Packers vs. 49ers playoff preview: Who has the edge at QB in divisional round?
The Green Bay Packers (10-8) are headed back on the road to play the San Francisco 49ers (12-5) in the NFC Divisional Round on Saturday at Levi’s Stadium. This will be the first ever matchup between a No. 1 seed and a No. 7 seed, and the Packers are more than a touchdown underdog at most sportsbooks.
Football is a complicated game, but finding the reasons for winning individual matchups between teams each week is often a straightforward exercise. What wins games? Excellent quarterback play, winning the line of scrimmage, taking care of the football and taking it away, controlling the important situations and overcoming or taking advantage of the injury situation.
So, who has the edge at quarterback entering Saturday’s showdown?
Let’s take a look at the important numbers:
Completion % | 64.2 (20th) | 69.4 (4th) |
YPA | 7.2 (14th) | 9.6 (1st) |
TD passes | 32 (2nd) | 31 (3rd) |
Total TDs | 36 (4th) | 33 (5th) |
Passer rating | 96.1 (11th) | 113.0 (1st) |
Success rate | 47.6 (9th) | 54.7% (1st) |
EPA/play | 0.156 (5th) | 0.338 (1st) |
DVOA | 19.0 (6th) | 42.5 (1st) |
QBR | 62.0 (9th) | 72.7 (1st) |
PFF grade | 83.0 (11th) | 88.4 (4th) |
Big-time throws | 34 (5th) | 27 (10th) |
Turnover worthy plays | 17 (11th) | 18 (13th) |
Sack% | 4.9 (5th) | 5.9 (11th) |
PFF grade under pressure | 62.6 (6th) | 62.8 (8th) |
Completions, passes thrown 20+ yards | 32 (3rd) | 30 (6th) |
Games, multiple TDs, 0 INTs | 9 (1st) | 8 (2nd) |
Games, passer rating over 100.0 | 10 (2nd) | 10 (2nd) |
Purdy was the most efficient quarterback in football in 2023. He led the NFL in yards per attempt, passer rating, EPA/play and success rate. When it comes to quarterback stats, it’s tough to beat that quartet. Purdy mixed playing in a deadly scheme with all-star weapons to create a fantastic second year throwing the football in San Francisco.
But what did last week teach us? The “best” quarterback doesn’t just automatically beat the hottest quarterback, and there’s little doubt who the hottest quarterback in football is. The Packers have been playing must-win games for a month and Love has been lights out, culminating with a historic playoff debut last Sunday in Dallas. He has 21 touchdown passes and one interception in the last nine games. When a quarterback is playing as well as Love, a team has a chance to win every single week.
Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are facing off on the AFC side but Love-Purdy might end up being the best quarterback matchup of the weekend, at least statistically speaking. Both young passers are operating their respective schemes at high levels while distributing the ball to talented groups of pass-catchers. Both will ruthlessly attack the middle of the field. Both can make plays off-schedule and with their legs. And both can hit the intermediate to deep shots. They are both succeeding within and elevating the scheme.
The dividing line for Saturday? Probably avoiding interceptions. The 49ers were 2-4 when Purdy threw an interception this season, including an 0-3 mark when he threw two or more. The Packers were 1-7 when Love threw an interception but 9-2 when he didn’t. The 49ers defense led the NFL in picks during the regular season, but the Packers got two huge interceptions in their upset in Dallas.
It’s fair to call the quarterback matchup a draw. Purdy is the ultimate point guard. Love is on fire and can hit from anywhere. This is something like Steve Nash vs. Stephen Curry.
Here’s Doug Farrar of Touchdown Wire on the Love vs. Purdy matchup:
Let’s start with this – if the Packers are in line with Devonte Wyatt’s proclamation that “When D-linemen just get pressure into [Purdy], he’s always throwing off or it’s behind them or it’s overthrown or short … when you get pressure on him, it’s a guarantee we’ll get a turnover,” it will be an exceedingly long day for Joe Barry’s defense. Purdy this season under pressure has completed 87 of 156 passes for 1,278 yards, 11 touchdowns, six interceptions, and a passer rating of 90.2. And when blitzed this season, he’s completed 117 of 172 passes for 1,762 yards, 15 touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 123.3. Talk about “Mr. Irrelevant” all you want, but Purdy is for real, and he’s become one of the best distillers of the Kyle Shanahan offense that Shanahan’s ever had.
Two things stand out when looking at Purdy’s skill set, and both are rare for young quarterbacks. First, he is exceptional at deciphering disguise and late movement in coverage – there isn’t a lot you’re going to fool him with. And he’s a tremendous downfield anticipation thrower. The 49ers run their passing game vertically inside the numbers to a large degree, and there have been so many times this season when Purdy will throw the ball on a dig or an in-cut or a post before the receiver makes his cut, and it’s right on the money. The Packers have improved a lot over the last three weeks in their overall pass defense, but if they underestimate Purdy in any way, that would be a major mistake.
As for Jordan Love, he continues to rip it up. The Cowboys switched their usual approach against Love, playing much more man coverage than they had throughout most of the season. Not that it mattered. The 49ers don’t have a specific coverage type – they’re 50/50 single-high and two-high, with a lot of Cover-4 and Cover-6, with Cover-3 as their primary single-high concept. More zone than man, but against Cover-4 and Cover-6 this season, Love has thrown three touchdowns and three interceptions, with a passer rating of 89.0. Now, you do have to look at the second half of the season with Love, because he really starting hitting those extra gears around Week 9, and Love has thrown all three of his touchdowns, and none of his interceptions, since then against those two coverages.
Both of these teams use a ton of heavy personnel and pre-snap motion to create explosive plays both in the run and pass game, and given how the Love has done in the second half of the season, combined with the improvements in the run game and the defense over the last few weeks, this could be a closer matchup than a lot of people expect.
Unlike last week, the Packers have no experience gap to overcome at the quarterback position. Purdy has thrown 63 career passes in the postseason. Love aced his playoff debut. Execution in the big moments and protecting the football will almost certainly decide the quarterback matchup in the NFC Divisional Round on Saturday at Levi’s Stadium.
