How Oregon women’s basketball fell from Sabrina Ionescu NCAA title favorites to irrelevant

The year is 2019. The Oregon women’s basketball team is two days removed from its first Final Four appearance in program history, improving on its back-to-back Elite Eight exits the previous two seasons.

Despite the heartbreak of losing in the national semifinals, things were about to get even sweeter in Eugene. On April 7, generational point guard Sabrina Ionescu, viewed as the consensus No. 1 pick if she declared for the WNBA draft as a junior, penned a letter to fans in the Players Tribune titled, “A Letter to Ducks Nation.”

Ionescu declared the rising Ducks had unfinished business, and announced her return for a senior campaign aimed at one goal: bringing a national championship to Eugene.

She didn’t stop there.

“My teammates and I, our coaches, our fans, this program – we’re not going on a ‘run,’ you know what I mean??” she wrote at the time. “We’re not doing one of those things where, like, a team appears out of the blue, on the backs of a few good players, and then makes noise for a season or two before heading back underground. Nah. This isn’t that. We’re building something here in Eugene. We’re building something – together – that’s going to last for a long time after we’ve all graduated.”

Alongside fellow stars Satou Sabally and Ruthy Hebard, the Ducks were the consensus favorites to win the 2019-20 national title. They were also set up for more success with a top-ranked recruiting class loaded with talent, eager to extend Ionescu’s success into the future.

Before head coach Kelly Graves and Ionescu's arrival to Eugene, Oregon had never made it past the second round of the NCAA Tournament.

Roughly five years after Ionescu’s bold statement, the Ducks finished the 2023-24 season 11-21 and won just two Pac-12 games. Oregon’s 14 losses in a row are a program record, and its 16 conference losses tied a record set before head coach Kelly Graves took over the program a decade ago. The Ducks 49-point loss to Colorado in the first round of the Pac-12 Tournament last week is the worst defeat in the tournament's history.

So, what happened? How did a program that seemed destined for further greatness decline so rapidly?

Among the issues for the Ducks: abundant player movement in an unpredictable transfer portal, players lost to injury and a generational team filled with once-in-a-lifetime players disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

Here is a timeline of Oregon's meteoric rise five years ago to near irrelevance in 2024.

Nov. 9, 2019 – Ducks beat Team USA

On a day that would set the stage for an entire season, the Oregon women took down Team USA in a preseason tune-up, 93-86, in front of a frenzied crowd at Matthew Knight Arena.

That USA squad featured Diana Taurasi, Sue Bird, Nneka Ogwumike, and Sylvia Fowles, just to name a few All-Stars.

Ionescu scored 30 points and had seven assists. Hebard scored 18 points and hauled in 11 rebounds. Sabally scored 25 more and hauled in six boards. Oregon became just the second team in history to beat the USWNT, and the first since Tennessee in 1999.

The Ducks went on to win their third straight regular season Pac-12 title, and their second Pac-12 tournament title in the last three years. They clobbered Stanford in the title game, 89-56, on March 8, 2020, and were overwhelming favorites to win the NCAA Tournament while riding high on a 19-game winning streak at 31-2.

March 12, 2020 – The NCAA Tournament is canceled due to COVID-19 pandemic

A day after the NCAA announced the tournament would be played without fans due to the rapid spread of COVID-19, it canceled the Big Dance.

Before many could even blink, Oregon’s season – and Ionescu’s collegiate career – were over.

“There’s always going to be a little hole in my heart for this group of seniors,” Graves said a day after the tournament was canceled. “This will never happen again. It just won’t happen again. There won’t be another group like this ever. We might have equally impressive teams, but what this group did to capture the imagination and the attention, and the love of a brand-new fan base is really incredible.”

On March 16, Ionescu said what every Duck fan was thinking in an Instagram post:

“This year has been the toughest year of my life, and I wasn’t expecting to have to end my senior year like this. Very saddened but whole heartedly understand … Although our unfinished business will remain just that, I have been blessed to be a part of this journey.”

Ionescu would end up being the No. 1 pick in a virtual WNBA draft, while Sabally went No. 2 to the Dallas Wings. Hebard was drafted eighth overall by the Chicago Sky.

Oregon signs top recruiting class in the country

Still, spirits were high that Oregon could perhaps return to the heights Ionescu and company took it too and fulfill her promise of returning to the national stage. The Ducks signed the top-ranked recruiting class in the country – featuring five five-star prospects in Sydney Parrish, Kylee Watson, Maddie Scherr, Te-Hina Paopao, and Angela Dugalic. The Ducks were set to debut another five-star player, Sedona Prince, who had transferred from Texas and sat out the 2019-20 season. Nyara Sabally, Satou’s sister, also was getting healthy enough to play after sitting out the last two years with knee injuries.

Nov. 28, 2020 – Ducks finally play after restrictive offseason

In an offseason marred with questions about whether they would even be able to play, and absent of any team bonding activities because of COVID-19, Oregon finally debuted in late November to the tune of a 116-51 win over Seattle U.

Prince scored 18 points in her Duck debut, and the Fab Five freshmen in Parrish, Watson, Scherr, Paopao, and Dugalic combined to score 27.

Clad in masks and unable to even high-five during games, the Ducks – like most teams on the West Coast – figured out their 2020-21 season on the fly.

March 28, 2021 – A bumpy season ends in the Sweet 16

After starting 8-0, the Ducks finish the 2020-21 season in the Sweet 16 with a 15-9 record. The schedule shuffled numerous times, and players bounced in and out of lineups due to injuries or sickness.

Graves said it was the toughest year in his coaching career.

“Nobody had a good time this year,” he said in his postseason press conference. “It sucked for everybody. Even if you’re on the good teams. It was just a tough year.”

In the press conference over Zoom, Graves voiced his displeasure with the transfer portal and proliferation of players leaving and joining other programs.

“Every coach that I talked to said that this was the worst year to have a young team," Graves said. "We just didn’t have time to work with them. We really had no offseason last year, no summer preparation.”

May 3, 2021 – the start of a mass exodus

By May, Oregon had lost four players to the transfer portal, including Taylor Chavez (Arizona), Jaz Shelley (Nebraska), Taylor Mikesell (Ohio State), and 2020 recruiting class five-star Dugalic (UCLA).

Graves attributes the loss of players to having too many players on the roster after the success of the 2019-20 falling on the backs of a nine-player roster.

“I hurt us by trying to play too many players,” he said. “We never really got into the rhythm that we needed to.”

Graves talked with the media in April, before the announced transfers of Dugalic and Mikesell, but said Chavez and Shelley transferred for more playing time elsewhere.

“It’s a part of what you do,” he said. “I don’t think any program is immune now from losing players.”

With the loss of three guards, the Ducks signed another five-star guard in Taylor Bigby and recruited former USC standout Endyia Rogers out of the portal to fill out the roster’s depth. Graves said he was hoping to keep a smaller, more close-knit roster together in the future.

March 19, 2022 – “At times our players have acted and performed entitled”

For the first time in six years, the Ducks bowed out in the first round of the NCAA Tournament with a double overtime loss to Belmont, 73-70.

Oregon was ranked as high as ninth in the AP Poll but finished the season 20-12 and out in the first round of the NCAA tourney.

After the game, Graves aimed some criticism at himself for how the Ducks closed games, then at his players.

“I think at times our players have acted and performed entitled,” he said. “I mean, we have had a nice run … This group hasn’t won anything. We haven’t won a Pac-12 championship. We haven’t won in the NCAA Tournament with great depth. You know, I think we’ve got to come back and work harder and be tougher. I think at times we’re not tough.

“I just think that happens, and I think it’s a mindset. I think we’ve got to come back hungrier because we’re no longer the hunted. We’re hunting like everybody else.”

Graves would later say these comments were taken out of context and he needed to do a better job of putting the pieces in the right place.

March 28, 2022 – One really bad day

Just over a week after Oregon’s season-ending loss, four players left the program on the same day. Another left shortly after.

These included prized 2020 recruits Parrish (Indiana), Watson (Notre Dame), and Scherr (Kentucky). On top of that, Nyara Sabally declared for the WNBA draft, and was later picked fifth overall by the New York Liberty. Bigby entered the portal several days later after just one season at Oregon and ended up at USC.

The Ducks retooled their roster with another highly ranked class, adding four-star forward Kennedy Basham, five-star tandem Chance Gray and Grace VanSlooten, and four-star forward Jennah Isai. To fill out the team’s depth, Oregon also recruited Arizona State transfer Taya Hanson out of the portal.

Oct. 28, 2022 – Sedona Prince leaves program after injury

Just before the start of the season, Oregon’s star post suffered a torn ligament in her elbow and opted to forgo her remaining eligibility and enter the WNBA draft. Prince averaged 9.5 points a game at Oregon along with 4.9 rebounds. The post would later withdraw from the draft and commit to play at TCU for former Oregon assistant coach Mark Campbell during the 2023-24 season.

Dec. 20, 2022 – Jennah Isai leaves Oregon

Just 10 games into her collegiate career in Eugene, four-star forward Isai left Oregon for personal reasons. The forward averaged over 10 points a game off the bench in her first five games, before her averages fell heavily over her final five games in December.

Nine days later she committed to BYU but left the program in 2023. She later said in an Instagram post she had battled with bulimia for years and wanted to help others going through a similar problem.

In a little over two months and before Pac-12 play had even started the Ducks had lost two contributors.

March 26, 2023 – Ducks miss NCAA Tournament

Rising as high as No. 16 in the AP Poll in the early parts of the season, Oregon missed the NCAA Tournament for the first time since the 2015-16 season and lost to Washington in the WNIT quarterfinals.

Though they started hot, the Ducks at one point dropped nine of 10 midway through the season and struggled with consistency.

April 3, 2023 – Te-Hina Paopao and Endyia Rogers enter the portal

Former five-star guard Paopao, the last vestige of Oregon’s prized 2020 recruiting class, left before her eligibility was finished shortly after the Ducks’ WNIT exit. She later joined powerhouse South Carolina. Former USC transfer Rogers joined her in the portal after at first deciding to enter the WNBA draft. Rogers later joined Texas A&M.

Paopao's loss, in particular, stung. The guard had come on strong in her third season at Oregon, scoring 13.1 points a game and serving as one of the leaders of a young team.

Paopao cited getting prepared for the WNBA draft as a leading reason she decided to join the Gamecocks.

"This time around, I wanted to win. I wanted to be surrounded by a culture that can groom me professionally on and off the court," Paopao said. "One of the reasons why I went into the portal was because I wanted to be prepared professionally for the (WNBA), and I know that Coach Dawn (Staley) can do that."

Along with the departures of Hanson, Ahlise Hurst, and Taylor Hosendove, Oregon lost 1,545 of its 2,603 points from the 2022-23 season heading into 2023-24.

In an interview with Oregon Public Broadcasting just before the season started, Graves again voiced his distaste with the direction of college basketball – specifically with the transfer portal.

“It’s a little frustrating, to be honest with you,” Graves said in the interview. “Let’s say you bring a freshman in and they get a little bit of time and you can really work with them to improve, to work into your system. Those days are over, you know.

"Kids want to play, and they want to play immediately, and if they’re not playing schools somehow get the word to them, ‘hey, we would be interested,’ and it’s kind of too bad. It kind of dirtied up the process a little bit. But I am for the freedom of movement in theory, and it changes.”

The Ducks added four-star guard Sofia Bell, four-star forward Sarah Rambus, transfer Peyton Scott from Miami of Ohio, guard Ula Chamberlin from San Diego, former five-star guard Priscilla Williams, and senior transfer Kennedi Williams (Liberty).

Nov. 6, 2023 – Peyton Scott tears her ACL

For the second season in a row, the Ducks suffered a major setback before the season really got going, as Scott tore her ACL five minutes into a dominant season-opening win against Northern Arizona.

Tasked with filling in as Oregon’s lead guard in the preseason, the Ducks were forced to move players out of position, and struggled to find consistent scoring without Scott, who averaged 16.7 points per game in four years at Miami of Ohio.

True freshman starter Bell would also be lost for the season later in the year as Oregon’s guard depth waned.

March 6, 2024 – a miserable season ends in historic fashion

The Ducks end their worst season to date under Graves with a 79-30 loss to Colorado in the first round of the Pac-12 Tournament. It's the largest margin of defeat in the tournament's history and their 14th loss in a row – a program record.

“We just have to go back to the drawing board, so to speak,” Graves said after the loss. “We’ve got to keep the players that want to win and want to compete. I think we have some good young pieces, but as coaches we have to do a better job. We haven’t done a good job this year in getting this team together and getting the team to where we need them to be. That’s on me, that’s on my staff. We’ve got to go get some players. We’re not as good as the teams we’re playing against, and it shows. It showed today.”

The Ducks finish dead-last in the conference standings, with the worst scoring offense (59.8 points per game), second-worst scoring defense (67.31 points per game), and worst 3-point shooting percentage (29.4%) in the Pac-12.

What's next?

The Ducks signed a pair of promising recruits in four-star guard Katie Fiso along with Luxembourg forward Faith Ehi Etute, and Scott announced she would seek a medical hardship waiver to return to Oregon next season as a sixth-year senior.

Graves continues to recruit well, as the Ducks got a verbal commitment from one of the best point guard prospects in 2025 in Janiyah Williams out of Oklahoma.

In an interview with 247 Sports, Williams says Oregon's recent downturn isn't a cause for concern.

“I really have no concerns," she said. "Every program, even the most elite ones, there’s going to be years where you’re in a deficit like with the transfer portal and things like that. Stuff happens. Oregon State, for example, they didn’t have a very good season at all last year. This year they’ve come out swinging.

"Things can really change because of just a couple of players. Coach Kelly and the coaching staff really do a good job of recruiting, and there’s some pretty good recruits coming in the 2024 class and maybe in the 2025 class too. I’m very hopeful for the future of Oregon women’s basketball."

The Ducks are also making the move to the Big Ten conference after the collapse of the Pac-12. In its last year of existence as we know it, the conference had six ranked teams in the top-20 for the majority of the season, with five teams occupying the top-5 at some point in the season. The Big Ten has just three ranked teams as of the third week of March, and is historically much less deep than the Pac-12.

No Oregon players have entered the transfer portal from the 2023-24 season as of Friday.

Alec Dietz covers University of Oregon football, volleyball, women’s basketball and baseball for The Register-Guard. You may reach him at adietz@registerguard.com and you can follow him on Twitter @AlecDietz.

This article originally appeared on Register-Guard: Why Oregon women's basketball won't make March Madness NCAA Tournament