Post hype starting pitchers for fantasy baseball 2024

When it comes to fantasy sports, we love a breakout. We spend days analyzing (or reading about) metrics that might suggest a player who's set to hit a new level or emerge into a role we never saw coming for them. However, the consequence of that is we tend to almost immediately discard players who don't produce in the way we hoped. Draft rooms are littered with former "favorites" who we now sneer at as we scroll passed their names.

But post-hype sleepers have feelings too. As well as the ability to make a real difference on your fantasy teams.

In this article, I'm going to look at some post-hype starting pitchers who I think could provide major value based on where they're going in drafts. I covered post-hype hitters last week, so you can click here to check that out.

Post-hype here means somebody who was either a top prospect or had some buzz in previous seasons but failed to live up to it. They need to have languished in the minors for longer than expected or struggled in an extended major league attempt. Since they're no longer hyped, they also need to be going outside of the top 200 in current drafts, which means none of these are slam dunks to outproduce their draft value, but they're guys who I think have a good chance to do so.

All ADP data is taken from NFBC Rotowire Online Championship drafts from February 25th to March 10th (38 drafts)

Triston McKenzie - Guardians (ADP: 208)

Triston McKenzie is a pitcher we may have forgotten about due to injury. The right-hander was a trendy pick in many 2023 drafts after coming off a dominant 2022 season in which he posted a 2.96 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 25.6% strikeout rate in 191.1 innings. We also may have forgotten that four-seamer had the most iVB of any starter’s four-seamer in 2022, and paired with excellent extension, means that the pitch can outperform its middling velocity, especially if he keeps attacking with it upstairs. His career batting average against is .196 and he improved his walk rate significantly in 2022. Given that his curve has also been an elite put-away pitch for McKenzie, but he has struggled to command it, the arsenal took a real step forward with that added control. Coming off shoulder surgery, we simply have no idea if that will stick and he needs it to if he wants to be near as successful. He's definitely a gamble at this price, but he has the raw talent to way outproduce it if he stays healthy.

MacKenzie Gore - Nationals (ADP: 252)

MacKenzie Gore has always had good stuff, but he never developed in quite the way people expected. He was once the top pitching prospect in baseball, then he forgot how to throw strikes, then he got traded, and then he had an up-and-down debut in Washington. Still just 25 years old, this may be the year that Gore puts it together. The left-hander changed his curveball last year, and even though it didn’t grade out well, he gave up an above-average 38% Ideal Contact Rate and registered a 17.4% SwStr%. Now it appears he’s altered both his four-seam and his approach. So far in spring, Gore is sitting 96 mph with his four-seam, and, more importantly, he’s throwing it up in the zone more after throwing it up just 49% of the time last year. If Gore is keeping a harder fastball up in the zone, his curve and slider could play up more in the bottom of the zone, and we could see a real leap forward.

Shane Baz - Rays (ADP: 268)

I think people forgot about Shane Baz. The former top prospect is coming back from injury after not pitching at all in 2023 and while his minor league success has not carried over into the majors in his very brief sample size, the raw stuff is electric. On a pure stuff basis, he would likely be drafted up around where Eury Perez is going; however, we know that Baz will be on an innings limit and won't pitch in Tampa until June. Still, we know Baz is going to pitch this season, and when he does, he should bring a high-90s fastball with a slider and a curve that he can throw for strikes. It was just 27 innings in 2022 but both of those pitches had over 17% swinging strike rates. With the news that Baz tweaked an oblique in the weight room in spring, the Rays can now stash him on the IL to start the season instead of having to monitor his innings in the minor leagues, which means fantasy owners in most formats can also draft him and place him on the IL. Then you can end the season with 100-120 innings from an incredibly talented pitching prospect.

DL Hall - Brewers (ADP: 286)

DL Hall was a player I was optimistic about when he was in Baltimore, but I felt it might take a while for him to move back into that rotation. Now that he's in Milwaukee, it seems like a rotation spot is his, and I love the upside. Hall spoke openly about last year's back injury causing him to lose velocity on his fastball, which was a blessing in disguise because it forced him to focus on his off-speed. In the second half of the season, the velocity came back, and he tweaked his slider to be four mph harder with a heavier actual break. It still has some horizontal movement, but it's moving much more vertically which caused the pitch to see a huge bump in Stuff+ grades, and I think it gives him another level of upside. Hall also moved over to the first base side of the rubber and improved the consistency of his release extension, which allowed his four-seam to improve because it added plus extension to already strong velocity. We've yet to see him put all these changes together as a starter but he seems to have been the centerpiece of the Corbin Burnes deal, which makes me think the Brewers will give him a chance to show what he can do, and I'm going to have plenty of shares at this cost.

A.J. Puk - Marlins (ADP: 306)

A.J. Puk looks to have an inside track for a spot in the Marlins' rotation given that Braxton Garrett and Trevor Rodgers both got late starts to spring and Garrett could start on the IL. As a result, his ADP is rising. Puk never panned out as a starter in Oakland, but he thrived as a member of the Marlins' bullpen and perhaps the Marlins can turn him into a solid starter like they did with his former teammate in Oakland, Jesus Luzardo. Interestingly, Puk is now throwing two different versions of his slider: a sweeper for swings and misses, and a harder gyro slider for strikes and to get in on the hands of right-handed hitters. I think that's a nice addition for him, and he's been rock solid in the spring with 8.1 shutout innings over three starts to go along with 15 strikeouts and four walks. Can he keep these gains and also go five innings at a time? We won't know for sure until we see it, but it's worth the gamble at this cost.

Jameson Taillon - Cubs (ADP: 319)

I wrote about Jameson Taillon as one of my favorite picks after the top 300 here, so make sure you click that link to read a more detailed breakdown. I know Taillon is battling a lower back injury now that could land him on the IL, but the Cubs aren't concerned, and he could miss just one to three starts in the regular season.

Tanner Houck - Red Sox (ADP: 357)

I felt like Tanner Houck was on the outside looking in for a starting spot in the Red Sox rotation, but with the injury to Lucas Giolito, he seems to be locked into a spot, and he's been electric this spring, allowing just four hits over eight innings with nine strikeouts and two walks. Manager Alex Cora has said that no Red Sox pitcher has gained more velocity in the offseason than Houck and it's likely just because of health. Per Statcast, Houck averaged 95.2 mph with his four-seamer in 2022 but dipped to 93.9 last year as he was coming off of back surgery. He's now fully healthy and claims the full offseason is the reason for the velocity increase.

Houck also mentioned that he worked on fine-tuning his mechanics over the offseason to improve his command. "If I get that over-wrapped, then it's pointing either at the third base dugout or the hitter. As long as I keep that in mind, keep my head still, going towards home plate, I like my chances of getting it over the plate." So far this spring, that's paid off; however, the biggest concern for Houck has been a third pitch that will help him get lefties out. I haven't seen enough in spring to convince me this issue is totally gone, but with a rotation spot seemingly locked in, I'm willing to take a gamble on the improved velocity and command at this ADP.

Matt Manning - Tigers (ADP: 399)

At one point, Matt Manning seemed like the prized pitching prospect in the Tigers system, but injuries and a lack of development have quieted that a bit. Still, Manning has been pretty successful in his limited MLB innings over the last two seasons with a 3.43 ERA season in 2022 and a 3.58 ERA mark in 2023. His four-seam has elite extension and great approach angle, but it has mediocre velocity, so he needs to start getting it up in the zone more to get more whiffs. However, Manning has shown increased velocity this spring, and while it has become just a small increase as spring has gone on, it also seems to be coming with better Induced Vertical Break (iVB), which means it’s “rising” more or, in reality, just sinking less than a normal fastball would as it heads toward home plate. If he can keep that up, there's something here because Manning has a tremendous slider that he pounds the zone with and induces tons of weak contact. The downside is that even that pitch doesn't miss bats, and the rest of the arsenal hasn't developed. Still, with some better four-seam usage, I could see Manning being a steady ratio contributor in deeper leagues for an improving Tigers team.

Aaron Ashby - Brewers (ADP: 389)

I wrote about Ashby in the same article as Taillon, so check that out. Many people were enamored with Ashby after he debuted in 2021 and posted a 4.55 ERA in 31.2 innings but also showed off a 97 mph fastball from the left side en route to a 29.3% strikeout rate and 13.3% swinging strike rate. However, Ashby failed to take a big step forward in 2022 then got hurt and missed all of the 2023 season, which has allowed him to qualify for placement in this article. When he was going well, Ashby was a lefty with plus velocity, two good swing-and-miss pitches, and the ability to limit hard contact. All of that is incredibly enticing, especially at this price in a rotation that seems to lack any sure things aside from Freddy Peralta. I will say that, since I wrote that article, Ashby has made just two spring starts, throwing three innings with mixed results, so there is a chance that he'll start the year in the minors.

Brady Singer - Royals (ADP: 390)

Many of us have fallen for Brady Singer in the past, and it rarely pans out, but this is (potentially) not the same Singer. He was named Kansas City's Pitcher of the Year award after he went 10-5 with a 3.23 ERA in 2022, but his career never followed suit and he has a 4.49 career ERA in 505.2 innings with a 22% strikeout rate. That's not helping anybody in fantasy leagues. Yet, Singer is coming into 2024 with a new pitch mix, highlighted by increased usage of a sweeper he used a few times last season and a new four-seamer. As Eno Sarris has mentioned a bunch of times, pitchers who throw a sinker as their primary fastball are more likely to pick up a sweeper quickly because they already throw their primary pitch from the side of the baseball. So far this spring, Singer has shown that could be the case for him with the sweeper looking pretty good. The right-hander has always had solid control, so if the sweeper and increased usage of the four-seam up in the zone add more swing-and-miss to his game, we could see another usable season from him.

Casey Mize - Tigers (ADP: 421)

I know it feels like forever ago, but Mize was the first overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft and seemed like a lock to be a big-league star. He never quite put up elite minor league numbers, and then underwhelmed in 188.2 MLB innings while battling injuries. Even though he missed all of 2023 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, Mize also admitted he had been pitching through a back injury for years that he finally got cleaned up. So, Mize now appears to be healthy and ready for the 2024 season, so we like to see that.

We also like that, through three spring appearances, Mize is averaging over 95 mph on his four-seam, which is up two mph from his 2022 season. Considering he’s coming off arm surgery, the fact that his velocity is already up is something to note. He also is showcasing much more iVB on his fastball. In 2022, Mize’s iVB was just 14.4 inches, but it has been up over 18 inches in both starts of spring training with 7.3 feet of extension, which would give him elite extension and iVB. Pair that with a return to his old splitter, and there’s a chance that we’ll finally get the version of Casey Mize we expected to get years ago.