Peterson: Where Iowa State basketball fits among Big 12's legitimate title contenders
AMES – It’s nearing time for yet another Big 12 Conference men’s basketball tournament, this annual wonderful time of year when thousands of the most loyal Iowa State fans invade downtown Kansas City and the popular Power and Light entertainment district.
Your interest in the conference standings is starting to peak. You’re a fan of the website on which your prediction of games quickly reveals one of a gazillion end-of-season outcomes. You continue the process, this time with different winners and losers, until your eyes are blurry.
Yes, for all the right reasons, interest is as high in the Iowa State program as I’ve sensed in a long, long time – possibly as far back as Larry Eustachy’s 2000-01 team, which won the regular season with a 13-3 record, then went on to become a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
This season, T.J. Otzelberger's team is ranked sixth nationally. The Cyclones are an analytics darling. They’re a very good team that has made playing lockdown defense fun to watch – and right now, it’s a team that must do something it hasn’t had to do in a while.
What's that, you ask? Not allowing Monday’s tough loss at second-ranked Houston, a game that sometimes looked more like tackle football, become a two-in-a-row losing streak. The Cyclones will try to start a winning streak during Saturday’s 1 p.m. game against West Virginia at Hilton Coliseum.
That’s what’s first and foremost on Otzelberger’s mind; he can’t afford to peek ahead. He’ll let others concern themselves with all the what happens if scenarios.
“You probably need to be playing your best basketball right now,” he said, speaking generally about one ingredient that goes into winning a conference title.
Among the most likely contenders – Houston is on a four-game winning streak heading into Saturday’s game at Baylor. No one else comes even close to matching that. That’s how roller-coaster-like this league can be.
More: Peterson: Iowa State basketball has nothing to be ashamed of after loss at No. 2 Houston
Here’s a glance at the five teams with the best chance to win the regular-season title:
Houston (10-3, 25-3): at Baylor Saturday, vs. Cincinnati, at Oklahoma, at UCF, vs. Kansas.
Iowa State (9-4, 20-6): vs. West Virginia Saturday, vs Oklahoma, at UCF, vs. BYU, at Kansas State.
Kansas (8-5, 20-6): vs. Texas Saturday, vs. BYU, at Baylor, vs. Kansas State, at Houston.
Baylor (8-5, 19-7): vs. Houston Saturday, at TCU, vs. Kansas, vs. Texas, at Texas Tech.
Texas Tech (8-5, 19-7): at UCF, vs. Texas, at West Virginia, at Oklahoma State, vs. Baylor.
“I honestly can’t tell you where everybody sits in the standings,” Otzelberger said Thursday. “You play an imbalanced schedule. Everybody has a hard schedule, some harder than others.”
Using the top five teams as our control group, who has the easiest road to the conference tournament’s No. 1 seed?
Houston: Operative numbers are 31 league wins among its remaining five opponents, and three road games. The Cougars’ push to the finish starts at 11 a.m. Saturday at Baylor in what should be one humdinger of a game.
Iowa State: Remaining opponents have a combined 26 Big 12 victories, thus giving Otzelberger's team the perceived cleanest path to at least sharing a title. At Kansas State will be an intriguing regular-season finale, given Wildcats coach Jerome Tang’s ludicrous comments that someone connected to the Cyclone team was filming timeout huddles. Big 12 officials, by the way, still haven't responded to multiple messages asking if they are investigating, which leads me to think they, too, thought the accusation was ridiculous.
More: Big 12 basketball power rankings: Is Houston's Jamal Shead the top player in conference?
Texas Tech: Three road games at the conference’s bottom three teams. Regular season at home against Baylor could be interesting. Total Big 12 wins among the Red Raiders’ closing opponents? That’d be 26, but remember, they’re two games behind the others heading into Saturday.
Kansas: Two tough road games against Baylor and Houston. Additionally, Jayhawks opponents have 36 conference wins, second-most among opponents remaining for the contenders.
Baylor: Statistically the toughest Big 12 closing act includes games against opponents with 39 league wins, starting with Saturday’s home game against Houston. The Bears also are two games behind the leader.
As for Iowa State on Saturday, the Cyclones have won 15 home games in a row, and seven of their last nine games overall. They finished the Houston trip on a roll, making 7-of-9 second-half three-point shots. They outrebounded (by nine) one of the nation’s best rebounding teams.
And we all know how Otzelberger’s team has fared after losses this season. The Cyclones responded from losing at Oklahoma with a win at home against Houston. They lost at BYU, then won at TCU. They lost at Baylor, then won at Texas.
Translated: Iowa State is 3-0 after the adversity of losing a conference game, and yes, adversity will happen in the Big 12. It’s all about how you respond – and maybe even a smidge of a motivational push.
“West Virginia beat us twice last year,” Otzelberger reminded reporters Thursday. “That sticks with you. There was a point last year around this time, and they came in and beat us. I remember that.”
He’s referring to a 72-69 loss at Hilton Coliseum on Feb. 27, 2023, a game that was so physical that it included a minor to-do, four technical fouls, 45 total fouls and 41 free throws during two-and-a-half hours of intense action.
“I know that you have to be at your best every single night in this league,” Otzelberger said. “There’s no surprises. It’s not a surprise when, if you’re not ready to play and you’re not at your best, you’re going to get beat.”
Iowa State columnist Randy Peterson is in his 52nd year writing sports for the Des Moines Register. Reach him at rpeterson@dmreg.com, on X @RandyPete, and at DesMoinesRegister.com/CyclonesTexts
This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Can Iowa State win the Big 12 men's basketball championship? See how
