Patriots vs Falcons: Five Key Matchups to Watch
Each week the game comes down to the match-ups. These are the top five matchups that will determine which team emerges victorious.
The New England Patriots came from behind (as seems to happen each week in 2017) to win a contested contest last week against their AFC East rival New York Jets. Their Super Bowl 51 opponent the Atlanta Falcons travel to Foxboro, MA after being embarrassed at home by the Jay Cutler led Miami Dolphins last week.
Atlanta led 17-0 against Miami and seemed to have the game in hand at halftime. Despite missing Mohamed Sanu and Atlanta lost their second consecutive game at home to an AFC East opponent as they previously lost to the Buffalo Bills 23-17 in week four.
Last week, the Miami Dolphins scored 20 unanswered points in the second half to come back and beat the Falcons 20-17, falling to 3-2 on the year.
Add in a close win against Detroit and almost losing in week one to the Bears, the Falcons have seemingly been hit by the Super Bowl hangover.
This week’s matchup will be broadcast nationally by NBC and can be seen on NBC Boston – 10 or on NBC Providence on WJAR in Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts. Al Michaels handles the play-by-play duties with former Cincinnati Bengals Hall-of-Fame wide receiver Cris Collinsworth as the color analyst. Michele Tafoya will work from the sidelines.
On the radio, this week’s game will be broadcast to a national audience on Westwood One. Kevin Kugler and one the best NFL analysts Mike Mayock will call the game. Locally, the Patriots’ flagship station 98.5 FM the Sports Hub will carry the game on the Patriots Radio Network. The Patriots are on the radio on 40 stations throughout the nation and features broadcasters Bob Socci doing play-by-play and local media member and former Patriots backup quarterback Scott Zolak adding color.
Now that you know how to watch and listen to the game, here are the five key matchups to watch that will determine if the Patriots continue their winning ways against the Atlanta Falcons or if former Boston College Eagles quarterback Matt Ryan returns to the Boston area and pulls out the victory on the road.
AROUND COVER32
Chuck Pagano’s seat is as hot as it’s ever been
Previewing the Jaguars’ divisional matchup with the Colts
Making some observations on how the Texans played on Week 6
Notes on the latest in Titans news
Ranking the 10 biggest injuries of the 2017 NFL season (so far)
1. NE CB Malcolm Butler and CB Johnson Badamosi vs ATL WR Julio Jones
The New England Patriots cornerbacks trying to slow down Atlanta’s All-Pro wide receiver was easily the most talked about matchup heading into Super Bowl 51. Everyone wanted to know just how the Patriots planned to cover Julio Jones? For Jones, it was bracket coverage with safety Duron Harmon or Devin McCourty over the top and Eric Rowe or Logan Ryan in coverage.
Logan Ryan is in Tennessee in 2017 after signing as a free agent and Eric Rowe is not going to play on Sunday after not practicing again all week due to a groin injury. Add in free agent acquisition Stephon Gilmore out again this week with a concussion and the secondary is paper-thin. That leaves Malcolm Butler, Johnson Badamosi, and special teams ace/slot cornerback Jonathan Jones to try and slow down Julio Jones.
The expectation is that the best cornerback for New England–Malcolm Butler–will cover the best receiver for Atlanta–Jones. However, as happened in Super Bowl 51, it is not a move that the New England defense under Matt Patricia traditionally would do.
With Gilmore out, Butler would usually cover the top receiver–but only when there is not a significant size difference. With a long-armed finesse receiver like Jones, the Patriots traditionally try a different tactic. This year against big receivers like Michael Thomas in New Orleans, Kelvin Benjamin against Carolina and Mike Evans for Tampa Bay, it was Gilmore or Rowe playing a mix of zone and aggressive man coverage with safety help (either Devin McCourty or Duron Harmon) over the top.
What is likely is when Atlanta has three receivers on the field Bademosi–with his size and strength–will be on Jones with safety help, Butler will be on Justin Hardy (as Mohamed Sanu is expected to be out again) and Jonathan Jones will be in the slot using his impressive speed to try and lock down third-receiver Taylor Gabriel. With two receivers and a tight end, look for the man-coverage to have Bademosi on Jones and Butler on Hardy with McCourty or Patrick Chung taking on impressive young tight end Austin Hooper.
Either way, Butler will get his share of coverage on Jones and New England is not going to mix in plenty zone looks and not play man-to-man coverage the entire game. The Patriots have been incorporating zone looks a lot in 2017 in an attempt to simplify the defense and Butler will find himself responsible for Jones during those times as well.
Jones has 25 receptions on 37 targets for 367 yards good for 14.7 yards per reception average. However, through five games he has amazingly failed to find the end zone. Even so, this is a big test for the banged-up New England secondary. New England needs to slow Jones and force Atlanta to find third or fourth options and increase the likelihood of drops, bad routes, and turnovers.
2. NE T Marcus Cannon and T Nate Solder vs ATL DE/OLB Brooks Reed and DE/OLB Vic Beasley
The big question for the Atlanta Falcons’ defense is how they choose to attack quarterback Tom Brady after the way he picked them apart in the second half of last season’s Super Bowl 51. Actually, the Patriots moved the ball well in the first half as well and it was LeGarrette Blount fumble and a rare pick-six out of Brady that really swung the momentum early.
Brady, at age 40, appears more mobile than ever and has continued his unparalleled success despite having been sacked more in six weeks than he was in 12 weeks last season. However, there still seems is one tried-and-true method to slow the New England passing offense and that is to generate pressure with the front four and flood the secondary.
Last year the Falcons’ defense had 15.5 sacks from edge rusher Vic Beasley and 11.5 sacks from the rest of the defense but had a huge game out of defensive tackle Grady Jarrett in the Super Bowl. Jarrett has yet to notch a sack this season and Beasley has started just one game due to injury and has just two of the 12 sacks by Atlanta in 2017.
Beasley is a talented edge-rusher but he is not often used as a mobile piece in the defense. In fact, even when healthy he is often on the sidelines on early downs. The Falcons have combatted their lack of pass rush with Beasley sidelined with a blitz attack designed to get pressure from multiple defenders. Eight different players have sacks for Atlanta with outside linebacker Brooks Reed leading the team with three sacks.
Tom Brady is at the point of his career where conventional blitzing is suicide for a defense. The Falcons need to dial up something new or else flood the passing lanes and get pressure with their defensive front four or five.
Brooks Reed has three sacks so far after having just two in 2016 and will be going against Nate Solder. It is a tough matchup for the veteran Reed as Solder has picked up his play recently after a slow start to 2017. Reed spent much of the Super Bowl watching Dwight Freeney causing havoc against Solder.
On the other side, Marcus Cannon was one of the best right tackles in the league in 2016 but an ankle injury has slowed him early in the season as he tries to fight through it. Beasley struggled against Cannon last year in the Super Bowl and like Solder has in the past few weeks Cannon is finally hitting his stride. Cannon has used his excellent footwork to get his huge body in position to simply overpower edge rushers like Beasley who are usually 100 pounds lighter.
If Cannon and Solder can hold off Reed and Beasley, it could be a long day for the Atlanta defense.
3. NE TE Rob Gronkowski vs ATL ILB De’Vondre Campbell and S Deion Jones
Remember, in Super Bowl 51 he was not playing and New England still found a way to win. “He” is All-Pro tight end Rob Gronkowski. He is a handful to cover and now will get his first shot at taking on the talented Atlanta linebackers and safeties. First up is coverage linebacker De’Vondre Campbell.
Atlanta’s dynamic safety/linebacker Deion Jones will get his chances to test himself and try and cover the best tight end in the NFL as well. Last week the duo did a number on Miami tight end Julius Thomas, but Thomas is not even close to being in the same league as Gronkowksi. Gronkowski is off the injury report and should play the entire game on Sunday night. After missing the Thursday night win over Tampa Bay, he came back against the Jets and shredded the ultra-athletic rookie safety Jamal Adams and second-year linebacker Darron Lee. Gronkowski hauled in a pair of touchdown passes and finished with six catches for 83 yards.
Gronkowski is so difficult to cover as he is massive (six-foot-six and 265 pounds of solid muscle) and has deceptive straight-line speed and short-space quickness. In addition, he is a precision route-runner, uses his long arms, leaping ability, athleticism and length to wall off defenders and then his brute strength to pick-up extra yards after the catch.
The Falcons have the team speed to try and swarm Gronkowski with their quick cornerbacks, strong safeties, and athletic linebackers. De’Vondre Campbell is expected to be the primary coverage linebacker to draw the duty of trying to stop Gronkowski.
Campbell was last seen by the Patriots in overtime of Super Bowl 51 mugging tight end Martellus Bennett and setting up the winning rush by James White. Campbell overall had a good game and did manage to limit Bennett much of the game until the costly pass interference penalty.
However, slowing down Martellus Bennett is one thing. Slowing down Rob Gronkowski is entirely different. There are few teams that have effectively slowed down a healthy Rob Gronkowski and this match-up could be the most important of the day for the young and aggressive Falcons defense.
4. NE WR Brandin Cooks vs ATL CB Desmond Trufant
Last season Patriots’ head coach Bill Belichick saw his wide receivers struggle to create separation against the blazing fast secondary of the Falcons and realized his offense needed a boost. In came wide receiver Brandin Cooks with his ability to pick-up huge chunks of yardage downfield or turning a short pass into a romp through the secondary.
Cooks leads the team with 19.7 yards per reception having hauled in 24 passes for a whopping 472 yards. Along with speedster Phillip Dorsett, the Patriots have added two young burners to the passing attack. With Dorsett still not a full speed due to a knee injury and Chris Hogan (ribs) still questionable for Sunday, the pressure is on Cooks to step-up and have a big game for the Patriots and their depleted wide receiver group.
He will face-off against another player who was not on the field in Super Bowl 51 in cornerback Desmond Trufant. Trufant was Atlanta’s first-round draft pick in 2013 and is fully recovered from the shoulder injury that kept him off the field. In fact, teams have already gone back to shying away from his side of the field as he continues to get his hands on seemingly every pass thrown his way.
Trufant is no stranger to Cooks as the two faced off regularly while Cooks was in New Orleans and had some epic battles. Trufant has fared well especially recently as Trufant locked down Cooks in week three although he missed the next match-up due to injury. Cooks will have to get the best of his old nemesis on Sunday to give New England a chance to get their offense on track.
5. NE DT Malcom Brown, DT Adam Butler and DT Alan Branch vs ATL G Andy Levitre, C Alex Mack and G Wes Schweitzer
Atlanta’s offense is most effective when their passing game keys off their two-headed rushing attack with a play-action passing concept to suck up the linebackers and create space for their talented wide receivers. Matt Ryan operates at his most efficient when running backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman create space in the middle of the field and lure down the linebackers to open up passing lanes for his receivers.
Atlanta has lead back Devonta Freeman and his 353 yards rushing and 4.5 yards per rush average leading the way. Behind him, Tevin Coleman has another 213 yards on the ground and an eye-popping 5.6 yards per rush average to go along with 14 receptions. This pair of running backs gave New England fits in Super Bowl 51 and both played well last week.
New England brings out their inconsistent run defense to this matchup and that unit is a big part of why that defense has struggled. The passing defense has garnered all the headlines, but the rush defense is 20th in yards allowed and have allowed eye-popping 4.7 yards per rushing attempt. Last week was one of their best performances of the season against the run.
It is no surprise New England is 3-0 when they hold opponents to less than 100 yards on the ground and 1-2 when they allow over 100 yards on the ground.
Defensive tackle Alan Branch was benched for a game as a healthy scratch and his snaps have been way down in 2017. Undrafted free agent rookie Adam Butler had been getting most of the snaps with massive second-year nose tackle Vincent Valentine on injured reserve. The best defensive tackle has been the former first-round draft pick, Malcolm Brown.
Controlling the run game while in the nickel package (be it the three safety look or three cornerback look) is vital to slowing the Atlanta passing attack. New England has seemingly faced a number of strong offenses but none have had the explosive potential of the Falcons.
To slow the Falcons the Patriots’ defensive front must create pressure. Center Alex Mack and guard Andy Levitre are among the best in the NFL at their position. Mack was arguably the most important addition to Atlanta last season and played a huge role as he has stabilized the interior offensive line and protected Ryan while creating space in the running game.
Levitre is a Pro Bowl caliber player and has continued to play build off a strong 2016 this season. Schweitzer was expected to be a liability and the second-year player was dominated by Akiem Hicks in week one against the Bears and appeared to be the weakest link on the offensive line. However, since week one he has improved dramatically and opened eyes when he shut down Ndamukong Suh last week against Miami.
Brown and Branch need to hold their own against this strong interior and keep the Atlanta rushing attack get on track. Any pressure generated is a bonus but any chance to stall the running game and make the Atlanta offense one-dimensional removes the play-action threat and limits the Atlanta passing attack better than any other strategy.
– Hal Bent is a Staff Writer for cover32/Patriots and covers the New England Patriots. Like and follow on Follow @halbent01 Follow @cover32_NE and Facebook.
