Pac-12 basketball is burdened by one common theme heading into conference play
Washington State faces Utah State in the third-place game of the Diamond Head Classic in Honolulu on Sunday evening. That’s the last nonconference game for the Pac-12 basketball season before the full league schedule begins on Thursday, Dec. 29. As the Pac-12 enters the meat of its conference schedule, there’s an obvious flaw with a number of teams which is a big concern as the new year arrives.
The people who follow Pac-12 basketball will tell you that every year, it’s important for the conference to take care of business in the nonconference portion of its schedule. It’s not that Pac-12 games don’t matter; of course they do. The point of emphasis is simply that Pac-12 teams need to do enough work in November and December that the margin for error isn’t small entering January and February.
The problem is that Pac-12 teams too often stub their toes in the early weeks of the season. They have to then thread the needle in conference play, and they usually can’t. Pac-12 basketball road trips are tough.
Sure enough, Pac-12 teams have stumbled again. We’ll explain why in our look at the conference before the heart of the Pac-12 hoops season begins:
USC'S STUMBLE
USC slipped on a banana peel against Florida Gulf Coast. It’s the kind of loss which could haunt the Trojans in March.
USC wasn’t bad in its 13-game nonconference slate, finishing 10-3. The Trojans really needed to be 11-2, though, and not have that FGCU loss hanging over them. They’d be in much better shape without that one stumble. It’s unfortunate.
UTAH'S BIG FAILURE
The Utes lost at home to Sam Houston State. That was Utah’s equivalent of USC’s loss to Florida Gulf Coast. When you go through Pac-12 team resumes for teams other than UCLA and Arizona, you’ll see this kind of loss at least once on the nonconference schedule.
ARIZONA STATE
The Sun Devils lost to Texas Southern. They’re in good position for an NCAA Tournament bid, but if they start losing in Pac-12 play, that loss will become more important — and concerning.
WASHINGTON
The Huskies lost at home to California Baptist. That loss looms large for a team which has a good win over Saint Mary’s and not that much else in nonconference play.
WASHINGTON STATE
The Cougars have lost to a lot of good teams. They also lost to Prairie View A&M.
COLORADO
The Buffaloes lost to Grambling, UMass, and Boise State, in addition to two conference losses. They have a great win over Tennessee, but their collection of losses offsets that huge victory.
STANFORD
The Cardinal lost to a not-very-good Ole Miss team and failed to win their big nonconference games versus Wisconsin and San Diego State.
OREGON STATE
The Beavers have six losses, including Portland State and Texas A&M.
OREGON
The Ducks have six losses, including home losses to UC Irvine and Utah Valley. Ouch!
CAL
The Golden Bears are 1-12. Enough said.
BIG PICTURE
With Arizona State, USC, and Utah all having notable wins (Arizona State over Michigan and Creighton, USC over Auburn, Utah over Arizona), those three teams are in the hunt for NCAA berths. Yet, they all have a loss on their resume which could be very burdensome on Selection Sunday. Those three teams really need to separate themselves from the pack — and each other — if they want to feel safe for an NCAA Tournament bid.
WHERE TEAMS STAND
The Pac-12 has already separated itself into a five-team pack with a decent chance of making the NCAA Tournament, and a seven-team group whose NCAA chances are already very slim.
UCLA and Arizona are near-locks right now for the NCAA Tournament. They could lose a bunch of games and still have enough great wins to get in. They are on course to be high seeds.
ASU, USC and Utah are the three teams with a decent chance to land a bid, but who have a lot of work to do and cannot feel remotely safe.
Colorado is the best team of the seven-team chasing pack. The Buffs have five losses and are 0-2 in the conference, but they have some great nonconference wins. If they can get hot, they can enter the NCAA Tournament conversation, but they have really weakened their position with all their losses.
Oregon is shockingly on the ropes for the NCAA Tournament. The Ducks need to win at least 13 or 14 conference games to undo the damage of the nonconference schedule.
Washington is in a position similar to Oregon.
Oregon State, Stanford, Washington State, and Cal have all buried themselves, probably beyond the point of any hope or salvation.
FORECAST
It’s really hard to see the Pac-12 getting more than five NCAA Tournament bids right now. Colorado could be the sixth, but the Buffs have reduced their margin for error.
If Arizona State, USC, and Utah all beat UCLA or Arizona at least once in the coming weeks (Utah already did, but it might need a second victory), their odds go way up. Failing to beat UCLA or Arizona, on the other hand, would be a significant blow to their NCAA Tournament hopes.
The lower seven teams in the conference all need to get on a huge hot streak and not cool down for multiple weeks.
