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The Green Bay Packers seize control of the No. 1 seed in the NFC after the Cardinals loss; check out the playoff tiebreakers to know.

JR Radcliffe, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
·7 min read
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Green Bay Packers outside linebacker Rashan Gary (52) rtecovers a second half fumble against the Chicago Bears during their football game on Sunday December 12, 2021, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. Wm. Glasheen USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin
Green Bay Packers outside linebacker Rashan Gary (52) rtecovers a second half fumble against the Chicago Bears during their football game on Sunday December 12, 2021, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. Wm. Glasheen USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin

With the Los Angeles Rams' win over the Arizona Cardinals on Monday night, the Green Bay Packers have possession of the No. 1 seed in the NFC, at least for now. It's pretty simple: If the Packers win their last four games, they'll get the first-round bye awarded to the NFC's top team.

Here are some things to know about the tiebreaking procedures and where the Packers stand.

The Packers, Cardinals and Bucs are all 10-3, so why does Green Bay have the No. 1 seed?

In a three-way tie (since the teams haven't all played against each other), the big tiebreaker to know is record against NFC teams. Tampa Bay and Arizona have taken all three of their losses in the NFC, while Green Bay has taken two of three, so that tiebreaker gives the Packers an edge for now.

If the season ended today, who would the Packers face in the playoffs?

Green Bay would hold the No. 1 seed and would get a first-round bye, then face the worst remaining seed in the divisional round.

What are the odds Mike McCarthy winds up coaching a playoff game at Lambeau?

Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy reacts to a penalty call in the fourth quarter Thursday against the Raiders.
Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy reacts to a penalty call in the fourth quarter Thursday against the Raiders.

If the season ended today, Dallas would hold the No. 4 seed, and the No. 1 Packers would host Dallas if the Cowboys won ... and if the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds won, as well. Otherwise, there's still a chance they could meet at Lambeau in the NFC title game.

Dallas sits one game back of Green Bay but does hold a tiebreaking edge in that only one of its losses have been to an NFC team (the Packers have suffered two such losses). Thus, if the Packers lost again and Dallas won out, the Cowboys would get the head-to-head edge on the tiebreaker of conference record. Perhaps a playoff battle in Dallas instead? Green Bay has some postseason success there.

When can the Packers clinch the division?

Green Bay's magic number to clinch the NFC North is one. Any Packers win or Vikings loss will seal it up.

It would be the Packers' third straight division title and eighth title in the 11 seasons since the Super Bowl.

Among the top teams, who has the easiest schedule going forward?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) attempts a pass during a NFL football game against the Buffalo Bills, Sunday, Dec.12, 2021 in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Alex Menendez)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) attempts a pass during a NFL football game against the Buffalo Bills, Sunday, Dec.12, 2021 in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Alex Menendez)

It's pretty clearly the Buccaneers, which isn't the best news for the Packers. Here's a look:

Green Bay Packers (current No. 1 seed, 10-3)

  • at Baltimore (8-5)

  • vs. Cleveland (7-6)

  • vs. Minnesota (6-7)

  • at Detroit (1-11-1)

The toughest battle on the docket remaining for Green Bay is the game in Baltimore on Sunday, even if quarterback Lamar Jackson is hobbled (although Cleveland did just beat the Ravens). But it's easy to imagine the Packers sweeping these games and locking up the top seed.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (current No. 2 seed, 10-3)

  • vs. New Orleans (6-7)

  • at Carolina (5-8)

  • at New York Jets (3-10)

  • vs. Carolina (5-8)

To determine whether Arizona or Tampa gets the No. 2 seed (since both are tied in losses to NFC opponents), we turn to record against common opponents, but for that tiebreaking criteria to apply, we need four matchups against common foes. The Bucs and Cardinals don't yet have four common-opponent games, but by the end of the year, they will. Right now Arizona is 2-2 in those games with one to play, while Tampa is 2-1 with two to play (both against Carolina). So, advantage Tampa. Until we get to that threshold, the next tiebreaker on the list is strength of victory, and right now that's a fairly comfortable edge for Tampa Bay. It's only a placeholder measure until the common-opponents tiebreaker applies, though.

Arizona Cardinals (current No. 3 seed, 10-3)

  • at Detroit (1-11-1)

  • vs. Indianapolis (7-6)

  • at Dallas (9-4)

  • vs. Seattle (5-8)

The Packers own the head-to-head tiebreaker with Arizona, and the Cardinals have some toughies left on the calendar. Plus, the Cardinals have to hold off the Rams for the NFC West crown.

Dallas Cowboys (current No. 4 seed, 9-4)

  • at New York Giants (4-9)

  • vs. Washington (6-7)

  • vs. Arizona (10-3)

  • at Philadelphia (6-7)

The Cowboys are leading the East by three games and currently own the No. 4 seed but have lost only one NFC game and could easily slide past the Packers if Green Bay loses. However, Dallas lost to Tampa Bay and doesn't have a head-to-head tiebreaker there, and a head-to-head with Arizona will get sussed out in three weeks.

Los Angeles Rams (current No. 5 seed, 9-4)

  • vs. Seattle (5-8)

  • at Minnesota (6-7)

  • at Baltimore (8-5)

  • vs. San Francisco (7-6)

The top wild-card team is one behind Arizona for the West title, and the Packers have a head-to-head tiebreaker, so it's unlikely the Rams finish seeded ahead of the Packers (barring a collapse from both Arizona and the Packers).

What if there's a three-way or four-way tie?

These tiebreakers are a little hard to forecast because they often depend on which losses a team will take.

If Green Bay ties with Arizona and Tampa Bay, because they all win out, the Packers will get the top seed based on the tiebreaker of record against NFC opponents. Tampa Bay would then (at least, as of now) have the edge over Arizona. If they all lose a game, it'd be preferred that the Packers take that loss against Baltimore or Cleveland so Green Bay keeps the tiebreaking edge.

If Green Bay ties with Arizona, Tampa Bay and Dallas, because Dallas won out and everybody else lost once, Dallas is going to wind up with the top seed (because it has only one NFC loss thus far, and everyone else has at least two). The Packers could still be second, but that would depend on which loss Green Bay takes going forward (again, AFC loss preferred, which would still guarantee a higher standing than the other two teams).

Who are the potential Nos. 6 and 7 seeds that the Packers might face in the first round?

San Francisco 49ers' George Kittle (85) celebrates a touchdown reception during the first half of an NFL football game against the Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, Dec. 12, 2021, in Cincinnati. (AP Photo/Aaron Doster)
San Francisco 49ers' George Kittle (85) celebrates a touchdown reception during the first half of an NFL football game against the Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, Dec. 12, 2021, in Cincinnati. (AP Photo/Aaron Doster)

San Francisco (7-6). Green Bay won on the road early in the season, 30-28, though the 49ers won four of their next five before losing to Seattle two weeks ago, followed by another win against Cincinnati to move into the current No. 6 spot. This isn't a team anyone wants to face in the playoffs. The 49ers close the year against the Falcons (6-7), Titans (9-4), Texans (2-11) and Rams (9-4).

Washington (6-7). The Packers defeated Washington earlier this year, 24-10, but the Football Team won four straight (albeit three by single digits) before losing to Dallas this week. A 29-19 win over Tampa Bay is the most impressive of those victories. WFT currently holds the No. 7 seed, but it has a challenging road ahead, with another game left against Dallas and two against Philadelphia before a season closer in New York against the Giants. Washington presently has a tiebreaker over the Eagles and Vikings because of NFC record.

Minnesota (6-7). The Vikings survived last Thursday against Pittsburgh in a win it had to have, and the Vikings still see the Bears twice more this year, plus the Rams at home and Packers at Lambeau on Jan. 2. That's manageable, and we already know the Vikings have some firepower against the Packers.

Philadelphia (6-7). Many of the Eagles' losses (49ers, Cowboys, Chiefs, Bucs, Raiders, Chargers) have come against playoff-worthy competition, with a setback against the Giants as the ugliest loss. The Eagles still have a pretty fair shot to get into the top seven, with Dallas, the Giants and two Washington games still to go. Minnesota slipped behind Philly this week with the Eagles on bye.

Atlanta (6-7). The Falcons have zero wins this year by more than eight points, but here they are, despite an average winning margin of 4.8 points. The Falcons have to also still deal with San Francisco, Buffalo and New Orleans.

New Orleans (6-7). A win over the New York Jets this week snapped New Orleans' five-game losing streak and restored a glimmer of hope in the playoff chase. If the Saints pull an upset over Tampa Bay next week on Sunday Night Football, two things will happen — the Packers will get some breathing room and the Saints' chances will suddenly be very real again.

JR Radcliffe can be reached at (262) 361-9141 or jradcliffe@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter at @JRRadcliffe.

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This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Packers have number 1 seed after Cardinals loss; NFC tiebreakers