Power rankings: Despite still needing win for playoffs, Bills are top five

All they need to do to surprisingly snatch another AFC East title is beat the Dolphins – against whom Josh Allen has thrown multiple TD passes in 12 straight games, the longest streak by a quarterback against another team in league history.

Last Week: 3

Buffalo has won three straight games, and one more win will all but lock up a playoff spot. If they win next week, and if the Ravens defeat the Dolphins, Week 18 in Miami is for the division.

The third best team in the league still could miss the playoffs.

The Bills absolutely needed to take care of business against the Patriots, but divisional matchups are a different beast. Josh Allen completed only half of his pass attempts, failing to throw a touchdown on the day and accumulating only 169 yards on 30 attempts.

A late-game shot on a game-sealing run gave us all a scare with Allen, who has a propensity to take big hits. Buffalo can win the AFC East next week with a win against the Miami Dolphins, which is something nobody saw coming midway through the year when Buffalo’s defense was reeling after the loss of Tre’Davious White and Matt Milano.

Last Week: 8

Week 17 Result: Won vs. New England 27-21

The Buffalo Bills are one of the AFC’s hottest teams—Sunday’s win over the Patriots was Buffalo’s fourth in a row and fifth in six games. With a win over the Miami Dolphins next week, the Bills will not only make the postseason but also win the AFC East.

The thing is, the Bills didn’t play especially well offensively. Josh Allen completed just half his passes for 170 yards and posted a passer rating south of 55. The Bills averaged just 3.4 yards per carry on the ground. But the Buffalo defense held the Pats under 300 yards of offense and forced four turnovers.

Following the victory, head coach Sean McDermott lauded Buffalo’s toughness, not just on Sunday but over the last month or so.

“They’ve been very resilient. And just the things that they’ve learned, I think, through the journey that have gotten us to here and then using them week to week to find a way to win games,” McDermott told reporters. “Today we knew wasn’t going to be easy and I thought that their resilient nature was on display in the second half.”

Sobleski wrote:

“The Bills are the proverbial team that no one wants to face at the moment. After a disappointing 6-6 start, the light came on for one of the NFL’s most talented squads and it won four straight. Buffalo has gone from being the team everyone viewed as an underachiever to possibly claiming a division title. A win over the Miami Dolphins this coming weekend will give the Bills their fourth straight AFC East crown and home-field advantage to start the postseason.”

(Last week: 4)

Sunday: Beat New England Patriots 27-21

The lesson: Josh Allen is the MVP runner-up

All the hand-wringing after Allen’s four-turnover start to the season is long gone as the second-most unique player in the league behind Lamar Jackson has the Bills sitting at No. 6 in the AFC playoff race after their fourth straight win Sunday, and Buffalo can win the AFC East by beating Miami on Sunday. Despite a pedestrian statistical performance against the Patriots, Allen is seventh in the NFL in passing yards (3,947) and second in scramble EPA per game (3.47), according to TruMedia.

Up next: at Miami Dolphins, Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

The past two weeks have provided evidence of what I warned about after the Bills’ dominant Week 15 win over the Cowboys. It felt like the vast majority of my Power Rankings colleagues the world around leaped them into the top three or four teams — believe me, I heard plenty about it from you on social media. But I wasn’t yet ready to graduate them to the head of the second class. There’s no doubt Buffalo has played some clutch football, with a more balanced, composed effort all around. But Sunday’s win over the Patriots marked the second straight game in which the Bills struggled to put away a team that will be picking in the top 10 of the 2024 NFL Draft. It’s less concerning when the Patriots give the Bills a game, as we’re still talking about a Hall of Fame defensive coach on the other sideline. But would Buffalo be able to overcome another sloppy performance in the upcoming for-all-the-division-marbles Week 18 showdown at Miami? That feels like a stretch. There’s still some fine-tuning to be done, and the Bills aren’t even yet in the postseason. This thing is far from over.

Beat Miami this week and they win the AFC East. This team will be tough to beat come playoff time.

The Bills got what they wanted, a shot at the AFC East title in the final game of the regular season. There’s also a chance the Bills go into that game looking at a division title with a win and being completely out of the playoffs with a loss. And the win-or-go-home scenario isn’t that farfetched:

Week 17 ranking: 7

Biggest offseason contract to watch: LB Von Miller

Miller’s role on the team is in question as he was a healthy scratch in Week 17 due to his on-field performance (0 sacks, 3 quarterback hits in 11 games). Off the field, he is facing a felony assault charge after allegedly assaulting his pregnant girlfriend in Texas. Miller has said the allegations are false. The team is letting the legal process play out and following the league’s lead. How the Bills handle the Miller situation — on and off the field — will be something to watch. Miller is under contract through 2027 on a six-year, $120 million deal, but if the team decided to move on, a post-June 1 designation would result in some cap savings but would still leave significant dead cap in 2024.