Peyton Manning's Last Stand
Did you know that Peyton Manning has been done before? Pro Football Focus’ Sam Monson remembers it well. Week 2, 2012. Atlanta, Georgia. Manning threw three picks in the first quarter of his second start as a Bronco, and that was that. Over the hill. His neck issues a career killer … until he went on to have his finest season since 2006.
What you got — Manning’s six-game slump dating back to last December — ain’t nothing new. This country’s hard on people. But just because this isn’t Manning’s first slump doesn’t mean it won’t be his last. Manning was alarmingly bad on Sunday, completing 24-of-40 passes for 175 yards, zero touchdowns and a pick six. He appeared out of body in the pocket, hurrying passes, failing to set his feet and surrendering on sacks like a kid brother.
Manning’s 4.4 YPA was his worst since Week 12, 2013. Including last January’s Divisional Round debacle, Manning has only four scores over his past six starts. His ducks have become doves, inviting opposing defenses to bear down on the box like a den. Manning’s deep ball is now purely theoretical.
So is it time to panic?
The question is if you want to connect Manning’s Sunday performance to his 2014-15 collapse. The comparison is imperfect since Manning was still very much playing at an MVP level before suffering twin quad injuries last season. That’s a strike in favor of the “one game is only one game” argument for Sunday. It’s just that Manning is failing the eye test so persuasively, it’s hard not to bridge last year’s failures to this week’s wobblers.
Manning has little time to regroup. Facing arguably the most important start of his time in Denver, he has three days to prepare for a Chiefs defense that sent Houston’s Brian Hoyer to the bench on Sunday. Even worse, he has to deal with Justin Houston and company on the road. Facing a similarly vulnerable Tom Brady last Week 4, the Chiefs prompted widespread-obituary writing. Brady’s subsequent resurgence is a reminder of why it’s silly to write off players like Manning after only a few bad games. But it’s equally silly to assume this is little more than a common funk Manning is ready to explode out of. If Manning is still one of the greatest, Thursday is the time to prove it. Until he does, he’ll be a low-end QB1 for fantasy purposes, and one who needs to be handcuffed in re-draft leagues.
Five Things That Didn’t Go According To Plan in Week 1
Dez Bryant’s opening night. Typically a Giants slayer, Bryant entered the fourth quarter with just four catches for 43 yards. He exited it with an appointment to have a screw implanted in his broken right foot. Not only will Bryant miss his first game since 2011, but perhaps 4-6 of them. It’s a crushing blow to the Cowboys’ NFC East title defense, and leaves Tony Romo with one of the league’s thinnest receiver corps. Dallas’ remade backfield already had little room for error. Now it has zero, as Romo can’t be expected to throw his way out of every 3rd-and-8 Joseph Randle, Lance Dunbar, Darren McFadden and Christine Michael create. For fantasy owners, the repercussions beyond Bryant are minimal. Terrance Williams is now a slightly-safer WR3/4, while Cole Beasley is probably rosterable in 12-14 team leagues. Jason Witten’s floor is a little higher. Bryant owners can only sit back and wait, and hope that he doesn’t suffer a setback. Foot issues can be extremely tricky for wideouts.
The Colts’ veteran movement. Frank Gore was in and out of the second half with calf cramps, while Andre Johnson looked every bit his 34 years. Although Gore’s performance offered no real reason for alarm, Johnson’s did. The future Hall-of-Famer could secure only 4-of-10 targets, gaining a meager 24 yards. He committed a brutal drop on a two-point conversation attempt, and let himself get smothered on Andrew Luck’s second interception. All afternoon, Johnson struggled to unstick himself from coverage. With T.Y. Hilton (bruised knee) set to miss at least one game, Johnson needs to rediscover his legs in a hurry. He’ll be a mid-range WR3 for next week’s meeting with the Jets.
Jameis Winston’s first NFL start. Forget Winston’s first start, how about his first pass? Intended for Adam Humphries, it instead ended up in the Bucs’ own end for a Titans pick six. Things stayed low from there, with Winston completing just 16-of-33 passes for 210 yards (6.4 YPA), two scores and two picks in a 42-14 loss. There’s no reason to panic. Winston won’t be the last No. 1 overall pick to get off to a bad start, and he didn’t even have his No. 1 receiver on Sunday. But if Week 1 and the preseason are any indication, Winston won’t be putting much heat on Marcus Mariota for the title of “best rookie quarterback.”
LeSean McCoy’s Bills debut. Acquired to be the centerpiece of the Bills’ offense, Shady ended up an afterthought. Outshined by Tyrod Taylor and out-rushed by Karlos Williams, McCoy watched as Williams and Anthony Dixon vultured touchdowns. He averaged an abysmal 2.41 yards on 17 carries, repeating last year’s mistake of going east/west instead of north/south. He has an intriguing Week 2 matchup in a Pats defense that looked soft in the belly last Thursday, but the team that just held him to a 2.41 YPC wasn’t exactly the ‘85 Bears. Shady remains a low-end RB1 until further notice.
Blake Bortles and Derek Carr’s improvement. The duo completed just 29-of-52 passes for 244 yards (4.69 YPA), one score and two interceptions. Carr gets an “incomplete” because he departed with a hand injury, but Bortles simply looked like the same player he was as a rookie, telegraphing passes, struggling with sideline accuracy and lacking awareness. Things aren’t going to lighten up in Week 2, where Bortles must contend with Ndamukong Suh and the Dolphins. It’s time for the sophomore to start translating his preseason play to September.
Don't forget, for the latest on everything NFL, check out Rotoworld's Player News, or follow @Rotoworld_FB or @RotoPat on Twitter.
Five Things That Went According To Plan In Week 1
The Bills’ decision to go with Tyrod Taylor. Making his first career start as a 26-year-old fifth-year veteran, Taylor was both poised and explosive. The dual threat extended drives with his legs, and displayed surprising touch with his arm. The highlight was the best pass thrown by any quarterback on Sunday, a perfectly-lofted 51-yard bomb Percy Harvin was able to catch against decent coverage in the end zone. When it was all said and done, Taylor finished with just five incompletions. That’s despite the fact that his No. 1 receiver, Sammy Watkins, had zero grabs. It’s far too early to call the Taylor experiment a success. The Bills play in a brutal division, and teams now have film to study. But at least for one day, Taylor made Rex Ryan’s decision to start him over Matt Cassel not a decision at all.
James Jones’ return to the Packers. Jones slipped on the Pack’s No. 3 receiver role like an old glove, catching 4-of-4 targets for 51 yards and two touchdowns. He left Ty Montgomery and Jeff Janis in the dust, and frustrated legions of Davante Adams owners. Jones isn’t going to repeat 2012’s 14-touchdown fluke, but last year’s Raiders disaster won’t be reproduced, either. As a boom or bust WR3/4 catching passes from Aaron Rodgers, Jones is back in his rightful place.
Keenan Allen’s bounce-back. One of last season’s biggest disappointments, Allen kicked off 2015 by catching 15 passes for 166 yards. He’s already 19.4 percent of the way to last year’s receptions total. Allen made plays down the field against the Lions, and used his elite route-running chops to create space for himself. Philip Rivers is always going to spread the ball around, but Allen has a real shot at finishing as a top-18 receiver.
Ameer Abdullah’s NFL debut. Abdullah turned 11 touches in 94 yards, including 7/50/1 on the ground. He owned Eric Weddle’s soul on his 24-yard touchdown, which also happened to be his first career tote. The rookie playmaker out-snapped Joique Bell 21-18, and averaged 7.1 yards per carry while Bell managed 2.3. The Abdullah takeover is happening sooner rather than later. He’s a FLEX option with high-end RB2 upside.
Josh McCown and Brian Hoyer’s first starts for their new teams. The two worst quarterbacks in the league last season, McCown and Hoyer remained so on Sunday. Both ended up on the pine, with McCown suffering a concussion and Hoyer getting outright benched. McCown is week to week, and Hoyer is in his coach’s doghouse. The over/under on remaining starts for both is five. The debate in Cleveland and Houston is whose year will be longer.
Questions
1. Is it too late for the Ravens to keep Anquan Boldin or Torrey Smith?
2. Colts have any interest in blocking somebody?
3. In what kind of world should Ryan Fitzpatrick have obviously remained your starting quarterback?
Early Waiver Look (Players owned in less than 50 percent of Yahoo leagues)
QB: Marcus Mariota, Andy Dalton, Alex Smith, Tyrod Taylor
RB: Chris Johnson, David Johnson, Dion Lewis, Bishop Sankey, Ronnie Hillman
WR: Donte Moncrief, Tyler Lockett, Cole Beasley, James Jones, Allen Hurns
TE: Ladarius Green, Eric Ebron, Richard Rodgers
Stats of the Week
Marcus Mariota had more touchdowns (four) than incompletions (three). He traded in his helmet for a ballcap in the fourth quarter, treating the Bucs like Washington State or Colorado. The rookie dual threat is *the* add at quarterback this week.
Five Blake Bortles interceptions have been housed for touchdowns since the start of last season. That’s the most in the NFL. No one wants Bortles to pick up the Matt Schaub torch.
Jay Cutler completed just 50 percent of his passes, which amazingly would have been his lowest completion percentage of the Marc Trestman era.
Cardinals RB David Johnson has one NFL touch. It went for a 55-yard touchdown. Nevertheless, coach Bruce Arians claims Chris Johnson will carry the mail in Andre Ellington’s (PCL) absence.
Donte Moncrief played 57-of-77 snaps for the Colts, and was a fixture even before T.Y. Hilton bruised his knee. Moncrief finished with 6/46/1 on 11 targets. He’s a priority add this week.
Tyler Lockett played 58-of-83 snaps on offense. The rookie gamebreaker is being given every opportunity to carve out a role on offense.
Cody Latimer was the Broncos’ No. 5 receiver, running behind nonentities Jordan Norwood and Andre Caldwell. The dream is dying in Denver.
The Bucs are 2-15 with a -161 point differential in the Lovie Smith “era.”
Awards Section
Week 1 Fantasy All-Pro Team: QB Tom Brady, RB Matt Forte, RB Chris Ivory, WR DeAndre Hopkins, WR Keenan Allen, TE Rob Gronkowski, TE Tyler Eifert
Most Absurd Play of the Week: Whatever this was in Dolphins/Redskins.
Tweet of the Week, from Mr. Andy Behrens: Peyton Manning currently averaging 3.77 YPA. Matt Asiata of the air, basically.
