford.
Sarkisian downright showed off with his play-calling. Two trick plays against Oklahoma State? Did you see the gadget touchdown passes to Byron Murphy II and T’Vondre Sweat? Those are defensive tackles, by the way.
More: On Second Thought: ESPN’s Dusty Dvoracek on how Texas football can win the Sugar Bowl
7. “Yes, this is a make-or-break year for Quinn Ewers as well as for Sarkisian, but honestly there’s more pressure on the quarterback. ... I’m saying Ewers will stay healthy all year and never miss a start. And he will look more like the quarterback we saw against Alabama (for a quarter) and Oklahoma. ... With so many weapons at his disposal, he will become only the ninth quarterback in school history to throw for more than 3,000 yards (3,485) with 28 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Ewers will complete 64% of his passes. He will have five games with more than 300 yards to come within one of Colt McCoy’s six in 2008. He will have four touchdown passes longer than 60 yards."
Ewers was the BMOC. OK, not as big as T-Sweat. But the quarterback delivered consistently. He completed 70.7% of his throws, a big upgrade over last year. He missed two games after getting hurt late against Houston. Ewers did top 3,000, passing for 3,161 yards with 21 touchdowns and six interceptions. He had four games with 300 yards and had 293 yards versus Baylor. His longest touchdown pass was from 44 yards, something he did three times.
On the offense: the receivers rose
8. “(Maalik) Murphy will win the No. 2 job and will play in five games. He’ll pass for 391 yards and three scores and run for two touchdowns. (Arch) Manning will play in two games and complete just four passes all year but will look strong running.”
Magic Murphy did win the backup job and played in seven games. He threw for 477 yards and exactly three scores but was reluctant to run and never scored on the ground. Manning did trot onto the field to the biggest ovation for a third-string quarterback in school history. He did play in only two games and completed only two passes, one more than Xavier Worthy, Savion Red and even holder Ryan Sanborn completed.
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9. “The receiving corps is stacked, ranking in the top three in the nation alongside those at Ohio State and Texas A&M.”
I’d say that was accurate with Worthy, Mitchell and Jordan Whittington right up there with LSU’s Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. and Washington’s Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk.
10. “Now a junior, Xavier Worthy will be the Xavier Worthy of his freshman year, not his sophomore year. Put him down for 11 touchdowns and 74 receptions for 923 yards. He'll also score on a punt return. He’ll have to share the fun, however. Adonai Mitchell will complement him well and catch 52 balls for 764 yards and five scores and have at least one one-handed catch. Isaiah Neyor will add 24 catches for 293 yards and two touchdowns.”
The X-man fell a little short in the end zone department, scoring five times. I was pretty close otherwise as he had 73 catches for 969 yards, if you count the Big 12 championship game. And he did score on a 74-yard punt return against BYU and was voted second-team All-American. Mitchell deserves huge kudos with 51 receptions for 813 yards and 10 touchdowns and had just one drop. Neyor had just one catch for 14 yards.
11. “Jordan Whittington will do a lot of the dirty work out of the slot and is Texas’ best blocking wide receiver. But he’ll still grab 22 passes for 198 and two touchdowns.”
Whittington, one of the team’s most valuable players, did so much dirty work he should have a laundry NIL deal. Remember his critical rundown and touchdown/strip in the Kansas State game. As the slot back, he had 38 catches for 435 yards and one score.
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12. “Freshman Johntay Cook II will catch at least one bomb of more than 50 yards for a touchdown.”
Nope. No scores, but he did catch a 51-yard pass.
13. “Tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders will electrify at times and finish with 46 balls for 568 yards and six scores. He’ll finish second behind Georgia's Brock Bowers among the best tight ends in America.”
Sanders saved his best for the last. He finished with 39 catches for 607 yards and a pair of scores.
On the running game: Hello, Jonathon Brooks
14. “Jonathon Brooks will be the starting tailback against Rice, but true freshman CJ Baxter will eventually win the job in the second half of the season. Brooks will wind up with 683 yards and six touchdowns while Baxter, as the more dynamic back, steps off 781 yards and gets into the end zone eight times. Brooks will catch 16 passes, two for touchdowns.”
Baxter started the opener and eventually won the job by default when Brooks tore up a knee. But Brooks was sensational and represented no drop-off from Bijan Robinson. He went for 1,139 yards and 10 touchdowns and was having an All-American season until getting hurt in Fort Worth. Baxter looked explosive, got dinged up, but wound up with 595 and four scores. Brooks hauled in 25 passes, one for a touchdown.
15. “Keilan Robinson, his understudy, will dash for a pair of touchdowns but also score on a kick return. He also will block a punt and a field goal.”
The Alabama transfer dashed for three touchdowns and did score on a kick return, a spectacular, 95-yard runback in an electric play against Texas Tech on the opening play of the second half. He didn’t block a kick. But Kitan Crawford did for a touchdown against OU.
16. "As many as eight players will start on the offensive line, and the sacks they allow will drop from 19 to 15."
Six started, and they gave up 26 sacks. That included five to Oklahoma and four to Iowa State.
17. "Defensive end Barryn Sorrell will lead the defensive line with nine sacks while Ethan Burke complements him with five. Linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. will line up at edge rusher, contribute three sacks and cause a fumble."
No Longhorn set himself apart in this category as Sorrell had just four sacks despite higher expectations. Burke led the team with 5½ sacks while the true frosh Hill had five.
On the defense: Ford, Sweat led the way
18. "Defensive tackle Alfred Collins, the Bastrop product who has teased fans for two years, has been the talk of training camp. He’ll finally deliver on that promise and be a big cog in the middle. ... Byron Murphy II will replace Keondre Coburn at nose tackle but will get a lot of help inside from T’Vondre Sweat, Vernon Broughton, redshirt freshman Jaray Bledsoe and sophomore Justice Finkley as well as Minnesota transfer Trill Carter. The line will be stout."
Boy was the line stout. Arguably the best position on the team, the defensive line shined. Yeah, I’d say Murphy got a whole heckuva lot of help from Mr. Sweat, this year’s Outland Trophy winner.
More: Three observations and a quote from No. 10 Texas' 80-68 win over No. 11 UConn
19. "Linebacker Jaylan Ford will lead the team in tackles for the second year in a row and reach 126 stops to go with five sacks, two picks and a dozen tackles for loss."
Ford did lead the team in tackles again, but with only 91 stops. He did have two interceptions and 10½ tackles for losses, but just one sack.
20. "Cornerback Ryan Watts will get a sack in the Alabama game (a year late) and flourish as Pete Kwiatkowski’s lockdown defender. He also will have one of Texas’ two pick sixes on the season. Sophomore Terrance Brooks and Wake Forest transfer Gavin Holmes will rotate at field corner."
Watts was about the only Horn without a sack in that game. Hill led with two while Sweat, Burke and the very underrated Gbenda each had one.
21. "In a loaded secondary, Jerrin Thompson will become the standout team leader on defense. He will have 92 tackles and recover two fumbles with two interceptions, one for a score. Safety Jalen Catalon will make the hit of the year, but injuries will curtail his playing time.”
Thompson was up and down and finished with just 35 tackles, but he did register three picks and led the secondary with seven pass breakups. Catalon did unleash a few big hits, especially against Kansas but couldn’t say healthy.
22. "Jahdae Barron will continue to be a dynamic force. He will cause two fumbles and recover two more as Texas ups its game big time in turnover margin, improving from a plus-2 to a plus-10."
Barron was big-time and didn’t get enough credit on the all-star teams. He was third on the team in tackles with 56 and had one fumble recovery and one interception. … Texas didn’t quite get to plus-10, but its plus-7 ratio was good for 26th nationally.
On the accolades: There were plenty
23. "Bert Auburn will build on his breakout season last year and boot 18 of 22 field goals, with two game-winners — one against Alabama — and two from longer than 50 yards."
Talk about Mr. Reliable. The sophomore was remarkable in his second season, drilling 19 consecutive field goals until his miss from 44 yards in the Big 12 championship. He hit on 28 of 34, connected on two of three tries against the Crimson Tide and did make two from beyond 50 yards.
24. "Punter Ryan Sanborn won’t have a kick blocked all year."
None of his 35 punts were blocked.
25. "Making the All-America first team will be left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr., Worthy and Watts. Ford and Sanders will make the second team. All-Big 12 honors will go to those five players along with Sorrell and Thompson. Cook will earn Big 12 newcomer of the year. Sarkisian will win Big 12 coach of the year, and Texas will give him an extension."
Worthy was All-American as a punt returner on the FWAA team, but Banks and Watts didn’t make the cut. Sanders had enough votes to be third-team All-American. Seven Horns made first-team All-Big 12: Worthy, Sanders, Banks, Auburn, Murphy, Sweat and Ford. Mitchell earned newcomer of the year. Somehow Mike Gundy was named coach of the year. Not sure how. Sark’s extension is coming.
26. "Juniors Ewers, Worthy and Sanders all will turn pro."
None has declared, but you can expect the two receivers to go and Ewers to stay unless he blows up in the playoffs.
27. "The Longhorns will lose to Georgia in the first round of the CFP as Uga gets his revenge."
Texas did reach the CFP for the first time ever, but will face Washington in the first round. So sue me.
"This stuff is way, way out on a limb."
The limb hasn’t been sawed off.
CFP national semifinals
Jan. 1, ESPN: No. 4 Alabama (12-1) vs. No. 1 Michigan (13-0), 4 p.m.; No. 3 Texas (12-1) vs. No. 2 Washington (13-0), 7:45 p.m.
This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: Texas football team left lasting memories in final Big 12 chase
