Pac-12 merger with Mountain West is a huge political headache … but it’s necessary
The Pac-12 has become the Pacific four, whittled to a small group of schools. Of these four schools, the only one with some degree of leverage is Stanford, an elite academic institution with a robust sports program in the Bay Area television market and none of the financial woes of Cal-Berkeley, its Bay Area neighbor.
Yet, Stanford isn’t calling the shots here. It can make a pitch to the Big Ten, which would seem like the obvious landing spot for the Cardinal, but the Big Ten ultimately has to want the “Trees.” How the Big Ten considers its options is a plot point worth paying attention to, but the larger point is that the Big Ten will decide if Stanford joins. Stanford will not decide if it goes to the Big Ten. It can’t make it happen. It can only hope for it to happen and pray the Big Ten says yes.
It’s similar in the Big 12, where Oregon State and Washington State would love to join, but the Big 12 has to want to invite the two schools. That doesn’t seem likely. Stanford to the Big Ten has a better chance of happening than Oregon State and Wazzu going to the Big 12.
If these four schools are denied entry into Power Five conferences, the Pac-12 merger with the Mountain West will need to happen.
Mark Zeigler of the San Diego Tribune wrote a very detailed examination of the Pac-12 and the Mountain West. We’ll unpack what he said and offer our own analysis as well.
Here we go:
PAC-12 TAKEOVER OF MOUNTAIN WEST IS UNLIKELY
If the Pac-12 did take over the Mountain West — as opposed to merely merging with it — that would mean San Diego State and other desirable schools would technically “leave” the Mountain West for the new-look Pac-12. That would trigger all of the exit fees that were talked about — and made known to the nation — when San Diego State flirted with leaving the Mountain West in June. All those exit fees would not be affordable for the various Mountain West schools. You’re not going to see the Pac-12 absorb the Mountain West as a hostile takeover. No way.
MOUNTAIN WEST TAKEOVER OF PAC-12 IS ALSO UNLIKELY
Zeigler’s report from the San Diego Tribune makes the specific point that if the Mountain West raids the Pac-12 and executes a hostile takeover, “abandoning the Pac-12 could leave behind tens of millions of dollars in College Football Playoff and NCAA Tournament distributions, along with a seat at the table of college sports’ power brokers as an ‘autonomous five’ — aka Power Five — conference.”
The Pac-12 has Power Five status. The Mountain West does not. Pac-12 valuations for the playoff and the NCAA Tournament are naturally much higher under the Pac-12 umbrella. Mountain West schools would comprise a majority of a new conference, but the Pac-12 would retain Power Five status to save hundreds if not thousands of legal and contractual headaches.
Yes, the headaches are numerous right now, but they become even more widespread and problematic — also costly — if a merger isn’t negotiated. It’s going to be complicated and unpleasant no matter what, but it’s worse if one conference tries to engineer a hostile takeover by raiding the other. Neither side is in a good position to do that.
GONZAGA
Bringing Gonzaga into a fusion of the Pac-12 and Mountain West could be a significant lure for the Pacific four schools as they contemplate their (less-than-great) options. However, the Big 12 has had talks with Gonzaga and is probably more likely to land the Zags.
All of that aside, the Pac-12 and Mountain West probably need to merge if they are to have any hope of bringing Gonzaga into the fold.
BUDGETS
Most Pac-12 schools have much larger athletic budgets than most Mountain West schools. The shortfall from losing Pac-12 TV revenue is considerable for the surviving schools. However, Mountain West TV revenues are much smaller than what the Pac-12 schools have had. Larger programs require larger budgets and more revenue. Smaller programs don’t.
Therefore, the Mountain West raiding the Pac-12 and putting those four schools under its thumb is unlikely to work. The Pac-12 refugees will not submit to a Mountain West takeover if that destroys Pac-12 playoff and NCAA Tournament distributions.
Mountain West schools will make more if they move into a Power Five Pac-12 sans the takeover than with a takeover. They will not make great money, but they will make more than they previously have. The Pacific four will make far less money than they previously have, but if they retain Power Five status, they will minimize and contain their losses.
MEMBERSHIP
The Mountain West has 12 football members; Hawaii is not a member in non-football sports. Would all 12 schools join the reconstituted Pac-12? It could easily be the case that the conference survivors would want a smaller group to join, since TV revenues would be split only 12 ways instead of 16, thereby boosting each school’s income.
Zeigler reports that if any Mountain West schools might be in danger of not being retained in a possible collaboration they are Hawaii, San Jose State, and Nevada. If the Pac-12 survivors don’t bolt for the Big Ten (Stanford) or Big 12 (Oregon State and Washington State), this drama will be magnified.
AAC
Would Stanford, Oregon State and Washington State insist that they don’t want to take on perceived dead weight in the lower tiers of the Mountain West (Wyoming, New Mexico, Hawaii, San Jose State)? If that is their attitude (we don’t know if it is, but it sure seems possible), this merger might involve attempts to reach out to desirable AAC schools such as Memphis, Tulane and SMU. Keep in mind that the Pac-12 has talked to SMU.
STANFORD GOING INDEPENDENT IN FOOTBALL
Stanford will prefer to go to the Big Ten, but as we have said, the Big Ten has to want Stanford first. If the Big Ten says no, Stanford could choose to go independent in football and join the Mountain West in other sports. This specific plot point could affect the other above plot points regarding conference membership, expansion, outreach, and more.
TV CONTRACTS
From Zeigler’s report:
“Fox and CBS share the current Mountain West deal that has three years remaining and includes clauses for renegotiation if the conference adds or loses anyone; if it passes on new inventory, the conference can seek a third TV partner. The Pac-12 deal expires next summer.
“The logical solution might be operating under the Mountain West contract through 2025-26, adjusted upward for the new additions. Then they’d negotiate a new deal that wouldn’t command Big 12 money but could double the $5 million or so that Mountain West schools get now.”
PAC-12 NETWORK VALUE
Pac-12 Network doesn’t contain immense value, but it has some value. Converting the network into an outlet for Mountain West sports, or handing it over to ESPN (or another TV partner), or using it as a poker chip of some kind in negotiations, is one small but notable part of this larger drama.
ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS
We have covered the various angles presented in Zeigler’s San Diego Tribune story. Let’s add some layers of our own analysis.
Start here: Gonzaga going to the Big 12 — if it happens — likely prevents both Washington State and Oregon State from joining. If Gonzaga goes to the Big 12, you’re likely to see either UConn or Memphis joining the Zags to create the 18-team Big 12. That would hurt Washington State even more, seeing an in-state neighbor without a Division I football program get Power Five access and leaving the Cougars on the outside looking in.
CAL KEYS
One domino which could decide the fate of the Pac-4 and the Mountain West is Cal. The Big Ten might want Stanford but not Cal, given that the Golden Bears have an athletic department which is in far worse shape than Stanford’s. If the Big Ten invites Stanford, it would have 19 members. There would need to be a 20th member. The Big Ten might want an ACC school instead of Cal.
Does the Big Ten have a plan for an ACC school if it wants Stanford, or will it just sit at 18 and save itself the headache? This is part of the drama which will affect what the Pac-4 wants and what the Mountain West can do.
SAN DIEGO STATE TRAGEDY
Stop to consider the irony of it all: San Diego State wanted to join the Pac-12 and leave the Mountain West. We could soon have a situation in which San Diego State becomes part of a conference with Stanford, Cal, Oregon State, and Washington State, but with only a small part of the TV money and overall revenue it might have had if it had been invited into a full-strength Pac-12 with Colorado, Utah, Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon, and Washington.
The Pac-12’s failure to invite SDSU and save itself becomes that much worse — and dumber — in retrospect.
SMU
So much of what applies to San Diego State also applies to SMU, minus the obvious point that SDSU is a Mountain West school and SMU isn’t. Nevertheless, SMU could have been invited into the Pac-12 as a stabilizing presence. Now, SMU might join the Pac-12 and Mountain West as a school with a lot less to gain from it all.
THE COMMISH
If the Pac-12 and Mountain West merge, does George Kliavkoff remain the commissioner? It would seem only appropriate, and fair, for Mountain West Commissioner Gloria Nevarez to take over the league. We’ll see what happens.
