Predicting the initial College Football Rankings for 2021
It’s finally here. We can stop all the conjecture and hand-ringing (well, sort of) with the traditional college football polls like the USA TODAY Sports AFCA Coaches and the Associated Press because the College Football Playoff committee will release the first edition of the 2021 CFP rankings Tuesday night.
So, instead of trying to figure out how the committee views all the teams in the running during such a chaotic year, we’ll finally get a sense of what’s more important than other factors. It’s a slam-dunk that Georgia will be No. 1, but what happens behind the Bulldogs is anyone’s guess.
How does the committee view an undefeated Power Five school Cincinnati, what about the one-loss teams like Alabama and Ohio State? How will Oregon be viewed because of the win over the Buckeyes in Columbus? Where is Michigan State?
We’ll all find out Tuesday night.
But we’re not waiting. We do our best each week to try and figure it all out based on past history and the criteria the CFP committee is supposed to be following, but as we’ve seen in past years, that criteria seems to change based more on opinion and the eye test more than anything else.
So, here we go, our best guess at what the initial College Football Playoff Rankings might look like when unveiled on a television or streaming device near you on Tuesday evening.
Fresno State (7-2)
Oct 30, 2021; Carson, California, USA; Fresno State Bulldogs quarterback Jake Haener (9) throws the ball against the San Diego State Aztecs in the second half at Dignity Health Sports Park. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Why the ranking?
Fresno State sneaks in for a couple of reasons. First, it played a top ten Oregon team extremely tough and we know how much the CFP committee loves quality losses. Secondly, it sits at 7-2 and has a quality win over San Diego State.
Pittsburgh Panthers (6-2)
Nov 21, 2020; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Panthers defensive lineman Deslin Alexandre (5) and defensive lineman Rashad Weaver (17) and wide receiver Will Gipson (14) celebrate after defeating the Virginia Tech Hokies at Heinz Field. Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Why the ranking?
Pitt would have been higher up the rankings if it could have taken care of business last weekend. Unfortunately, all of its wins have come against ACC teams, and there isn’t a ranked team in the bunch other than maybe the Panthers.
SMU (7-1)
SMU football players take the field to jetting flames at the north end of Ford Stadium in Dallas. Sept 4, 2021, Credit: USA TODAY Sports
Why the ranking?
SMU finally lost a game last weekend, but it was a good one at Houston. Aside from that, the Mustangs have looked pretty good in running out to seven unbeaten games to start the year.
Coastal Carolina (7-1)
Oct 28, 2021; Conway, South Carolina, USA; Coastal Carolina Chanticleers wide receiver Jaivon Heiligh (6) runs with the ball ahead of Troy Trojans safety TJ Harris (8) during the first half at Brooks Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Yeazell-USA TODAY Sports
Why the ranking?
There really isn’t a quality win in there anywhere, but the Chanticleers have looked absolutely dominant aside from the one-loss at Appalachian State by three points. Coastal became a media darling last season and it’ll still get some love because of that and the record.
Penn State Nittany Lions (5-3)
Penn State fans cheer as their players leave the field after warmups before Saturday’s NCAA Division I football game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium in Columbus on October 30, 2021. Credit: USA TODAY Sports
Why the ranking?
Sure, Penn State now has three losses on the season, but the committee is supposed to take into account injuries. There’s a really solid chance that if quarterback Sean Clifford were not injured, that the only loss Penn State would have right now is the one we just watched against Ohio State.
Houston Cougars (7-1)
Oct 30, 2021; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Cougars wide receiver KeSean Carter (20) celebrates after scoring a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Southern Methodist Mustangs at TDECU Stadium. Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Why the ranking?
After losing the first game of the year to Texas Tech, Houston has now rattled off seven straight wins and looked good in doing so, the last of which against an SMU team we believe will also be ranked.
UTSA Roadrunners (8-0)
Oct. 21, 2017; San Antonio, TX, USA; UTSA Roadrunners helmet on the turf after winning 20-7 against the Rice Owls. Credit: John Gutierrez-USA TODAY Sports
Why the ranking?
I’d like to think the CFP committee would put an undefeated UTSA team that has steamrolled most opponents higher up the list, but it has shown that a Group of Five team that doesn’t play much of anyone doesn’t really get the benefit of the doubt.
BYU Cougars (7-2)
Oct 30, 2021; Provo, Utah, USA; Brigham Young Cougars running back Tyler Allgeier (25) runs in for a fourth-quarter touchdown against the Virginia Cavaliers at LaVell Edwards Stadium. Credit: Jeffrey Swinger-USA TODAY Sports
Why the ranking?
BYU has five wins over five Power Five teams and that’s going to carry a lot of weight with the committee. There was a two-game losing streak hiccup in there, but they were quality losses against Boise State, and at Baylor.
Kentucky Wildcats (6-2)
Oct 27, 2018; Columbia, MO, USA; A general view of a Kentucky Wildcats helmet during the game against the Missouri Tigers at Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field. Kentucky won 15-14. Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Why the ranking?
The Wildcats have just two losses, one to Georgia, and one to Mississippi State. Both will be looked fondly upon by the CFP committee because it tends to love the SEC even though there’s not really a statement win in there anywhere.
Iowa Hawkeyes (6-2)
Iowa junior center Tyler Linderbaum reacts after the Hawkeyes secured a first down in the second quarter against Penn State at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa, on Saturday, Oct. 9, 2021.
Why the ranking?
If we’re being fair, Iowa is on a significant decline. Still, wins over what could be a ranked Penn State team, one over Iowa State, and a 6-2 record in a tough Big Ten will keep the Hawkeyes in the middle of the pack.
Ole Miss Rebels (6-2)
Mississippi quarterback Matt Corral (2) during a football game between Tennessee and Ole Miss at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, Tenn. on Saturday, Oct. 16, 2021. Credit: USA TODAY Sports
Why the ranking?
First of all — SEC. Secondly, Ole Miss’ only losses are at Alabama and at Auburn, two that will play very, very well with the CFP committee despite not having a victory over a ranked opponent yet.
Auburn Tigers (6-2)
Aug 31, 2019; Arlington, TX, USA; Auburn Tigers mascot Aubie the Tiger celebrates with cheerleaders after the victory against the Oregon Ducks at AT&T Stadium. Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports
Why the ranking?
Our run on the SEC teams continue. Auburn has been up and down but has quality wins over Arkansas and Ole Miss. The loss to Penn State is starting to look worse, but it’s not a bad one yet when you factor in how good the Nittany Lions can be with a healthy Sean Clifford.
Baylor Bears (7-1)
Oct 30, 2021; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears quarterback Gerry Bohanon (11) celebrates a 31-24 win over the Texas Longhorns during an NCAA football game at McLane Stadium. Credit: Stephen Spillman-USA TODAY Sports
Why the ranking?
Baylor is the one-loss team you’ve forgotten about. It has beaten Iowa State, Texas, and BYU for quality wins and has only lost the one game to Oklahoma State on the road. The committee will take a wait-and-see approach to moving the Bears higher, but they’ll be positioned appropriately.
Texas A&M (6-2)
Sep 8, 2018; College Station, TX, USA; Texas A&M Aggies mascot Reveille runs onto the field before the game between the Texas A&M Aggies and the Clemson Tigers at Kyle Field. Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Why the ranking?
Texas A&M will most likely be the highest-ranked two-loss team because of the win over Alabama (yes, the SEC Tide curve is in full effect). This team does look like an improved bunch with the Aggies only losses coming against Arkansas and Mississippi State.
Oklahoma State (7-1)
Oct 30, 2021; Stillwater, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma State Cowboys head coach Mike Gundy looks up at the scoreboard during the fourth quarter against Kansas Jayhawks at Boone Pickens Stadium. Oklahoma State won 55-3. Credit: Brett Rojo-USA TODAY Sports
Why the ranking?
There’s not a high-quality win, but there are a few pretty good ones with wins over Boise State, Baylor, and Texas. The only blip on the radar came by a measly three points on the road to a talented, albeit inconsistent, Iowa State team.
Wake Forest (8-0)
Sept. 30, 2017; Winston-Salem, NC, USA; A closeup view of a Wake Forest Demon Deacons helmet during the game against the Florida State Seminoles at BB&T Field. Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports
Why the ranking?
Deamon Deacon fans aren’t going to like where the CFP committee has their undefeated Power Five squad, but the resume looks eerily similar to that of a Group of Five team. There isn’t a single win over a ranked opponent, and until that happens, Wake Forest isn’t going to be able to jump up near the top unless there is further chaos.
Michigan Wolverines (7-1)
Michigan quarterback Cade McNamara talks to head coach Jim Harbaugh during the first half against Penn State at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Saturday, Nov. 28, 2020. Credit: USA TODAY Sports
Why the ranking?
Michigan would be ranked higher if Jim Harbaugh wouldn’t have mismanaged the game against Michigan State and let his rival come back to beat him. Still, the Wolverines will be inside the top ten for its only loss a close loss to a team that’s got a good chance of being up in the top five.
Notre Dame (7-1)
Sep 25, 2021; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Brian Kelly instructs players during the first half against the Wisconsin Badgers at Soldier Field. Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports
Why the ranking?
We kind of forgot about Notre Dame in the CFP Chase after the loss to Cincinnati, but despite some close shaves, the Irish are right back in the picture, having won its last three games. An issue though is presenting itself down the line because there are just not many opportunities for a statement win.
Ohio State Buckeyes (7-1)
Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) puts his hands on his helmet after a failed 4th down pass to Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Chris Olave (2) against Penn State Nittany Lions during the fourth quarter of their game at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio on October 30, 2021. Credit: USA TODAY Sports
Why the ranking?
Look, we try to be fair and sensible here on this Ohio State homer site. The Buckeyes might very well be better than this ranking, but the resume just isn’t there yet. I don’t think the committee will put the Buckeyes ahead of Oregon with the head-to-head, and everyone else has better wins. Don’t worry, there will be ample opportunity to climb further.
Oregon Ducks (7-1)
Oregon running back CJ Verdell runs past Ohio State safety Bryson Shaw (17) and cornerback Cameron Brown (26) for a 77-yard touchdown on Saturday. Verdell scored two touchdowns. Credit: USA TODAY Sports
Why the ranking?
Oregon has probably the best win on the season, a victory at the ‘Shoe over Ohio State. That’s what will keep the Ducks afloat in the conversation, even with the bad loss to Stanford. The reality is that Oregon probably has to win out and hope for the best and still allow the head-to-head against the Buckeyes be the trump card.
Oklahoma Sooners (9-0)
Oklahoma’s Caleb Williams (13) lines up for a play during a college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the TCU Horned Frogs at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Saturday, Oct. 16, 2021. Oklahoma won 52-31. Credit: USA TODAY Sports
Why the ranking?
If we’re truly going by game control and quality wins, this is about where Oklahoma should be. The teams above the Sooners have looked much better and have better wins to bolster the standing at this point.
Cincinnati Bearcats (8-0)
Cincinnati Bearcats head coach Luke Fickell leads the Cincinnati Bearcats onto the field to warm up before the NCAA football game between Cincinnati Bearcats and Murray State Racers on Saturday, Sept. 11, 2021, at Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati. Credit: USA TODAY Sports
Why the ranking?
Don’t be surprised if Cincinnati is further down the rankings than what the polls say. The Bearcats have the one win over what will be a pretty highly ranked Notre Dame team, but that’s it. Add that to some pretty subpar performance the last couple of weeks and the lack of respect for the Power Five teams in the past from the committee and the road to get into the College Football Playoff might still be a tough one.
Michigan State Spartans (8-0)
Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker III (9) runs against Michigan defensive back R.J. Moten (6) during the second half at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing on Saturday, Oct. 30, 2021. Credit: USA TODAY Sports
Why the ranking?
Michigan State is undefeated in one of the best power conferences and just knocked off a top ten opponent. When you are looking to slice and dice teams with similar data points, that’s going to win out in a lot of cases and I believe put Michigan State higher up the CFP Rankings than what most believe. Recent memory plays a big part here.
Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1)
Oct 23, 2021; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Bryce Young (9) celebrates after a touchdown against the Tennessee Volunteers during the second half at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Credit: Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports
Why the ranking?
Get ready for the revolt. I hope I’m proven wrong here, but the CFP committee has had a love affair with the Crimson Tide and the SEC since the beginning of all of it. With Texas A&M now playing well and ranked, in combination with the name, conference, and wins over the SEC-scheduled opponents, Alabama might be your No. 2 team at this point. Look for things like the “eye test” and “game control” to be mentioned for reasoning.
Georgia Bulldogs (8-0)
Sep 25, 2021; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Georgia Bulldogs quarterback Stetson Bennett (13) runs the ball during the first half against the Vanderbilt Commodores at Vanderbilt Stadium. Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
Why the ranking?
Not much to say here. Georgia has the best body of work by far and it’s going to take quite the effort for a team to take the Bulldogs down. It can be done, but there’s absolutely no reason to not have Georgia No. 1 right now.
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