Playoffs? Playoffs? Yes, Miami Dolphins not afraid to say it, believe it | Schad

We're going to try something different. Because, hey, what the Miami Dolphins have been trying for 22 years hasn't worked, has it?

We're going to use the word "playoffs" and we're even going to use the word "Super Bowl."

Shout it from the rafters. "Playoffs!" "Super Bowl!" "Playoffs!" "Super Bowl!"

Why? Well, because Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel says it's OK. He encourages you and I and Dolphins players to stare down their long-standing futility and embrace this new opportunity.

"We were coming after 2022 so it would be one of those years that you remember forever," McDaniel said to players in Sunday's jubilant locker room, after a fourth consecutive victory improved Miami to 7-3.

McDaniel, or Mystic Mike, or Magic Mike or Miami Mike, or whatever it is Tua Tagovailoa feels like calling his head coach, and good buddy, that day, is not afraid to dream big.

The Tape Don't Lie:: Miami Dolphins beat Cleveland Browns, a Review

Joe Schad's Snap Conclusions: Dolphins beat Browns

Dolphins have right head coach, QB: Let's call it now | Schad

"It’s long-distance running," McDaniel said this week, when asked about the locker room comment. "It’s not a sprint. So we still have a lot of the race to go."

But how McDaniel and the Dolphins are approaching their first race together is different.

Tagovailoa proclaimed in recent weeks that the Dolphins are not afraid to talk about the playoffs, or even the Super Bowl. And teammate after teammate then backed up Tua with emboldened commentary.

Last Dolphins playoff win 22 years ago

The Dolphins haven't won a postseason game since the winter of 2000, when a running back named Lamar Smith propelled them past the Colts at what was called Pro Player Stadium.

In McDaniel's introductory press conference, he addressed that beast head-on.

And when Miami slid from 3-0 to 3-3 this season, his team did not waver. Notably they did not lose confidence in their new coach. And now the Dolphins are 7-3 and in first place in the AFC East, just like they were late in that 2000 season.

"In the NFL's toughest division, the surprising Dolphins are on top," read the headline on the cover of Sports Illustrated nearly 22 years ago.

Twenty-two-blippin'-years!

That's way too long. The last time the Dolphins won a playoff game, McDaniel was a 17-year-old at Smoky Hill High in Auroro, Colo.

"You're playing at a very, very high level," McDaniel said to Tua on the sideline, near the end of the Browns victory.

McDaniel told Tua he had thrown three "tuddys" and had nine touchdowns and no interceptions in his last three games. That he was making good decisions.

And this part is so, so important.

"It's OK to admit," McDaniel told Tua.

Tua has been so, so hard on himself throughout his career, and lifetime. And now here comes McDaniel telling him it's OK to unapologetically believe in himself. And even say the good part out loud.

Mike McDaniel believes in Tua Tagovailoa

McDaniel tells Tua he believes in him and that he should believe in him, regardless of if things aren't going quite so well, or if they're going as perfectly as they have the last three weeks.

All Tua does is win, win, win, no matter what, and, no, it's not the most important statistic for a quarterback, but don't listen to anyone who tells you the wins don't count.

After a much-needed and much-deserved bye this weekend, Miami hosts the woeful Texans in a game they'll be favored heavily to win. That would bring Miami to 8-3.

It gets tougher from there.

According to Tankathon, Miami has the 15th-most difficult remaining strength of schedule, so, middle-of-the-pack. The Jets are 10th-toughest but still have the Bears, Lions and Jaguars. The Bills are 18th-toughest but they still have the Lions, Bears and Browns, Miami's last three opponents.

Let's say that the Dolphins beat Houston, Green Bay and the Jets at home.

Let's say that Miami splits an upcoming California trip with the 49ers and Chargers.

And let's say that the Dolphins lose at Buffalo and at New England.

That would give Mike McDaniel an 11-6 record in his first season, and very likely get Miami into the playoffs for only the second time in 14 seasons.

Adam Gase's Dolphins went 10-6 and lost a playoff game at Pittsburgh in January, 2017.

Brian Flores' Dolphins went 10-6 in 2020 but failed to qualify. The NFL has since expanded to a 17-team playoff field.

The odds to make the playoffs this season are in Miami's favor.

The computers like Dolphins' playoff odds

There's an 86 percent chance this will happen, according to a Football Outsiders formula. There's a 90 percent chance this will happen, according to a fivethirtyeight.com formula.

All teams that win their division receive either a first-round bye (one team per conference) or host a first-round playoff game, regardless of record.

It's certainly possible Dolphins-Bills or Dolphins-Bills-Jets end up in some convoluted tiebreaker scenario. But depending on which formula you prefer, there is either a 28- or 36-percent chance at the moment that the Dolphins host a playoff game at Hard Rock Stadium on Jan. 15, 16 or 17.

Wouldn't that be something?

In too many recent years, Dolphins fans, and reporters, have been forced to turn their attention to the NFL Draft, and web sites like "Tankathon" when the holiday season arrives.

Those days are over.

In too many recent years, Dolphins fans, and reporters, have been called upon to use Common Core math in determining the 16 different scenarios needed for the club to back-door into the playoffs as the final wildcard.

Those days are over.

Now, there is a confident belief, inside and outside the Dolphins' facility, that this team has the talent and the coaching to be not only an AFC playoff participant, but a contender, as soon as this year.

Why shouldn't they think that way?

In the most recent ESPN NFL power poll, the Dolphins are ranked as the NFL's 4th-best team, behind only the Chiefs, Eagles and Vikings.

And this isn't a short-term shift. Over their last 45 games played, the Dolphins are 28-17, a stretch spanning back to late in the tear-down season of 2019.

That's tied for the 6th-best mark in the NFL. Yes, it is true that the five teams ahead of them total 31 playoff games played and 19 playoff victories in the previous three seasons.

But it's time to start thinking about this Dolphins franchise differently.

And, for the record, fivethirtyeight.com says Miami has a 5 percent chance to win the Super Bowl.

Joe Schad is a journalist at the Palm Beach Post part of the USA TODAY Florida Network. You can reach him at jschad@pbpost.com. Help support our journalism. Subscribe today.

This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Miami Dolphins playoff chances, odds, and Super Bowl chances, odds