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Randy Peterson's Iowa State football vs. Texas game preview, prediction

AMES – Here we go. The final countdown.

Will Iowa State go 2-0 during this two-Saturday sprint to the finish?

Will someone upset Oklahoma and/or Oklahoma State a time or two?

Can the Big 12’s tie-breaker formula be any more confusing? And possibly even a smidge unfair in some cases?

Iowa State Cyclones head coach Matt Campbell gets a congratulation from Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian after winning 30-7 at Jack Trice Stadium in 2021. The two coaches will face off again Saturday night in Ames.
Iowa State Cyclones head coach Matt Campbell gets a congratulation from Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian after winning 30-7 at Jack Trice Stadium in 2021. The two coaches will face off again Saturday night in Ames.

Fans can concentrate on the Cyclones’ postseason drama all they want. The players and coaches, however, are focused on Texas and only Texas.

I repeat something written earlier: Iowa State’s football team is so young, that their concentration is on making every practice repetition better than their previous one, all while finding enough time to be first- or second-year college students.

They’re determined to make Saturday’s 7 p.m. game on FOX against Texas at Jack Trice Stadium a memorable occasion for seniors playing their final game in Ames. They’ll leave with a legacy that includes bowl trips in every season except 2022, and if that includes adding to the chaos that is the Big 12's conference championship game formula, then so be it.

More: Peterson: Yes, Iowa State football can prepare for the future during a successful present

That’s where their mind is, and we heard it very late on Nov. 11 – after a 45-13 victory at BYU -- from quarterback Rocco Becht.

“The next one’s for them,” he said. “They (the seniors) set the standard.”

There’s a lot at stake Saturday night – Texas’ final trip to Ames, at least for a while, notwithstanding. Sending the seniors out with another home victory against the Longhorns, staying relevant in the Big 12 title chase, another learning experience for the many freshmen...you name it, Saturday night's game has it.

“You’re playing, obviously, an incredibly exceptional football team coming in here,” said Iowa State coach Matt Campbell on Tuesday. “Our kids understand where we want to be. We’ve said it since Day 1; we don’t need to talk about those things. We need to prove it.”

What’s on the minds of The Register’s Iowa State text group?

A competent start is a must. How does that happen?

If I was calling plays, that would start with throwing against a defense that’s not been great at defending the pass. Becht has completed 49 of 79 passes for 682 yards and five touchdowns during Iowa State’s most recent three victories. Those completions have gone to 10 different receivers. That’s where it starts, and if that gets going, then maybe the running game opens against what players and coaches feel will be the best run defense Iowa State has faced this season. An early turnover, like what happened against BYU, would help, too, but Texas is no BYU.

Looks like temps will be low 30's. How has Texas played in cold weather this year?

Low 30s, huh? Cool. Longhorns’ games this season have ranged from 99 degrees at kickoff in the opener against Rice, to 61 last Saturday at TCU. Digging deeper, starting-game temp during the nine games Texas has played in Ames (recent-to-oldest) are: 63, 49, 72, 69, 70, 66, 58, 65, and 69. Iowa State has played this season in temps ranging from 90 degrees at Oklahoma to 43 at BYU. Remember, most football teams practice indoors at this time of season.

If safety Jeremiah Cooper can't play, will Iowa State blitz more, in an attempt to get more pressure on the quarterback?

Iowa State safety Jeremiah Cooper, running for a pick-6 against UNI, might return from a lower leg injury on Saturday.
Iowa State safety Jeremiah Cooper, running for a pick-6 against UNI, might return from a lower leg injury on Saturday.

The Cyclones aren’t a blitz-heavy team, regardless of who's playing. I don’t anticipate that changing Saturday for two reasons: Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers is healthy again, and he’s passing to possibly the best group of receivers in the country. Maybe there will be a few surprises, but mostly, I expect Iowa State not to tinker with what has been a mostly successful pass defense.

Randy Peterson’s pick for Saturday’s Texas at Iowa State game

No. 7 Texas (9-1, 6-1) at Iowa State (6-4, 5-2)

Time, TV, line: 7 p.m., FOX, Texas by 8

Where Iowa State has an edge: Texas’ No. 1 running back, Jonathan Brooks, suffered a season-ending ACL tear last Saturday against TCU. He had 1,035 yards and eight touchdowns on 166 carries this season, and now he’ll be replaced by true freshman C.J. Baxter. It’s not exactly a one-for-one swap, but Baxter has 390 yards on 87 carries for an impressive 4.5 average per rush. Does this mean more Ewers passes? If so, he’ll be doing it against a defense with 15 interceptions – the second-most in college football.

More: Iowa State football’s T.J. Tampa becomes one of the nation's best defenders

Where Texas has an edge: Longhorns opponents have rushed for an average of just 90.1 yards a game. That’s ninth-best nationally against the run. “It’s going be the best defensive line we’ve played all season,” Becht said. “We’re really going to have to be physical on them with the offensive line. I know they will.”

Prediction: Iowa State has beaten Texas three of the most recent four times the teams have met at Jack Trice Stadium, so there’s that. The Longhorns are knee-deep in the College Football Playoff chase, so there’s that, too. If this game was played any other time than at night at Jack Trice Stadium, I’d probably say Texas wins. For this game, though, I like the Cyclones under the lights and fireworks on Senior Night. I like Becht having his best game, against a defense that’s allowed 247.0 passing yards a game. IOWA STATE 27, TEXAS 24

Saturday's other Big 12 games

No. 14 Oklahoma (8-2, 5-2) at BYU (5-5, 2-5)

Time, TV, line: 11 a.m., ESPN, Oklahoma by 24

Prediction: We thought Iowa State had a name-that-score game at BYU last Saturday, and we were right. This time, there’s another of those games in Provo – times three. If Oklahoma can hang 59 on West Virginia (which it did last Saturday), then the Sooners at BYU could be worse. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel passed for a season-high 423 yards and five touchdowns against the Mountaineers. He’ll torch the Cougars, too, if allowed. OKLAHOMA 48, BYU 3

Cincinnati (3-7, 1-6) at West Virginia (6-4, 4-3)

Time, TV, line: 1:30 p.m., ESPN+, West Virginia by 6 ½

Prediction: West Virginia has won four of its last five home games, while the newcomers are 3-11 in Big 12 venues. One of the wins is Cincinnati’s success of UCF in a battle of two teams that haven't bee the greatest. The Bearcats winning again on the road? Not happening on West Virginia’s senior night. WEST VIRGINIA 27, CINCINNATI 10   

Baylor (3-7, 2-5) at TCU (4-6, 2-5)

Time, TV, line: 2:30 p.m., ESPN+, TCU by 12 ½

Prediction: Jimbo Fisher: Gone. Zach Arnett: Gone. Baylor’s Dave Aranda? One of the top coaching candidates for high-profile jobs a while back, he’s certainly on the hot seat these days. After losing four of the past five games, some Bears fans are antsy for a change. The chances of that talk subsiding after Saturday aren’t very good. TCU 34, BAYLOR 17

No. 23 Oklahoma State (7-3, 5-2) at Houston (4-6, 2-5)

Time, TV, line: 3 p.m., ESPN2, Oklahoma State by 7

Prediction: There’s still so much out there for Oklahoma State, despite last Saturday’s surprising 42-point loss against 5-5 UCF. Mike Gundy’s team losing to below-mediocre Houston on Saturday? The storyline here is how long Cougars' head coach Dana Holgorsen keeps his job. Their first season in the Big 12 has been bad. They even lost at home against Cincinnati last Saturday. That’s where this program is right now. Can you say Hot Seat? OKLAHOMA STATE 37, HOUSTON 15

UCF (5-5, 2-5) at Texas Tech (5-5, 4-3)

Time, TV, line: 4 p.m., FS2, Texas Tech by 2 ½

Prediction: This could be a 100-point game; both teams have that much scoring potential, plus, neither team plays great defense.  Texas Tech is coming off a big upset at Kansas. UCF just beat Oklahoma State. TEXAS TECH 48, UCF 45

No. 21 Kansas State (7-3, 5-2) at No. 25 Kansas (7-3, 4-3)

Time, TV, line: 6 p.m., FS1, Kansas State by 7 ½

Prediction: With Kansas’ iffy quarterback situation and Kansas State still having a shot at a Big 12 championship game return – there’s more at stake for the Wildcats. Kansas State is coming off hanging 59 points against hapless Baylor. Coach Chris Klieman’s offense is on a roll. KANSAS STATE 34, KANSAS 27

This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Iowa State football: Randy Peterson's game preview and prediction