Peyton Manning a national champion? 13 times Tennessee football would have made a 12-team playoff

Tennessee would’ve played in the College Football Playoff twice in the 1980s, eight times in the 1990s, twice in the 2000s and once more in 2022.

In an alternate reality that included a 12-team playoff − like the one kicking off in 2024 − the Vols would’ve been a regular in the bracket.

Heath Shuler and Peyton Manning would’ve played in five playoffs. And UT would’ve hosted a playoff game at Neyland Stadium six times in the past 30 years, including last season.

But how would that have changed Vols history?

In an expanded College Football Playoff, the six highest-ranked conference champions and six highest-ranked at-large teams will make up the 12-team field. The four-highest ranked conference champions will receive a first-round bye. The other eight teams will play in the first round with the higher seeds hosting at campus sites.

Here’s how that would’ve played out for UT since 1980. The AP poll is used through 1997, then the BCS poll beginning in 1998 and the CFP poll in 2022.

1985

Byes: 1 Oklahoma (Big 8 champion), 2 Iowa (Big 10), 3 Tennessee (SEC), 4 BYU (WAC).

Rest of field: 5 Penn State, 6 Miami, 7 Michigan, 8 Nebraska, 9 Air Force, 10 Texas A&M (Southwest), 11 LSU, 12 UCLA (Pac-10).

Tennessee matchup: Quarterfinal vs. Miami/LSU winner.

Prediction: Instead of upsetting Miami in the Sugar Bowl, the Vols would’ve beaten the Hurricanes in the quarterfinal and then faced Iowa in the semifinal. They had one common opponent, UCLA, which tied UT and beat Iowa handily in the Rose Bowl.

So the Vols would’ve advanced to the championship against Oklahoma.

They had plenty in common. UT lost quarterback Tony Robinson to an injury, and it won with its Orange Crush defense. Oklahoma lost quarterback Troy Aikman to an injury, and it won with a historic defense led by Butkus Award winner Brian Bosworth.

Oklahoma was the first team in major college football history to rank first or second in total defense, scoring defense, rush defense and pass defense in the same season. The Sooners would’ve defeated the Vols for the national title.

1989

Byes: 1 Colorado (Big 8), 2 Michigan (Big Ten), 3 Tennessee (SEC), 4 Arkansas (Southwest).

Rest of field: 5 Miami, 6 Notre Dame, 7 Florida State, 8 Nebraska, 9 Alabama, 10 Auburn, 11 USC (Pac-10), 12 Virginia (ACC).

Tennessee matchup: Quarterfinal vs Notre Dame/USC winner.

Prediction: UT would’ve drawn a tough matchup in Notre Dame. The Irish touted a lineup full of All-Americans, and they beat No. 1 Colorado in the Orange Bowl. So rather than beat Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl, the 1989 Vols would’ve been ousted in the quarterfinal. Reality sounds better in that instance.

1990

Byes: 1 Colorado (Big 8), 2 Georgia Tech (ACC), 3 Texas (Southwest), 4 Washington (Pac-10).

Rest of field: 5 Miami, 6 Notre Dame, 7 Florida State, 8 Penn State, 9 Tennessee (SEC), 10 Michigan (Big Ten), 11 BYU, 12 Clemson.

Tennessee matchup: First round at Penn State. Winner plays Colorado.

Prediction: Give Penn State the edge at home. The Vols would’ve preferred their Sugar Bowl win over Virginia than a playoff loss.

Otherwise, 1990 needed a playoff. Colorado and Georgia Tech split the national title despite imperfect seasons.

Georgia Tech tied North Carolina. Colorado tied UT, lost to Illinois and won two games in controversial endings. That included the infamous Fifth Down Game, when an officiating mistake gave the Buffaloes an extra play to score the game-winning TD.

Plus, Houston and Florida would’ve been left out of the playoff because they were on probation.

In a playoff, Miami would’ve beaten Notre Dame in the title game, atoning for a midseason loss to the Irish in South Bend. The Hurricanes were clearly playing well at the end of the year, judging from their 46-3 rout of Texas in the Cotton Bowl.

1991

Byes: 1 Washington (Pac-10), 2 Florida (SEC), 3 Michigan (Big Ten), 4 Texas A&M (Southwest).

Rest of field: 5 Miami, 6 Florida State, 7 Penn State, 8 Iowa, 9 Alabama, 10 Tennessee, 11 Nebraska (Big 8), 12 Clemson (ACC).

Tennessee matchup: First round at Penn State. Winner plays Florida.

Prediction: UT lost 42-16 to Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl. That takes the what-if question off the table.

Washington and Miami split the 1991 national title. Sports Illustrated imagined how a mythical national championship game would’ve gone. It made a strong case that Washington’s stout defense would’ve pulled out an 18-17 win. That seems fair.

1993

Byes: 1 Florida State (ACC), 2 Nebraska (Big 8), 3 West Virginia (Big East), 4 Texas A&M (Southwest).

Rest of field: 5 Notre Dame, 6 Tennessee, 7 Florida (SEC), 8 Wisconsin, 9 Miami, 10 Ohio State (Big Ten), 11 North Carolina, 12 Penn State.

Tennessee matchup: First round vs. North Carolina (at Neyland Stadium). Winner plays West Virginia.

Prediction: The Vols would’ve taken advantage of favorable matchups to reach a semifinal against Nebraska. If UT won, it would’ve faced Florida State in the national title game – that is, Heisman Trophy winner Charlie Ward vs. runner-up Shuler.

It certainly would’ve been better than where the Vols actually finished that season: A loss to Penn State in the Citrus Bowl.

But with undefeated Auburn on probation, we actually got a No. 1 vs. No. 2 game that year. Florida State beat Nebraska 18-16 in the Orange Bowl. So there’s no need to rewrite history.

1995

Byes: 1 Nebraska (Big 8), 2 Florida (SEC), 3 Northwestern (Big Ten), 4 Florida State (ACC).

Rest of field: 5 Tennessee, 6 Ohio State, 7 Notre Dame, 8 Colorado, 9 Texas (Southwest), 10 Kansas State, 11 Kansas, 12 Virginia Tech (Big East).

Tennessee matchup: First round vs. Virginia Tech (at Neyland Stadium). Winner plays Florida State.

Prediction: A regular-season loss to Florida wouldn’t have derailed UT's shot at a national title if a playoff had been in place. But Florida State also would’ve been in the mix despite suffering an upset to Virginia that year, which snapped its 29-0 all-time record in the ACC.

UT and Florida State would’ve met in the quarterfinal. The winner would’ve lost to Nebraska in the semifinal. The Cornhuskers, led by quarterback Tommie Frazier, were unbeatable.

In 1995, we actually got a No. 1 vs. No. 2 game in the Fiesta Bowl. Nebraska steamrolled Florida 62-24. The same game would’ve capped an otherwise entertaining playoff.

1996

Byes: 1 Florida State (ACC), 2 Arizona State (Pac-10), 3 Florida (SEC), 4 Ohio State (Big Ten).

Rest of field: 5 BYU (WAC), 6 Nebraska, 7 Penn State, 8 Colorado, 9 Tennessee, 10 Virginia Tech (Big East), 11 Northwestern, 12 North Carolina.

Tennessee matchup: First round at Colorado. Winner plays Florida State.

Prediction: Instead of routing Northwestern in the Citrus Bowl, the Vols would’ve won at Colorado with Manning tossing passes to Peerless Price, Joey Kent and Marcus Nash.

It would’ve set up a classic quarterfinal against Florida State, led by running back Warrick Dunn and linebacker Peter Boulware.

If the Vols lost that game or a semifinal to Ohio State or a championship game to Florida, would that have been better than winning the Citrus Bowl? That’s debatable. But Florida would’ve still won the title.

1997

Byes: 1 Michigan (Big Ten), 2 Nebraska (Big 12), 3 Tennessee (SEC), 4 Florida State (ACC).

Rest of field: 5 UCLA, 6 Florida, 7 North Carolina, 8 Washington State (Pac-10), 9 Ohio State, 10 Kansas State, 11 Penn State, 12 Syracuse (Big East).

Tennessee matchup: Quarterfinal vs. Florida/Penn State winner.

Prediction: Manning was 0-3 as a starter against Florida. So despite the Vols having a national title caliber team in 1997, an unlucky matchup against the Gators would’ve yielded the same result.

In 1997, Michigan and Nebraska split the national title according to the polls. In a playoff, they would’ve settled it on the field.

Michigan’s Charles Woodson won the Heisman that year. But the same high-scoring Cornhuskers that routed UT in the Orange Bowl would’ve beaten Michigan in Tom Osborne’s final game.

1998

Byes: 1 Tennessee (SEC), 2 Florida State (ACC), 3 Ohio State (Big Ten), 4 UCLA (Pac-10).

Rest of field: 5 Kansas State, 6 Texas A&M (Big 12), 7 Arizona, 8 Florida, 9 Wisconsin, 10 Tulane (C-USA), 11 Nebraska, 12 Virginia.

Tennessee matchup: Quarterfinal vs. Florida/Wisconsin winner

Prediction: The scary thing about replaying past seasons with a playoff is that UT could’ve lost its 1998 national title. But that wouldn’t be the case.

The 1998 Vols pulled out close games (see Syracuse and Florida games). They rallied in the fourth quarter (see Arkansas game and SEC title game against Mississippi State). They were deep and talented at all positions. And they played lockdown defense with tremendous leadership (see Al Wilson).

That’s a championship formula in any postseason format.

In the quarterfinal, the Vols would’ve beaten Florida again or been physical enough to beat Ron Dayne and Wisconsin. In the semifinal, their defense would’ve held down Cade McNown and the UCLA offense.

UT beat Florida State in the real 1998 championship. But with quarterback Chris Weinke injured, the Seminoles might not have made it. If not, the Vols would’ve beaten Ohio State for the title.

1999

Byes: 1 Florida State (ACC), 2 Virginia Tech (Big East), 3 Nebraska (Big 12), 4 Alabama (SEC).

Rest of field: 5 Tennessee, 6 Kansas State, 7 Wisconsin (Big Ten), 8 Michigan, 9 Michigan State, 10 Florida, 11 Penn State, 12 Marshall (MAC).

Tennessee matchup: First round vs. Marshall (at Neyland Stadium). Winner plays Alabama.

Prediction: Marshall, undefeated and led by former Knoxville Webb School star Chad Pennington, would be no pushover. But the Vols would’ve won in Neyland Stadium. And they beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa in 1999, so they also would've won at a neutral site.

That would’ve put UT into the semifinal against Florida State as a rematch of the 1998 national title game. The Seminoles were a healthier and more complete team in 1999 en route to a national championship, so the Vols’ run would’ve ended there.

2001

Byes: 1 Miami (Big East), 2 Colorado (Big 12), 3 Oregon (Pac-10), 4 Illinois (Big Ten).

Rest of field: 5 Nebraska, 6 Florida, 7 Tennessee, 8 Texas, 9 Stanford, 10 Maryland (ACC), 11 Oklahoma, 12 LSU (SEC).

Tennessee matchup: First round vs. Maryland (at Neyland Stadium). Winner plays Colorado.

Prediction: Casey Clausen, Travis Stephens, Donte Stallworth, Kelley Washington and Jason Witten would’ve torched the Terps. In the quarterfinal, John Henderson, Albert Haynesworth and Will Overstreet would’ve bulldozed Gary Barnett’s feel-good Colorado squad, which went 3-8 the previous year.

In the semifinal, the Vols would’ve faced Oregon’s Joey Harrington or Florida’s Rex Grossman. Perhaps UT would’ve reached the national title game, but no further. The 2001 Miami team featured 38 NFL Draft picks, including 17 first-rounders. The Hurricanes were national champions in any scenario.

2003

Byes: 1 LSU (SEC), 2 USC (Pac-10), 3 Michigan (Big Ten), 4 Florida State (ACC).

Rest of field: 5 Oklahoma, 6 Ohio State, 7 Texas, 8 Tennessee, 9 Miami (Big East), 10 Kansas State (Big 12), 11 Miami-Ohio, 12 Georgia.

Tennessee matchup: First round vs. Miami (at Neyland Stadium). Winner plays LSU.

Prediction: The Vols already won at Miami in 2003, so they would’ve won again at home. But they wouldn’t have advanced past Nick Saban’s LSU team, which won a controversial national champion in the BCS system.

LSU would have to beat UT, the Oklahoma/Florida State winner and USC in consecutive games at neutral sites to win the national title in this alternate reality. The USC team with Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush, Lendale White and Mike Williams would’ve won it instead.

2022

Byes: 1 Georgia (SEC), 2 Michigan (Big Ten), 3 Utah (Pac-12), 4 Clemson (ACC).

Rest of field: 5 TCU, 6 Ohio State, 7 Alabama, 8 Tennessee, 9 Penn State, 10 Kansas State (Big 12), 11 Washington, 12 Tulane (American).

Tennessee matchup: First round vs. Penn State (at Neyland Stadium). Winner plays Georgia.

Prediction: The Vols beat Clemson in the Orange Bowl without quarterback Hendon Hooker. They would’ve defeated Penn State but lost to Georgia again. And then Georgia would’ve blown out the TCU/Clemson winner and defeated Michigan en route to a national title.

Adam Sparks is the Tennessee football beat reporter. Email adam.sparks@knoxnews.com. Twitter @AdamSparks. Support strong local journalism by subscribing at knoxnews.com/subscribe.   

This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Would Tennessee football, Peyton Manning have made 12-team playoff?