Peterson's Iowa State football vs. BYU pick: Will Cyclones win in Utah?
How about this for a prediction:
The winner of Saturday’s Iowa State-BYU game qualifies for bowl eligibility. For the team that doesn’t win, reaching a bowl game will require an upset of somewhat major proportions.
Harsh?
Maybe, but that’s a reality about the 9:15 (ish) p.m. game at LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo, Utah.
Both teams are one win shy of the bowl-required six. Both teams have very tough closing schedules.
To the winner goes a bowl. To the non-winner? Finding a victory on the toughest two-game stretch on either team's schedule, that's what.
“We both have a lot to win and a lot to lose,” Cyclones receiver Dimitri Stanley said. “We’re both 5-4, both with big games coming up after this game.
“We’re both definitely looking for a win here. This win means as much to us as it would to them.”
More: Peterson: Fact, fiction & myth about BYU, where Iowa State plays very late Saturday night
Iowa State’s remaining games are against Texas at home and Kansas State on the road. BYU hosts Oklahoma and plays at Oklahoma State. Tough opponents, all of them.
“We’re going to have to find a way to compete against this team,” BYU coach Kalani Sitake said. “We need to match their fight. Both teams are sitting at 5-4, and we are both trying to be bowl-eligible. There is a lot to play for in this matchup.”
What does the Register’s Iowa State text group think about this game?
I have to believe that a Central time zone team playing a night game in the Mountain time zone has to be an advantage for BYU?
I would have to agree. I saw a statistic somewhere that mentioned the Cougars are 26-4 at home in games that start at 6 p.m. or later since 2019. During that same time frame, they’re 15-15 before 6.
Presumably that’s got something to do with the caliber of competition, but it’s in the minds of Iowa State players.
“We know what they are in night games,” Stanley said.
Iowa State coach Matt Campbell pooh-poohed any potential distractions about playing in a part of the United States where clocks are set one hour earlier than they are in Ames.
“I don’t know if it’s extra motivation,” CMC said Tuesday. “It’s just a reality. This team (BYU) is undefeated at home this year.”
It’s also reality that BYU is unbeaten at home against the likes of Sam Houston, Southern Utah, Cincinnati and Texas Tech. That’s not exactly high-level competition.
Which ISU team shows up, the one that opened the playbook in wins against Cincinnati and Baylor, or the one we saw against KU?
Reading between the lines with offensive coordinator Nate Scheelhaase on Tuesday – let’s lean toward the one that came out offensively rockin’ in the two most recent victories.
BYU hasn’t been great defensively, opponents getting 410.9 yards a game – 102nd nationally. The Cougars look to especially be rush-vulnerable; opponents average 174.7 ground yards a game. Iowa State actually has been decent over the past four games, averaging 143.8 rushing yards a game. That includes getting just 75 last Saturday against Kansas.
More: Here's what Matt Campbell said ahead of Iowa State football's matchup with BYU
Scheelhaase said Cyclone rushers were just a shoelace from breaking longer runs a few times against the Jayhawks. Eli Sanders and Cartevious Norton have been on top of their rushing games. I suspect that’ll be the game plan, sprinkled with Rocco Becht passes.
Sound familiar? It’s similar to the plan that worked against TCU, Cincinnati and Baylor.
Can Iowa State just pass on every play?
I actually kiddingly brought that up to Campbell after a press conference a while back. He said no way – or something to that effect.
Anyhow, if Rocco passed every play on Saturday, that game would take forever.
How about a couple passes to start the game, and if they work – keep them up until they don’t work. I can live with 65% passing, but 100%?
That’s a stretch.
Randy Peterson’s pick for Saturday’s Iowa State at BYU game
Iowa State (4-2, 5-4) at BYU (2-4, 5-4)
Time, TV, line: 9:15 p.m., ESPN, Iowa State by 7
Where Iowa State has an edge: Here’s another instance where the defense gives the Cyclones an edge. BYU’s rushing average of 79.7 yards a game, 129th nationally, should be no problem for a defense that’s decent against the rush. The Cyclones have faced teams with much better quarterbacking, regardless of who BYU starts.
Where BYU has an edge: Iowa State’s body clock will be off, which could eventually become a BYU advantage if Iowa State lets it. It'll be pushing 1 a.m. CT late in the fourth quarter. The Cyclones are preparing for two quarterbacks – veteran Kedon Slovis and transfer Jake Retzlaff. “Everybody that is coming off injury - they just don’t jump into a starting role (again),” Sitake said of Slovis, who had an elbow injury. “You have to earn the right to get that back.” Slovis is more of a traditional drop-back passer, while Retzlaff has better mobility.
Prediction: The Cyclones are on a two-quarter roll, with 18 second-half points after trailing 21-3 in a loss against Kansas last Saturday. If the offense is in sync from the start, which it wasn’t against the Jayhawks, then a third Big 12 road win in a row just might happen. IOWA STATE 30, BYU 17.
Saturday’s other Big 12 games
Texas Tech (3-3, 4-5) at No 16 Kansas (4-2, 7-2)
Time, TV, line: 11 a.m., FS1, Kansas by 4
Prediction: With consecutive victories against Oklahoma and Iowa State, I don’t envision the Jayhawks Express derailing just yet. Still, they can’t treat this game as a warmup for hosting Kansas State the following Saturday. KANSAS 27, TEXAS TECH 17.
Baylor (2-4, 3-6) at No. 25 Kansas State (4-2, 6-3)
Time, TV, line: 2 p.m, ESPN+, Kansas State by 20½
Prediction: Just two seasons ago, Baylor tied Oklahoma for the Big 12’s regular-season championship. My, how the mighty have fallen. Dave Aranda’s coaching job probably isn’t in jeopardy yet – unless the Bears lose remaining games against Kansas State, TCU and West Virginia. The Wildcats need a win to stay in the conference title conversation. KANSAS STATE 34, BAYLOR 17.
No. 15 Oklahoma State (5-1, 7-2) at UCF (1-5, 4-5)
Time, TV, line: 2:30 p.m., ESPN, Oklahoma State by 2½
Prediction: I still wonder what took so long for Mike Gundy to make Alan Bowman the starting quarterback. The Cowboys have won five games in a row with Bowman. They’re among the favorites to play someone like Texas in the Big 12 Conference championship game. That’s conference coach of the year stuff, folks. OKLAHOMA STATE 30, UCF 21.
West Virginia (4-2, 6-3) at No. 17 Oklahoma (4-2, 7-2)
Time, TV, line: 6 p.m., FOX, Oklahoma by 12½
Prediction: Two losses in a row, albeit on the road against Kansas and Oklahoma State, isn’t exactly cutting it with Sooners fans. There’s still a chance for redemption – playing in the Big 12’s title game, but a losing streak must suddenly become three wins in a row. That starts against a West Virginia team that wasn’t highly thought-of at season’s start. OKLAHOMA 34, WEST VIRGINIA 27.
Cincinnati (0-6, 2-7) at Houston (2-4, 4-5)
Time, TV, line: 6 p.m., FS1, Houston by 2
Prediction: Has any team fallen further than Cincinnati, which went from the 2021 College Football Playoff to 0-6 in its first venture into Big 12 under new coach Scott Satterfield? The Bearcats’ game at Houston is an opportunity to at least salvage something from what’s been an otherwise bad season. If that happens, how much longer does Dana Holgorsen remain Houston’s coach? HOUSTON 27, CINCINNATI 24.
No. 7 Texas (5-1, 8-1) at TCU (2-5, 4-5)
Time, TV, line: 6:30 p.m., ABC, Texas by 10
Prediction: Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers could return sooner than expected after suffering a shoulder injury. No one’s expecting TCU to pose much of a threat, regardless of who calls signals for Sark’s team. They’re on a mission – first, winning the Big 12 Conference championship game, then advancing to the College Football Playoff. TEXAS 34, TCU 20.
Iowa State columnist Randy Peterson is in his 51st year writing sports for the Des Moines Register. Reach him at rpeterson@dmreg.com, on X @RandyPete, and at DesMoinesRegister.com/CyclonesTexts
This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Iowa State football vs. BYU game preview and Big 12 game predictions
