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Predicting the next round of college football expansion for the ACC, Big Ten and Big 12…and Notre Dame

kristian dyer
·8 min read
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The Big Ten is expanding as is the Big 12. The SEC seems happy to not expand. The ACC might be the next conference to be plundered when it is all said and done. Welcome, to conference expansion.

And while the Big Ten recently expanded with the addition of Oregon and Washington (the Big 12 did too), there is likely only going to be more conference expansion. Why? Conferences are going to target the best programs in the best media markets to further enhance their portfolios for the next round of television deals.

So what is next in the world of conference expansion? And who ends up where? Scroll down and check out some predictions for what happens to Notre Dame and UConn and the rest when it comes to conference expansion!

Notre Dame ends up where in conference expansion and realignment?

What’s the word on the street? This one is a bit obvious as Notre Dame is the program that every conference wants and dreams of adding. The Fighting Irish are the biggest brand in college sports and one of the biggest brands in global sports.

Notre Dame technically isn’t a Power Five program because they are independent and not in a conference. And yet they are a Power Five program because they are considered on the same level as the schools from those five conferences.

For any conference, adding them would be a huge, national fan base that would enhance the next television deal.

Where does Notre Dame end up? The correct answer is that no market makes sense and Notre Dame will remain independent. But if Notre Dame had to make a move to a conference, the Big Ten makes the most sense.

Geographically and culturally, Notre Dame fits in the Big Ten. The ACC makes some sense given the current connection to the conference.

But truthfully, the Big Ten aligns best for Notre Dame for all the reasons above and the revenue brought in by the conference, which is the most in college football.

UConn...Big 12? ACC?

What’s the word on the street? UConn is a powerhouse on the basketball courts and has the potential to be a strong program on the football side (where it all really matters for conference expansion talk).

UConn isn’t in the largest media market, but they are strongly positioned between New York and New England. Keep in mind that UConn currently has a television deal with SNY, giving them a strong reach into New York and New Jersey.

For a conference looking to upgrade basketball and other sports (baseball is perenially ranked), this could be a goof fit. Factor in their proximity when it comes to media markets and this is a better pitch than many might originally think.

For football, UConn is independent. For all other sports, they are in the Big East.

Where does UConn end up? At the end of the day, probably the ACC although it is puzzling that the Big 12 isn’t after the Huskies harder (reports say that the Big 12 won’t add UConn after they landed four new members this month).

Not an AAU member, UConn doesn’t make sense right now for the Big Ten. But were UConn to become an AAU institution, then the Big Ten would be an intriguing landing spot for the school.

UConn adds the New England market and strengthens ties to New York City. Some conference will see and understand this at some point.

South Florida...wait, did he say South Florida?

What’s the word on the street? USF stinks in football (without a winning season since 2018), but they play in the No. 13 media market in the nation (Tampa Bay/St. Petersburg). Some conference, when trying to grab the Monopoly pieces here, is going to gamble on this location.

Where does USF end up? South Florida did just become an AAU member…but this doesn’t feel like a Big Ten move. The Big 12 just added UCF…would the Tampa market be appealing here? The ACC already/currently has two Florida programs so adding a third seems redundant.

And since the ACC made a resolution this year to be more dundant, it doesn’t seem like USF is a fit here.

Were Miami to leave the ACC, then a swoop for USF would tie up south Florida.

Bold prediction: Miami is the first move in the next round of conference expansion

What’s the word on the street? Miami is a national brand and is in a top 15 media market. Their football program, a bit down in recent years, still registers as one of the biggest fanbases in college football.

Men’s basketball was one of the best programs in the nation last year. Olympic sports are strong. And whatever conference gets Miami has a beachhead to the deepest recruiting turf in the nation.

Where does Miami end up? With the ACC’s television deal now being dwarfed by the SEC and the Big Ten, Miami will want out. Miami needs out.

Given their new AAU membership, Miami is a perfect fit for the Big Ten. Bringing a top 15 media market, Miami makes sense to the Big Ten.

It’s the next major move in all of this. Write it down.

(In pencil of course).

San Diego State

What’s the word on the street? Where is San Diego State heading right now? After resigning from the Mountain West Conference, San Diego State is kinda, sorta heading to the Pac-12. But does the Pac-12 even exist right now?

San Diego State is relatively strong in football and very strong in men’s basketball. They boast a new football stadium and one of the strongest media markets in the nation.

This is a legitimately strong athletic program in a great city. Even though football is driving this conference expansion bus, men’s basketball making the NCAA Tournament three straight years is hard to ignore.

Where does San Diego State end up? Not an AAU member, San Diego State likely won’t land with the Big Ten. Their best fit right now would be the Big 12, who are shrewdly adding solid programs and media markets.

Could the ACC work? Cal and Stanford seem the most likely of the Pac-12 schools to land with the ACC. A revived Pac-12 makes the most sense, but with each day, that is looking less and less likely.

Prediction? San Diego State ends up back in the Mountain West or in some watered down version of the Pac-whatever.

The rest of the ACC

 

What’s the word on the street? The options may not be as enticing for some of the ACC’s programs as one might think. Consider these following five schools:

  • Boston College – Academically fits in the Big Ten but lacks AAU membership. Brings the New England market which is enticing.

  • Clemson – Not an AAU member so the Big Ten is out. The SEC already has South Carolina so why add another program that doesn’t expand the conference’s geography?

  • Florida State – Like Clemson, not an AAU school. Like Clemson, doesn’t help the SEC’s geography (already has Florida).

  • Pittsburgh – Not an AAU program (sensing a trend here?). The Big Ten isn’t a landing spot as they already have Penn State to tie down that media market.

  • Syracuse – Was once an AAU member but isn’t anymore. An attractive option because Syracuse would enhance the Big Ten market in terms of ratings (New York City already exists with Rutgers but would add Buffalo and Syracuse markets).

Would any of these schools jump to the Big 12? Boston College in the Big 12 doesn’t make sense for instance, right? And the Big Ten isn’t calling for BC (no AAU).

If the SEC isn’t expanding at this time, then it is hard to see any of these programs moving from the ACC right now.

Story originally appeared on Rutgers Wire