Potentially tender schedule awaits Packers QB Jordan Love in 2023
The 2023 regular season slate doesn’t look particularly difficult for first-year starting quarterback Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers.
By points per game and defensive DVOA in 2022, the Packers play only one team ranked in the top 10 in both categories (Saints) but eight games against teams ranked 20th or lower in both.
Defenses can and do vary from year to year, so assuming numbers from 2022 will perfectly predict the difficulty of facing certain defenses in 2023 isn’t advisable. But the very recent past is often a solid predictor of the future; a good chunk of the teams that were poor on defense in 2022 will be poor on defense again in 2023.
Here’s a closer look at the Packers schedule based on ranks in points per game and defensive DVOA:
Wk | Opp | PPG | DVOA |
1 | at Bears | 32nd | 32nd |
2 | at Falcons | 23rd | 30th |
3 | vs. Saints | 9th | 8th |
4 | vs. Lions | 29th | 28th |
5 | at Raiders | 26th | 31st |
6 | Bye | ||
7 | at Broncos | 14th | 10th |
8 | vs. Vikings | 30th | 27th |
9 | vs. Rams | 21st | 18th |
10 | at Steelers | 11th | 12th |
11 | vs. Chargers | 22nd | 16th |
12 | at Lions | 29th | 28th |
13 | vs. Chiefs | 16th | 17th |
14 | at Giants | 17th | 29th |
15 | vs. Bucs | 15th | 13th |
16 | at Panthers | 19th | 25th |
17 | at Vikings | 30th | 27th |
18 | vs. Bears | 32nd | 32nd |
— The first five games look especially appealing, even with a potentially troublesome matchup with the Saints included. The Packers will face four of the bottom five teams in defensive DVOA from the 2022 season.
— The finish doesn’t look bad either. The Packers will play four teams that finished 25th or lower in defensive DVOA over the final five games.
— Overall, the Packers will play 12 of 17 games against teams that ranked 17th or lower in points per game allowed and 17th or lower in defensive DVOA in 2022.
— In terms of total sacks and sack percentage, Love will play only six games against teams in top 16 of both categories from 2022. He’ll play only six total games against teams in the top 16 of interceptions as well.
— Paul Bretl of Packers Wire dug deeper into the numbers of opposing defenses on the schedule here.
