Power rankings: Where do the Bills land before start of 2023?

With LB Von Miller on the PUP list, they could be at a disadvantage defensively and in the Cook Brothers department on Monday night against the Jets.

The fighting Josh Allens are going to be back in the thick of things in 2023, but they need someone not named Stefon Diggs to do something offensively. That’s why they drafted Dalton Kincaid, who will be a multi-tool weapon as both a tight end and a slot receiver. They also need more from their pass rush. It can’t be Von Miller or bust off the edge. Guys like Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa need to step up and take leaps of their own. The Bills are going to be players in the AFC for a long time, but their gameplan has to be more than Josh Allen playing like he’s listening to “Dragula” by Rob Zombie for 60 minutes.

The Bills are seemingly being slept on because of the new shiny thing in New York and the offensive firepower in South Beach. However, Buffalo has consistently been one of the best teams in the AFC over the past four seasons, and very little has changed from last season to suggest a regression.

Josh Allen is still a playground bully. Stefon Diggs remains one of the best receivers in the NFL, and this passing attack has been impressive for years. Their defense may not be as dominant until Von Miller returns, but outside of LB2 and CB2, there aren’t any holes on the roster.

Model rank: T-3 (10.7 wins)

Best-case scenario: On offense, a new-look stable of running backs is able to take just enough of the rushing load off Josh Allen, keeping him spryer for the stretch run. Gabe Davis breaks out one year later, and Dalton Kincaid bucks the usual rookie tight end trend. On defense, Von Miller has fresh, impactful legs when it matters, Greg Rousseau emerges as one of the best young pass rushers in the league, and Sean McDermott rediscovers some game-planning magic. The post-hype Bills finally exorcise 50-plus years of demons.

Worst-case scenario: It turns out the window has already closed, as Allen’s body breaks down, and he remains as turnover-prone as he was a year ago, while McDermott is overwhelmed by having two jobs at once. A loaded AFC East knocks Buffalo out of the playoffs entirely.

Up next: at New York Jets, Monday 8:15 p.m. ET

I think No. 5 is O.K., preferable even, for a Bills team and fan base that was utterly exhausted by the weight of its own expectations last year. In certain locales, a winning franchise means just a little bit more. Sean McVay having success in Los Angeles is not going to change the daily lives of the cashiers at House of Bijan on Rodeo Drive selling $880 yellow alligator wallets (a real thing).

Consider this a season in which the Bills are met with their realities: a QB who thrives because he takes on a lot, a wide receiver core in transition, a defense evolving. This takes time. Buffalo can still be good, but perhaps just the fifth-best team for now.

It feels like this team is a Jenga tower, 20 moves in. There’s plenty of wobble; can they hold it all together?

Von Miller is out for at least the first four weeks of the season, setting up a fascinating battle in Week 1. Sure, Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers get top billing in this AFC East clash, but dig deeper and you see a shorthanded Bills pass rush against a Jets offensive line that has only recently come together as planned. But Buffalo trading Boogie Basham before the roster-cut deadline is an indication the Bills think they have enough with Greg Rousseau, Leonard Floyd, Shaq Lawson, A.J. Epenesa and Kingsley Jonathan to stem the tide until Miller returns. A strong showing against a still-jelling Jets group on Monday night would go a long way toward quelling any early fears about the teeth of the pass-rush unit.

They are the forgotten AFC East team heading into the season with all the fanfare going to the Jets and Dolphins. But they are still the team to beat in the division with Josh Allen.

Von Miller will miss at least the first four weeks of the season, and that’s fine. The Bills will be smart with Miller, making sure he’s healthy and able to be a factor late in the season. The defense missed Miller last season after he tore his ACL.

Post-draft ranking: 4

On the hot seat: OT Spencer Brown

Brown, a 2021 third-round pick, worked to return from back surgery after his rookie season and, as a result, missed some practice time leading up to the 2022 season. General manager Brandon Beane said he thought Brown improved as last season went on, but as Brown goes into his third year, the Bills need him to be consistent and show improvement. Buffalo has limited depth at offensive tackle, and Brown playing well this year will go a long way in how the team addresses the position in the future.