Penn State football rooting guide for Week 13

As Penn State prepares for its final game of the regular season this weekend at home against Michigan State, the bowl picture is starting to come into focus for the Nittany Lions. The most recent College Football Playoff rankings released Tuesday night have Penn State sitting just on the outside of the top 10 at No. 11 and a path to a New Years Six bowl game has become a bit tougher to navigate as a result.

Our look at some of the most recent bowl projections this week saw a pretty common theme. Penn State heading to the Citrus Bowl to face Ole Miss was the trendy option this week, with only a couple of outliers, including one projection for the Orange Bowl.

But if you are a Pen State fan still holding out hope to see your team play in a New Years Six bowl game, there is still reason to believe it could happen. Of course, Penn State still has to take care of its own business first this weekend and not leave any doubt against the Spartans, who come to Happy Valley this weekend as a heavy underdog.

But what else needs to happen to help Penn State get into the Cotton Bowl, Orange Bowl, or even the Rose Bowl? Penn State needs some help from unlikely sources this weekend, but the sport of college football can deliver unexpected results any given Saturday.

Our goal here is to check out the teams ranked ahead of Penn State that would really help out the Nittany Lions by taking a loss to allow upward movement in the playoff rankings. Why is this important? The Orange Bowl takes an ACC representative (likely its champion) and pairs it against the highest-ranked team available from the Big Ten, SEC, or Notre Dame. The Cotton Bowl also takes two at-large options, likely including the Group of 5 representatives. With three SEC schools and two Pac-12 schools ranked ahead of Penn State going into the final weekend, that leaves those paths blocked at the moment. And there is also the wild card of No. 13 Notre Dame creeping up the rankings, but we’ll talk about the Irish in a moment.

Here is what Penn State fans should be rooting for this weekend to improve Penn State’s bowl outlook. Let’s start with the big one in the Big Ten.

Ohio State or Michigan? Now this is a tough one, right?

Penn State fans have no love for Ohio State or Michigan, and having to pick between the two feels like a trick question. But Penn State’s path to a New Years Six bowl game opens up in a big way if the Buckeyes and Wolverines are both in the College Football Playoff. That would leave the Rose Bowl wide open for the next highest-ranked Big Ten team, and Penn State is the only other option on the radar in that scenario.

The suggestion here is to root for Michigan to win, but for this to be an incredibly close contest that is decided on the final play of the game. With Ohio State and Michigan at No. 2 and No. 3, respectively, that could likely mean some minimal changes in the way the selection committee views these two teams. Michigan would move up to No. 2 at the minimum (we’re just leaving Georgia losing out of our imagination entirely) and Ohio State would drop. But how far?

Ohio State could have a pair of good quality wins on their resume at the end of the season with wins over Penn State and Notre Dame, but needing Ohio State to end in the top four may still need a little bit of help. Fortunately, for our purposes here, they’re going to get it.

Let's talk about TCU

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It may be flying under the radar a bit here for some, but TCU is still a bit of an issue because it is occupying one of those College Football Playoff spots at the moment. The No. 4 Horned Frogs taking a loss would certainly provide the two-Big Ten playoff scenario a security blanket, although that outlook could still benefit from a little more help. But seeing TCU get knocked out of the playoff and into the Big 12’s tie-in spot with the Sugar Bowl certainly helps.

It’s nothing personal, TCU, but Penn State fans are rooting for Iowa State this weekend. And if not this weekend, then prepare to pull for either No. 24 Texas or No. 15 Kansas State in the Big 12 championship game, with the Longhorns being the preferred option for these purposes.

Anyone want to Volunteer a loss?

Syndication: The Knoxville News-Sentinel

Let’s move forward with the understanding that Georgia is going to the College Football Playoff. Barring a completely shocking ending to the season against Georgia Tech and the SEC title game, we can feel pretty good about the Dawgs getting a chance to defend their national title reign. But the other SEC teams are getting in the way.

A reminder that the Orange Bowl takes the highest-ranked team available from the Big Ten, SEC or Notre Dame to face its ACC representative, which is on track to be its champion (perhaps Clemson). As the current College Football Playoff standings sit, Georgia would be in the College Football Playoff, LSU would take the SEC’s spot in the Sugar Bowl, Alabama would be the highest-ranked option available for the Orange Bowl, and Tennessee would be selected for a spot in the Cotton Bowl before Penn State even gets a look.

So this weekend, we’re pulling for some big-time help from some unlikely options.

Let’s start with Tennessee, the biggest thorn in Penn State’s paw at the moment. The Vols take on rival Vanderbilt this weekend in Nashville. They will do so without star quarterback and Heisman Trophy candidate Hendon Hooker, who suffered a season-ending injury last weekend in a loss at South Carolina. Vanderbilt is coming off a big win over Florida and needs this win to become bowl eligible. But Tennessee is still a better team overall despite giving up 63 points last weekend. Unless the Vols just collapse with their shot at the playoff up in dust, we’ll probably not be counting on Vandy to lend a helping hand here on Saturday night.

With Tennessee just one spot ahead of Penn State and without its star quarterback, there is a possibility Penn State could sneak ahead of the Vols even if Tennessee wins, although that may be unlikely. If Tennessee struggles and Penn State mops the floor with Michigan State, a case could be made to move Penn State ahead given how the teams have played the last couple of weeks. But the Vols have something Penn State does not, and that is some high-quality wins over LSU and Alabama. If comparing wins against teams ranked at the time they were played, it’s a no-brainer as Tennessee has four wins against teams ranked at the time and Penn State has zero.

So, go Vandy.

War Eagle!

Michael Chang/Getty Images

Remember that team that Penn State ran right over and through back in Week 3 down south? Yeah, Penn State needs them more than ever now. Auburn is a heavy underdog in this year’s edition of the Iron Bowl at Alabama, and the program is a bit of a mess after firing its head coach during the season. Expecting the Tigers to pull it all together and score a major upset at Alabama is probably too much to ask.

But it’s the Iron Bowl. All bets are off. An Auburn victory would hand Alabama its third loss of the season and sink the No. 7 Crimson Tide well below Penn State, thus opening up a potential landing spot in the Orange Bowl, with the Cotton Bowl as a solid backup option.

C'mon Jimbo, earn that contract!

Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

The other SEC hurdle in Penn State’s way is LSU, but the good news is there is a decent chance LSU takes a loss before the end of the season. LSU is heading to the SEC championship game next week to take on Georgia, but in order for LSU to be in the playoff conversation next week, it needs to avoid a massive upset on the road against Texas A&M.

LSU is currently in line for the Sugar Bowl as the SEC representative, and that can still happen with a loss suffered this week or next. But it would be in Penn State’s best interest if the Tigers could just take a loss this week at unranked Texas A&M to move LSU into the rearview mirror of the Nittany Lions, just to play it safe.

But there is something to be said for a two-SEC team College Football Playoff that really helps out Penn State. If TCU takes a hit, a two-SEC team and two-Big Ten team playoff field would be great for Penn State. But until TCU takes a loss, go ahead and root for the Tigers to take their own “L” this weekend in College Station. Jimbo Fisher has to do SOMETHING to earn his paycheck, right?

OK, what about Notre Dame?

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Notre Dame is set to close out its season this weekend out on the west coast against future Big Ten member USC. the Irish come into the week ranked No. 15 in the College Football Playoff rankings, and the Trojans sit at No. 6 with a vision of cracking into the playoff field for the first time. So who should Penn State be rooting for this weekend?

The quick answer would seem to be Notre Dame for a few reasons. First, it throws USC out of the playoff picture and helps keep the scenario for two SEC or two Big Ten teams in the playoff, if not both, which comes to Penn State’s advantage in multiple ways as outlined above. But Penn State doesn’t really need to jump USC as long as the Trojans are heading to the Rose Bowl, so the Trojans losing this weekend doesn’t matter too much at first glance. Especially if that means Notre Dame jumps ahead of Penn State in the process.

The catch here is Ohio State can have its playoff resume boosted by having Notre Dame ranked as highly as it can go. And if Penn State wins this weekend, the Buckeyes could potentially have two victories over teams finishing the year in the top 10 (with a little help perhaps). And if Ohio State were to lose a close game against Michigan, those quality wins under Ohio State’s belt could come back to push the Buckeyes into the playoff. So a Notre Dame win this weekend may not be all that bad for Penn State in the long run.

It’s risky, but Penn State fans should be hoping for no Pac-12 team to reach the College Football Playoff, so having USC lose this weekend helps. And thus, rooting for Notre Dame could be a necessary evil.

UNLESS…

Chaos reigns in the Civil War and the Apple Cup

Syndication: The Register Guard

There is another path to the Pac-12 hurting itself and helping out Penn State in the process. No. 9 Oregon is the second Pac-12 team ranked ahead of Penn State, and that could block a path to a New Years Six bowl spot in the Cotton Bowl. But Oregon needs to win this weekend at rival Oregon State to get a crack at USC.

Before USC and Notre Dame kick off in the evening, Oregon and Oregon State will be about to wrap up their rivalry game. If you think Oregon has the best chance to knock off USC in the Pac-12 championship game, then go ahead and root for Oregon State.

But then there is No. 13 Washington, looming just behind Penn State and ready to sneak in if given the chance. The Huskies are also on the road for a rivalry game, the Apple Cup against Washington State. If Oregon loses, then Washington can slide in.

The best-case scenario for Penn State? USC beats Notre Dame, Oregon loses to Oregon State, and Washington loses to Washington State to allow Oregon to play for the Pac-12 championship, but USC loses to Oregon in next week’s Pac-12 Championship Game. Two ranked teams ahead of Penn State then fall behind them and the two coming up on them from behind fall farther back.

Story originally appeared on Nittany Lions Wire