Patriots Mailbag: Should Pats consider this trade-down scenario?

Patriots Mailbag: Should Pats consider this trade-down scenario? originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

Only three weeks remain in the New England Patriots' tumultuous 2023 season. Their final three matchups will come against the Denver Broncos, Buffalo Bills, and New York Jets.

Before Sunday's game in Denver, we've got some big-picture mailbag questions to answer. Let's jump in...

Levy, that to me is a Bill Belichick decision and not a Robert Kraft decision. My guess is that no matter who has the head coaching role in New England in 2024, the Krafts would be willing to allow that person to determine how the staff takes shape. That's certainly something that would come up over the course of the interview process, meaning the Krafts would be aware of how the staff would ideally look before making a determination on their next head coach.

Belichick has long liked to have a smaller staff so that assistants feel busy... and therefore productive... and therefore as though they have some ownership over the operation. He explained his reasoning to lacrosse legend Paul Rabil on Rabil's Suiting Up podcast back in 2017.

"My philosophy, really, is that less is more," Belichick said. "I'd rather have fewer people doing more work than more people doing a little more work. As long as everybody is busy, as long as everybody feels productive, they feel good about what they're doing and they feel like they're contributing.

"I think when people have lag time and kind of not enough to do, then that leads to getting distracted and complaining or ... being less productive. Even though you have more people, sometimes less work gets done."

A smaller staff, Belichick explained, can also keep his message from the top a little clearer for the rest of the staff to disseminate.

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"From a getting everybody on the same page standpoint -- which is critical -- the fewer people you have to manage, the easier it is to get everybody on the same page," Belichick said. "If you're talking to 10 people, it's hard to get all 10 people doing the same thing or doing the right thing. Now you make that number 20 instead of 10, it's even more difficult.

"If you have five people supervising another 15 people, now you have another layer there where you're not dealing directly with everybody, and now you're somewhat dependent on other people to relay the message the way you want it done and to monitor it that way. Certainly, there's a degree of that, but as much of that I can eliminate, I think works better for me."

If Belichick is indeed elsewhere after the season, whoever comes next may very well take a different approach. And based on how this season has gone, a different approach might have some merit. Clearly there are other staffs with more folks involved that have found ways to have success at a high level.

Great question, Murph. A trade down might send Patriots fans over the edge. But a one-spot trade down with Arizona from No. 2 to No. 3? To perhaps land No. 35 overall (where the Cardinals are currently slated to pick in the second round)? Maybe that's the kind of move the greater New England region could embrace.

I just would have no interest in it. Not when the two top quarterbacks in this class are considered two of the best at that position in the last several years. Passing on a potential franchise quarterback isn't worth adding a pick atop the second round.

Consider the scenarios...

You could keep No. 2 and No. 34 and end up with North Carolina's Drake Maye at quarterback and perhaps Houston tackle Patrick Paul at the top of the second round.

You could trade down and take Ohio State's Marvin Harrison Jr. at No. 3, Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. at No. 34, and perhaps Oregon State tackle Taliese Fuaga at No. 35. Not bad. But you're rolling the dice on Penix's health and bypassing a higher-upside player at the game's most important position.

You could trade down, take Harrison (or the tackle of your choosing since it seems like you'd take Notre Dame's Joe Alt in the top three), package your two second-rounders in a trade to get back into the middle of the first round, and maybe snag Oregon quarterback Bo Nix. Or if you pass on a tackle in the top three, maybe you could get one at No. 11 or 12. That's not a bad situation, and there is high-end talent that'll be available in the No. 10-12 range this year.

There's risk involved with each path laid out above. But no matter which way you go, if you were to move down, you have to be comfortable with the fact that you might be passing on the kind of franchise quarterback every team is looking for.

We discussed on last week's Next Pats the recent examples of highly-drafted passers going to bad situations and making it work in relatively short order. If that's not your cup of tea, and you'd rather go with a longer-term build before looking for the quarterback you love -- like what Kansas City did back in 2013 when they pivoted at head coach and quarterback and had the No. 1 overall pick -- then moving down makes sense.

I wouldn't do it, but I can see the logic.

Kraft might let Bill Belichick go for nothing. But it doesn't mean that he shouldn't seek out an avenue to try to get some compensation for a coach who should have a market and remains under contract. Unless there's a no-trade clause in Belichick's deal that he's unwilling to waive -- the coaching equivalent of what Tom Brady did to get the franchise tag eliminated in his final deal with the Patriots -- he's under contract. He's an asset. Brady wasn't.

The No. 1 for me would be allowing Jakobi Meyers to walk out the door for JuJu Smith-Schuster. That was an easy first guess. Now it's a no-brainer second guess.

Smith-Schuster had a significant injury history. His production came in a scramble-drill-loving offense that bears no resemblance to what the Patriots run. Meyers, meanwhile, had a rapport with Mac Jones and was trending toward being a captain one day, his teammates would tell you.

Meyers leaving trumps not staffing the right tackle spot with a more dependable option. Mike Onwenu was coming off an injury but could've been moved there sooner. Tabbing a rookie to take over Onwenu's right guard spot -- as Sidy Sow has done with mixed results -- isn't a completely unreasonable ask. There was an answer for right tackle on the roster. They're still looking for a Meyers replacement.

One of the best parts of Daniels' game is that he doesn't turn the ball over. He's thrown 20 picks in five seasons. He's excellent in that regard. It's one of the reasons why I feel he's closer to the top two in this class than the next tier of draftable quarterbacks.

The concerns with him seem to be frame-related since he's an athletic quarterback without much in the way of meat on his bones. He's an older prospect so he may be closer to his ceiling than others. And the LSU offense isn't known for having an incredible amount of diversity to its route combinations. But he brings a rare blend of athleticism and good decision-making that will, in my opinion, get him drafted in the top 10.

That said, Maye seems to be widely considered a better prospect with greater upside. (Not universally, though. It's worth noting that former NFL general manager Randy Mueller, now working for The Athletic, explained recently why he likes Daniels better.)

Merry Christmas, KO! I'm going straight for the ice cream and pie. Part of the magic of Christmas is that I can somehow survive several straight days of eating things that have zero nutritional value.

Sod Father, I found this article from Dr. Eric Eager to be pretty interesting. He lays out an analytically-driven argument as to why Bill Belichick would be worth a first-round pick in a trade.

As is the case in any deal, he'll need a market. But it would not stun me if there was an owner out there willing to give up a first-rounder for a guy who's arguably the greatest to ever do the job.

His resume. But if the Krafts hold Belichick to the same standard he's held his players to over the years -- that you shouldn't pay for past performance -- then it feels as though a change is inevitable.

Perhaps Belichick agreeing to a diminished role -- maintaining his head coaching duties but giving up control of the 53-man roster, for example -- would sway the Krafts one way or the other. But I find that unlikely. Belichick may balk at using players he hasn't picked himself. And if the new general manager takes over with Belichick still in the organization, my guess is it would be very difficult for that person not to defer to Belichick even if he no longer has the official final call on personnel.

The tricky thing is, if the Patriots want Harrison in the draft, they would have to have a quarterback they feel good about already on the roster. In my opinion. And based on the quarterbacks currently under contract in New England, that means the team will have to add one they feel good about in free agency or via trade before draft weekend.

The best option as a potential starter available in free agency, for my money, would be Baker Mayfield. (If they just want a veteran backup for a young quarterback, I'd go with Jacoby Brissett.) If they want to go the trade route, Justin Fields carries the most intrigue. Would they be willing to give up a pick of real value to Chicago for one year of Fields as a "bridge" signal-caller? Would they be willing to pay a real starting quarterback salary to Mayfield?

The best and most cost-effective move at the most important position is to just go the draft route. But if they don't love Williams or Maye and would rather buy some time at the position while adding the best receiver prospect in years? Then they have to get aggressive at quarterback soon after the new league year begins.

I'm not sure that's the dominant narrative. In either spot, to be honest.

There's plenty of narratives out there you can find where Patriots quarterbacks get skewered, where injuries get highlighted, or -- the most popular -- where Belichick the general manager is blamed for letting down Belichick the head coach.

In Pittsburgh, there's plenty of chatter that Mike Tomlin just isn't suited for the job anymore. Being there for just a few days recently, that narrative is out there. And it's picking up steam. But his players haven't exactly covered themselves in glory lately, so they're deserving of blame, too.

The truth is, in both spots, there isn't a quick-and-easy narrative to explain why things have gone the way they have. It's complicated. There are shades of gray. Which is why we've spent months discussing all the different angles and why people remain interested. These are two great coaches -- one the greatest ever, I'd argue -- who've found themselves in the middle of incredibly challenging seasons. There's no one smoking gun for either. There's a whole arsenal of freshly-discharged arms worthy of examination.

Let's go rapid-fire for the rest here...

Nope. Nathan Rourke is break glass in case of emergency.

I mean, it hasn't been good. But as I've argued all season, their problems extend well beyond the quarterback position.

Josh Uche. His pass-rush win rate, per Pro Football Focus, is 12.2 this year. That places him 45th in the NFL. He's at least a competent No. 2 pass-rusher. If he gets closer to his 2022 form in the future -- when his win rate was 19.2 percent (7th that season, per PFF) -- then he's even better than that.

AJ Epenesa has come in behind Uche in that category each of the last two years. This year his win rate sits at 8.0 percent. They're very different players, but I'd go with the player who has more value in the passing game.