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Ole Miss football bold predictions for 2023, including Lane Kiffin’s biggest win in Oxford

david eckert, mississippi clarion-ledger
·4 min read

OXFORD — The time for predictions for Ole Miss football's 2023 fortunes is nearly at an end.

It is game week in Oxford, with the Rebels set to open their season at home against Mercer on Saturday (1 p.m., SEC Network+).

Before they jog out of the tunnel at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, here are our three bold predictions for the 2023 season.

1. Ole Miss football steals a win from one of the three top-five teams on its schedule

According to ESPN's Football Power Index, Ole Miss enters the season with the most difficult schedule in college football.

Just a glance at the preseason poll is enough to explain why. The Rebels travel to No. 1 Georgia and No. 3 Alabama and will host No. 5 LSU.

Since arriving in Oxford after the 2019 season, coach Lane Kiffin has beaten just one SEC foe that went on to win more than eight games: Arkansas in 2021. He will add another such victory in 2023 by taking down one of those three top-five foes.

LSU is the most achievable of the trio, and the one we picked Ole Miss to win in our game-by-game predictions. That's simply because it's the only one of those games it will play at home. LSU is 17-6 against the Rebels since 2000, but they have been much more competitive at The Vaught, where they are 3-2 in their past five confrontations with the Tigers.

And though trips to Georgia and Alabama may look hopeless at the minute, both of those powerhouse programs are replacing established quarterbacks with relative unknowns. If those newbies don't work out, there could be some vulnerability for the Rebels to exploit.

Of the three long-shot lottery tickets, we're backing Ole Miss to cash at least one.

2. Quinshon Judkins' rushing totals go down, but he becomes a more complete player

It can be tempting to view linear statistical progression for a freshman running back as a guarantee in college football. An analysis during the summer by The Clarion Ledger shows this is the furthest thing from the truth.

Since 2000, nine other true freshman running backs had surpassed the 1,500-yard rushing threshold before Judkins rushed for 1,567 yards in 2022. Only two posted bigger rushing numbers in their sophomore seasons: Wisconsin's Jonathan Taylor and San Diego State's Ronnie Hillman. With that in mind, it's probably unfair to Judkins to expect an 1,800-yard campaign in 2023.

But that doesn't mean he won't be a better player.

Judkins had been heavily involved in the Ole Miss passing game during preseason practice. He registered just 15 receptions last season.

He can improve in the blocking game, too, as many running backs do as they mature. Those progressions won't show up in the stat sheet, but they will in Ole Miss' win total at the end of the season.

PETE GOLDING: What makes Pete Golding a good fit for how Lane Kiffin builds Ole Miss football roster

3. Ole Miss football leads the SEC in sacks

This is probably the boldest of our bold predictions, but they aren't called "lukewarm, reasonable predictions," are they?

Ole Miss finished fourth in the conference last season with 35 sacks. Arkansas led the SEC with 42. That's not a crazy delta to make up.

The new-look Rebels defensive front, now operating with four linemen in Pete Golding's base scheme, spent preseason practice generating plenty of pressure in team periods.

The Rebels' top pass rusher is Cedric Johnson, whose 14.7% pressure rate last season was among the SEC's elite, even if his sack numbers weren't. Jared Ivey's second season at the SEC level should offer more production, and the introduction of first-team All-Sun Belt edge rusher Isaac Ukwu provides Ole Miss with depth that most of its opposition probably can't match.

Golding's system is one that prioritizes getting after the quarterback. And the fast-moving Rebels offense is bound to result in more defensive snaps for the Ole Miss defense, which by extension leads to more opportunities for sacks.

David Eckert covers Ole Miss for the Clarion Ledger. Email him at deckert@gannett.com or reach him on Twitter @davideckert98.

This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Ole Miss football bold predictions 2023: Lane Kiffin’s biggest home win