Packers’ faith in rookie WR Christian Watson could save their offense… and their season

In the history of the Dallas Cowboys, which goes back to 1960, only two rookie receivers have ever dominated Dallas’ defense with three touchdowns. On Thanksgiving Day, 1998, a young Minnesota Vikings receiver who was VERY unhappy that the Cowboys didn’t draft him, and wanted revenge, went off for three catches on eight targets, 153 yards, and those three scores.

That young receiver was Randy Moss, whose name you may know.

The second rookie receiver to do that against the Cowboys did it last Sunday. That was second-round pick Christian Watson, the toolsy receiver from North Dakota State whose inaugural NFL campaign had been the personification of boom-or-bust before Week 10.

Watson also became the fourth Packers rookie with three receiving touchdowns in a game, joining Billy Howton in 1952, unlikely Super Bowl I hero Max McGee in 1954, and James Lofton in 1978.

Both Moss and Lofton are in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, and while we’re a couple (hundred) good games from projecting Watson to that level, Watson’s game might have saved the Packers’ season, and the combination of traits and awareness he showed in the win might be the thing that projects the Packers forward to an unlikely postseason appearance.

It’s not impossible for the Packers, who stand at 4-6 after that 31-28 win over Dallas, to trend decidedly in the right direction. The 2016 Packers were 4-6 following a 42-24 Week 11 loss to Washington. They then rolled off eight straight wins before losing to the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC Championship game. One reason for that late hot streak was third-year receiver Davante Adams, who started to become a target monster as that season progressed. Yes, another second-round guy from a smaller school (Fresno State) paid off when he was most needed.

Again, we’re not saying that Watson is ready to take the mantle of two Hall of Famers in Moss and Lofton, and the Packers’ most gifted receiver of this era in Adams, but what Watson showed in the Cowboys game after inconsistencies and injuries surely does bode well for the future.

Aaron Rodgers transcended Watson's early drops.

(Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)

As much as Rodgers has thrown his offensive teammates under the bus this season, and as much as things have been more on Rodgers than Rodgers might like to admit at times, Green Bay’s quarterback had no problem showing faith in his rookie receiver in this game. Possibly because he had no choice but to extend belief in Watson.

The rookie’s fourth target in his first NFL game started with a vicious move on veteran cornerback Patrick Peterson, and then… an equally agonizing drop.

The difference here was how supportive Watson’s teammates and coaches were despite the drops.

“Once we had those two drops and came back to the sideline, everyone was so very encouraging of him because they know the time they’ve put in and the talent that he has,” receiver Allen Lazard said, via Matt Schneidman of the Athletic. “And for him to be able to finish the day the way that he did was something special. That’s such a huge stepping point for him to be able to make that next big step and to be a real threat for our offense.”

Watson wasn’t out of the doghouse yet, but he was about to escape it with authority.

Watson's first touchdown was a repudiation of the Vikings drop.

(Syndication: The Post-Crescent)

If the Packers had a more dangerous receiver corps, Rodgers might have gone away from the rookie and stayed there. But Rodgers’ willingness to work through it and get to the other side wasn’t just a matter of positional desperation — it was also an investment in Watson’s talent, and the ways in which head coach and offensive shot-caller Matt LaFleur had designed plays in which Watson could use his size (6-foot-5, 200 pounds) and vertical speed (a 4.36-second 40-yard dash at the scouting combine) to break open defenses.

“We’ve got a lot of plays designed for him, so I don’t think there was any other option,” Rodgers said succinctly. 

Watson’s first career touchdown was pretty similar to the Vikings drop that could have been his first career touchdown — he just blew up the field one-on-one with cornerback Anthony Brown, and there was no way he was dropping this one. 58 yards later, Watson had dropped the albatross.

“I think that catch probably, on the atomic level, shifted a lot of different things for him, exorcizing some energetic demons,” Rodgers said in his own inimitable fashion. 

The quarterback then continued with a more pragmatic breakdown.

“It’s got to be the first one,” Rodgers said, when asked which of Watson’s three touchdowns were the most impressive. “You guys sometimes watch early practice, we always do pat-and-go where we’re working on over-the-shoulder catches, and when he first got here, that was something that he wasn’t very natural at, and I feel like he’s had a nice progression of figuring out how to track that ball in the air and over his eyes and bring it in. But until you do it in a game, it’s a completely different thing, so I came up and one-hitched it and put it in a spot I thought was pretty good. Obviously, he’s extremely fast, but for him to catch that and then keep his feet and go in the end zone and then backflip, that was awesome.

LaFleur agreed regarding the value of that first catch.

“It’s been kind of a rollercoaster ride for him and to just see him respond like that. It started off rough again, you know having two drops and then to finish the game with three touchdowns. And the one catch, obviously the first touchdown… Aaron threw a beautiful pass but that’s one that, not to reflect on the past, but Week 1, he was in the same situation on the right side…and to see him come down with it, I think it was a pivotal moment hopefully in his career where that gives him the confidence.

“And I did tell him after the second drop on third down; I said ‘Hey, we’re coming back to you. We’re coming back to you’. And he responded. And just super proud of him. He is such a conscientious guy, very mature for a rookie. It means a lot to him; it does. You can see it on a daily basis the way he approaches his work. And it was just cool to see him just bounce back in that moment,”

Unfortunately for the Cowboys, Watson was only beginning his response.

The second touchdown came after more struggles.

(Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports)

Watson also wasn’t done showing that he’s a rookie. This slot fade with 10:52 left in the third quarter should have been a touchdown, but for Watson misjudging the arc and velocity of Rodgers’ throw.

Here’s why: With 13:31 left in the fourth quarter, and the Packers down 28-14, Watson housed Bland on a deep over out of bunch right against Dallas’ Cover-1 defense. This put Bland as the only guy on Watson, and Rodgers had seen this movie before.

“I adjusted him and Allen [Lazard] on the play because I wanted [Watson] on kind of that deep over, and Allen on a deep in,” Rodgers said. “Both guys were open, but we protected up well and that was just his speed.”

Watson was happy, but not completely satisfied.

“It wasn’t the exact look that I would have preferred on that specific route,” he said of this touchdown. “I’d like to have gotten inside of [Bland] and broken across the field. We knew that their safeties were playing low. They were playing that one-high, so obviously come out of the break and be as flat as possible. But he kind of played inside, so I took it vertical. I think I lost him a little bit and broke it flat and it was there.”

Watson would have one more chance to get it right to his standards.

Touchdown No. 3 showed a new wrinkle.

(Syndication: The Post-Crescent)

Through the first half of his first season, Watson was mostly catching go, seam, over, and dig routes, with the occasional hitch and flat routes thrown in. The game-tying touchdown, which came with 2:33 left in regulation, was a rare crosser, with Watson running the “hole” route across the defense from the slot. From the end zone copy, you can see how Watson’s pure speed translates horizontally as well as it does vertically.

“The third one was just an excellent schematic,” Rodgers said of this score.  “It helped that we ran the ball really efficiently on that drive. We were just kind of baiting them, baiting them to come up even more, and he’s on the backside running just a direct line over to the other side, and he’s going to win most of those footraces.”

What does it all mean?

(Syndication: The Post-Crescent)

Based on the positives and negatives from the Cowboys game, we should not expect Watson to become Pure Randy Moss right away. The Packers next face the Tennessee Titans on Thursday night, and that’s a defense which can throw all kinds of coverage concepts at you. The Titans are vulnerable at times — they currently rank 13th in Pass Defense DVOA — but as that defense also ranks first in Run Defense DVOA, there might be more opportunities for Watson to shine.

“He’s been doing a lot of work on his visualization and the mental side, and I think it shows up,” Rodgers said of Watson. After those two drops, I felt like he reset on the sidelines. I kind of came over to him and said, ‘Ball is still coming your way, buddy. Let’s get one of these, let’s make a play.’ That first one I feel is like the monkey, the 800-pound gorilla off his back. The weight of expectations and frustrations and drops and disappointment. And hopefully that’s a big jolt for him moving forward.”

Here’s what we do know. Per Next Gen Stats, Rodgers’ 58-yard touchdown pass to Watson {the first one) had an air distance of 51 yards. That was the longest completion by air distance for Rodgers this season and the first deep touchdown pass allowed by the Cowboys in 2022. On the second deep touchdown, Rodgers passed Geno Smith of the Seattle Seahawks for the most deep touchdown passes (six) since Week 6 after throwing none in the first five games of the season.

So, there are tangible and obvious reasons for the Packers’ investment and faith in Christian Watson. The extent to which Watson is able to repay it in the here and now might decide how far the Packers go on the comeback trail.

Story originally appeared on Touchdown Wire