Oregon suffers stunning loss; USC and UCLA are the only Pac-12 playoff hopefuls left

No one saw this coming.

The Washington Huskies had given up 45 points at Arizona State, 40 at UCLA. They gave up 39 to Arizona. They were a turnstile on defense, and Oregon’s offense had been lighting up opponents left and right. The Ducks figured to easily score 45 or more against Washington and move one step closer to the Pac-12 Championship Game. Oregon, the only team with a perfect record in Pac-12 play, was supposed to cruise past Washington. Instead, it lost at home in Autzen Stadium as a 13-point favorite over the Huskies.

Washington held Oregon to 34 points and benefited from a shocking decision by Oregon coach Dan Lanning. U-Dub 37, Ducks 34.

Our friends and Ducks Wire have much more on this game, and we invite you to read their coverage. 

Meanwhile, read all about the numerous news stories to flow from this big upset. We’ll lay them out below:

START WITH THE OBVIOUS

USC and UCLA are — as of Saturday evening, with UCLA hosting Arizona — the only two Pac-12 teams which can still make the College Football Playoff.

Oregon and Utah have two losses. They’re done. It’s that simple.

USC and UCLA are the only playoff hopefuls still standing.

PURE SEMIFINALS

Oregon’s loss to Washington creates pure semifinals for the Pac-12 Championship Game.

USC and UCLA both have one conference loss, as do Utah and Oregon.

Two teams will win next week and have only one conference loss. Two teams will lose next week and have two conference losses.

Unless UCLA loses to Arizona and Utah loses to Stanford (both games are going on as this article is being written and published Saturday night), we will have genuine semifinals in the Pac-12 next week.

TIEBREAKERS UNLIKELY

This point is connected to the above point: Unless UCLA or Utah suffers a shocking loss, the top two teams in the Pac-12 standings will separate themselves from the third and fourth teams. No tiebreakers necessary.

OREGON LOSES LEVERAGE

The Ducks had a one-game lead over their three immediate pursuers. They could have lost to Utah on Nov. 19 and still had a decent chance of getting into the Pac-12 title game. Now they most likely have to beat Utah to earn a ticket to Vegas. Leverage, gone.

UCLA GAINS LEVERAGE

UCLA loses the head-to-head tiebreaker with Oregon, but if Utah beats Oregon, the Bruins will finish ahead of the Ducks.

UCLA just has to take care of business. Win out, make the Pac-12 title game.

USC GAINS LEVERAGE

The Trojans definitely benefit from this — not only in terms of the playoff, but also in terms of controlling their fate.

Before Oregon lost to Washington, USC was staring at a scenario in which Utah beat Oregon and created multiple tiebreakers. Now, a Utah win pushes Oregon to two Pac-12 losses. USC just needs to beat UCLA, and it is guaranteed to be in the Pac-12 Championship Game.

Beat the Bruins. Go to Vegas in December. It’s that simple.

BO NIX HEISMAN DREAM DERAILED

Bo Nix wasn’t bad against Washington, but he wasn’t spectacular, and losing a game is a death knell for his Heisman Trophy chances, which depended on going 12-1, with or without a playoff berth.

This means something else, too:

CALEB WILLIAMS VS DTR FOR A HEISMAN FINALIST TICKET

It isn’t guaranteed, but it’s certainly possible: Caleb Williams versus Dorian Thompson-Robinson could be for a Heisman finalist berth in New York in December. USC-UCLA is a gigantic game on so many levels.

Speaking of that:

BIGGEST USC-UCLA GAME SINCE 2005

UCLA had only one loss, USC was unbeaten. This is easily the biggest USC-UCLA game in 17 years.

PAC-12 PERFECTION IS ELUSIVE

Since the Pac-10 expanded to become the Pac-12 in 2011, no Pac-12 team has gone 9-0 in conference play.

Oregon, in the last year of the Pac-10 in 2010, went 9-0 in league play.

NEXT WEEK

Oregon losing likely means USC-UCLA will be a 5 p.m. Pacific Standard Time kickoff on Fox. That television announcement should come on Sunday.

UTAH-OREGON LATE NIGHT

As of Saturday night, no official announcement has been made — again, an announcement should happen on Sunday — but one should expect Utah-Oregon to be a 7:30 p.m. Pacific Standard Time kickoff on ESPN.

PAC-12 COACH OF THE YEAR

Dan Lanning has been very good this year, but this might allow the winner of the USC-UCLA game, Lincoln Riley or Chip Kelly, to win the award. It’s not an easy call, but Lanning — like Oregon — lost leverage here.

KALEN DEBOER STATEMENT

Kalen DeBoer has a chance to win 10 games in Year 1 at Washington. He will gain recruiting momentum from this and earn a chance to solidify his place on Montlake.

ABOUT THE GAME ITSELF

Let’s briefly deal with the end of Washington-Oregon. Some bad coaching decisions were made.

Start with this: Bo Nix was asking Dan Lanning to come back into the game before Oregon faced 4th and half a yard inside its own 35. Nix is a great QB sneak quarterback, and a very good runner as well. Even though he wasn’t 100-percent fit after getting hit, he still offered the threat of a quarterback keeper. Ty Thompson, his backup, did not. Washington was able to sell out to stop a handoff, which is exactly what happened. Lanning didn’t play his cards right.

DEBOER FRAILTY

DeBoer has done a brilliant job at Washington this season, but he called timeout with six seconds left when the clock was going to restart on the ready-for-play signal, not the snap, following an injury. DeBoer enabled Oregon to run an extra play. The Ducks weren’t able to take advantage, however.

HUGE MISTAKES

Bo Nix fumbled inside the Washington 4-yard line.

VIDEO

WASHINGTON BLUNDER

Michael Penix was intercepted at the Oregon 1-yard line on a 1st and goal play from the 2. Both teams made huge mistakes. The Oregon fourth-down failure late in regulation was the difference.

HISTORICAL CONTEXT AND A REVERSAL OF FORTUNE

In 2018, Washington kicker Peyton Henry missed a 37-yard field goal which would have beaten Oregon in Autzen Stadium. The Ducks won in overtime.

Four years later, Henry — still on the roster as a sixth-year senior — made a winning kick in Autzen in the final minutes.

Story originally appeared on Trojans Wire