Oregon and Washington ‘hold all of the cards’ in Pac-12 realignment talks, per ESPN
The topic of further conference realignment has been held at bay over the past several months with the claim that any further movement was only rumor or speculation.
It felt like water was building up and the dam holding it all back was starting to crack with every day that passed without a new TV deal for the Pac-12.
On Wednesday evening, the dam was breached with the report the Colorado Buffaloes are fleeing for the Big 12, a move that will be voted on and likely announced later this week.
Now the biggest questions are how extensive the fallout will be, how many teams end up leaving the Pac-12 and can conference rebuild the dam before it is washed into history.
For fans of the Oregon Ducks and Washington Huskies, that’s a pertinent question, and many of their fans are split. Both schools have aspirations of playing at the “big boys’ table” in the Big Ten alongside USC, UCLA, Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State. But will this Colorado move be enough movement to give the two schools the leverage they need to jump ship? Or does the Pac-12 still have enough juice to keep its nine teams in place?
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According to ESPN’s Pete Thamel, Oregon and Washington “hold all of the cards” when it comes to further realignment. The two schools know they are the biggest brands left in the West. If they want a bigger share of revenue than the Pac-12 is willing to give them, a move to a bigger conference — Big Ten or Big 12 — is justifiable. They have the juice to make that move as well.
It’s uncertain when the eyes of the Big Ten could turn to Oregon and Washington. They’d likely go for a partial share, but the Big Ten presidents and athletic directors weren’t eager to add them when former commissioner Kevin Warren made a late push to get an additional television deal via a streaming partner last year. It’s likely they’ll end up there eventually, but the tricky variable is when that would happen.
If the Big Ten commissioner woke up on Thursday morning and publicly asked Oregon and Washington to join his conference, this would be an easy decision for the Ducks and Huskies.
However, nothing is quite that simple. There’s the revenue share for new members, and it would also come with the ruffling of feathers in Los Angeles after the USC Trojans distinctly said they wanted to be the only LA-area recruiting power in the Big Ten Conference. Adding Oregon would change that immediately.
Per Thamel, the best thing Oregon and Washington can do at the moment is wait and win.
So Washington and Oregon have to keep winning and waiting, as eventually there will be another round of realignment. Since USC and UCLA joined, there’s already a new Big Ten commissioner, Tony Petitti, and USC’s athletic director, Mike Bohn, resigned.
For the long haul, it would make sense for the Pac-12 to add San Diego State and SMU and perhaps a growth property like UNLV, Colorado State or Fresno State for their markets or Boise State for their consistent football success and strong brand. Bigger is safer, but that’s going to clash with the short-term goals of Oregon and Washington.
A nine-team league would appear vulnerable. But any strategy that alienates Oregon and Washington wouldn’t make sense either.
Will we get an answer today or this week? That seems incredibly unlikely. The University of Oregon Board of Trustees is meeting on Thursday at 10 a.m., so there could be an opportunity to discuss conference movement, but the more likely topic is Dan Lanning’s recent contract extension.
Thanks to Colorado, though, we are now in a period when the topic of conference realignment — and where the Oregon Ducks are going to end up — is once again at the top of the list when it comes to water cooler fodder.
All of this with less than a week to go before fall practices start. Welcome to football season.
