At one point on Sunday, ESPN analytics had Rutgers football at a 98.3 percent chance to lose in the fourth quarter
PISCATAWAY, N.J. — Early in the fourth quarter, mathematics said that Rutgers football was going to lose their Big Ten game against Michigan. Conventional wisdom said the same thing. So did ESPN.
As did nearly all of the announced 52,879 fans at SHI Stadium who left in the third quarter, assuming a blowout.
But Rutgers did not get blown out. And they didn’t lose, completing a remarkable comeback for a 27-24 win. Rutgers overcame an 18-point deficit in the fourth quarter to secure the win.
An epic win that now moves Rutgers to 5-2 (2-2 Big Ten) and puts bowl eligibility within arm’s reach.
According to ESPN analytics, Michigan State was as close to a lock as humanly possible to emerge from SHI Stadium with a win. Early in the fourth quarter, the probability of a Michigan State win was at 98.3 percent.
And even after Rutgers recovered a fumble on a punt, resulting in an Aaron Young touchdown to make it a 24-13 lead for the visitors, the percentage was still at 83.9 percent.
But analytics doesn’t account for heart or momentum, and Rutgers had both in the fourth quarter.
Wild.#Rutgers pic.twitter.com/rhguM5xMY2
— Kristian Dyer (@KristianRDyer) October 15, 2023
But then, momentum began to swing towards Rutgers and an eventual Scarlet Knights’ victory.
“Often times as a coach you’re so worried about your team. Sometimes you’ve just got to take a breath and say, ‘Well, you know what how do they feel right now?’ It’s slipping away from them, right?” Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano said after the game.
“So you have to play all that into what your decisions are. I thought our guys did a very good job. Certainly, the punt block touchdown gave everybody a little juice but you still had to have stops and run drives. There’s a lot of football in that fourth quarter to get it done, especially that last drive. I think what was it, what did it start with, 7:30 maybe?
“In my own mind, I’m thinking (that) we could use one of those old-fashioned Ray Rice drives right now. We had a lot of them. Just bleed the clock out, and then walk out with a knee. And that’s just what we did, so that was gratifying.”
Rutgers next plays at Indiana on Saturday. The Hoosiers lost at No. 2 Michigan on Saturday.
NCAA Football: Michigan State at Rutgers
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights players run on to the field…
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights players run on to the field before the game against the Michigan State Spartans at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Share this
image
gallery
NCAA Football: Michigan State at Rutgers
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Michigan State Spartans interim head coach Harlon Barnett leads…
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Michigan State Spartans interim head coach Harlon Barnett leads his team on to the field before the game against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Share this
image
gallery
NCAA Football: Michigan State at Rutgers
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Michigan State Spartans wide receiver Montorie Foster Jr. (83)…
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Michigan State Spartans wide receiver Montorie Foster Jr. (83) is hit by Rutgers Scarlet Knights defensive back Flip Dixon (10) while catching a touchdown pass during the first half at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Share this
image
gallery
NCAA Football: Michigan State at Rutgers
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Michigan State Spartans tight end Maliq Carr (6) carries…
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Michigan State Spartans tight end Maliq Carr (6) carries the ball as Michigan State Spartans defensive back Chance Rucker (25) pursues during the first half at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Share this
image
gallery
NCAA Football: Michigan State at Rutgers
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights running back Kyle Monangai (5) carries…
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights running back Kyle Monangai (5) carries the ball during the first half against the Michigan State Spartans at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Share this
image
gallery
NCAA Football: Michigan State at Rutgers
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights defensive lineman Troy Rainey (51) reacts…
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights defensive lineman Troy Rainey (51) reacts after a defensive stop with defensive lineman Kyonte Hamilton (48) during the first half against the Michigan State Spartans at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Share this
image
gallery
NCAA Football: Michigan State at Rutgers
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights head coach Greg Schiano talks with…
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights head coach Greg Schiano talks with an official during the first half against the Michigan State Spartans at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Share this
image
gallery
NCAA Football: Michigan State at Rutgers
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights wide receiver Ian Strong (29) gains…
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights wide receiver Ian Strong (29) gains yards after catch during the first half against the Michigan State Spartans at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Share this
image
gallery
NCAA Football: Michigan State at Rutgers
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; The Rutgers Scarlet Knights band performs during the first…
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; The Rutgers Scarlet Knights band performs during the first half against the Michigan State Spartans at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Share this
image
gallery
NCAA Football: Michigan State at Rutgers
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights quarterback Gavin Wimsatt (2) throws the…
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights quarterback Gavin Wimsatt (2) throws the ball as Michigan State Spartans defensive lineman Derrick Harmon (41) pursues during the first half at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Share this
image
gallery
NCAA Football: Michigan State at Rutgers
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Michigan State Spartans defensive back Angelo Grose (15) intercepts…
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Michigan State Spartans defensive back Angelo Grose (15) intercepts a pass intended for Rutgers Scarlet Knights wide receiver Max Patterson (0) during the first half at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Share this
image
gallery
NCAA Football: Michigan State at Rutgers
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Michigan State Spartans wide receiver Alante Brown (0) is…
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Michigan State Spartans wide receiver Alante Brown (0) is tackled by Rutgers Scarlet Knights defensive back Robert Longerbeam (7) during the first half at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Share this
image
gallery
NCAA Football: Michigan State at Rutgers
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights defensive back Desmond Igbinosun (4) celebrates…
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights defensive back Desmond Igbinosun (4) celebrates his fumble recovery during the first half against the Michigan State Spartans at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Share this
image
gallery
NCAA Football: Michigan State at Rutgers
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Fans cheer during the first half of the game…
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Fans cheer during the first half of the game between the Rutgers Scarlet Knights and the Michigan State Spartans at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Share this
image
gallery
NCAA Football: Michigan State at Rutgers
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco (center) is…
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco (center) is seen on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights sideline during the first half against the Michigan State Spartans at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Share this
image
gallery
NCAA Football: Michigan State at Rutgers
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights tight end Johnny Langan (21) makes…
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights tight end Johnny Langan (21) makes a catch as Michigan State Spartans defensive back Khalil Majeed (34) tackles during the second half at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Share this
image
gallery
NCAA Football: Michigan State at Rutgers
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights quarterback Gavin Wimsatt (2) carries the…
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights quarterback Gavin Wimsatt (2) carries the ball as Michigan State Spartans defensive back Angelo Grose (15) pursues during the second half at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Share this
image
gallery
NCAA Football: Michigan State at Rutgers
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Michigan State Spartans quarterback Katin Houser (12) throws the…
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Michigan State Spartans quarterback Katin Houser (12) throws the ball as Rutgers Scarlet Knights linebacker Deion Jennings (17) defends during the second half at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Share this
image
gallery
NCAA Football: Michigan State at Rutgers
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights running back Aaron Young (4) celebrates…
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights running back Aaron Young (4) celebrates with teammates after recovering Michigan State fumble in the end zone for a touchdown during the second half at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Share this
image
gallery
NCAA Football: Michigan State at Rutgers
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights wide receiver Isaiah Washington (14) gains…
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights wide receiver Isaiah Washington (14) gains yards after catch asMichigan State Spartans defensive back Khalil Majeed (34) pursues during the second half at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Share this
image
gallery
NCAA Football: Michigan State at Rutgers
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights quarterback Gavin Wimsatt (2) throws the…
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights quarterback Gavin Wimsatt (2) throws the ball during the second half against the Michigan State Spartans at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Share this
image
gallery
NCAA Football: Michigan State at Rutgers
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights running back Kyle Monangai (5) is…
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights running back Kyle Monangai (5) is tackled by Michigan State Spartans defensive back Chance Rucker (25) in front of wide receiver Ian Strong (29) during the second half at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Share this
image
gallery
NCAA Football: Michigan State at Rutgers
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights wide receiver Christian Dremel (6) is…
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights wide receiver Christian Dremel (6) is tackled by Michigan State Spartans linebacker Cal Haladay (27) and defensive back Angelo Grose (15) during the second half at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Share this
image
gallery
NCAA Football: Michigan State at Rutgers
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights wide receiver Isaiah Washington (14) catches…
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights wide receiver Isaiah Washington (14) catches a touchdown pass as Michigan State Spartans defensive back Jaden Mangham (1) defends during the second half at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Share this
image
gallery
NCAA Football: Michigan State at Rutgers
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights wide receiver Isaiah Washington (14) catches…
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights wide receiver Isaiah Washington (14) catches a touchdown pass as Michigan State Spartans defensive back Jaden Mangham (1) defends during the second half at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Share this
image
gallery
NCAA Football: Michigan State at Rutgers
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights wide receiver Isaiah Washington (14) celebrates…
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights wide receiver Isaiah Washington (14) celebrates after a touchdown reception with tight end Johnny Langan (21) and running back Aaron Young (4) during the second half against the Michigan State Spartans at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Share this
image
gallery
NCAA Football: Michigan State at Rutgers
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights wide receiver Christian Dremel (6) scores…
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights wide receiver Christian Dremel (6) scores a two point conversion as wide receiver Ian Strong (29) blocks Michigan State Spartans defensive back Dillon Tatum (21) during the second half at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Share this
image
gallery
NCAA Football: Michigan State at Rutgers
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights defensive back Thomas Amankwaa (24) stripes…
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights defensive back Thomas Amankwaa (24) stripes the ball away from Michigan State Spartans wide receiver Tyrell Henry (2) during a kick off during the second half at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Share this
image
gallery
NCAA Football: Michigan State at Rutgers
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights defensive back Thomas Amankwaa (24) celebrates…
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights defensive back Thomas Amankwaa (24) celebrates with defensive back Joe Lusardi (37) after stripping the ball away from Michigan State Spartans wide receiver Tyrell Henry (not pictured) during a kick off during the second half at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Share this
image
gallery
NCAA Football: Michigan State at Rutgers
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights running back Kyle Monangai (5) breaks…
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights running back Kyle Monangai (5) breaks a tackle by Michigan State Spartans defensive back Khalil Majeed (34) during a touchdown run during the second half at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Share this
image
gallery
NCAA Football: Michigan State at Rutgers
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights running back Kyle Monangai (5) breaks…
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights running back Kyle Monangai (5) breaks a tackle by Michigan State Spartans linebacker Jordan Hall (5) during a touchdown run during the second half at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Share this
image
gallery
NCAA Football: Michigan State at Rutgers
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights running back Kyle Monangai (5) celebrates…
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights running back Kyle Monangai (5) celebrates with quarterback Gavin Wimsatt (2) after a touchdown run during the second half against the Michigan State Spartans at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Share this
image
gallery
NCAA Football: Michigan State at Rutgers
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; A Rutgers Scarlet Knights fan cheers during the second…
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; A Rutgers Scarlet Knights fan cheers during the second half of the game between the Scarlet Knights and the Michigan State Spartans at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Share this
image
gallery
NCAA Football: Michigan State at Rutgers
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights fans cheer during the second half…
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights fans cheer during the second half of the game between the Scarlet Knights and the Michigan State Spartans at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Share this
image
gallery
NCAA Football: Michigan State at Rutgers
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights running back Kyle Monangai (5) fights…
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights running back Kyle Monangai (5) fights for yards against Michigan State Spartans defensive lineman Jalen Sami (99) during the second half at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Share this
image
gallery
NCAA Football: Michigan State at Rutgers
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights running back Kyle Monangai (5) fights…
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights running back Kyle Monangai (5) fights for yards as Michigan State Spartans linebacker Jacoby Windmon (4) and defensive lineman Khris Bogle (2) pursue during the second half at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Share this
image
gallery
NCAA Football: Michigan State at Rutgers
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights running back Kyle Monangai (5) fights…
Oct 14, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights running back Kyle Monangai (5) fights for yards as Michigan State Spartans defensive back Malik Spencer (43) tackles during the second half at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Share this
image
gallery
